The Weekly Briefing from Capital Economics

As the much-anticipated start of Fed easing approaches, the debate has centred on whether Powell & Co. will opt for a 25 or a 50-basis point rate cut.  On the latest episode of The Weekly Briefing from Capital Economics, Group Chief Economist Neil Shearing discusses the rationale for a larger move, but also explains why we’re expecting this easing cycle to begin with a 25bps move.  Senior Mark...

That August payrolls report was one of the more keenly awaited data releases in a while – but what do its details suggest about how the Fed is likely to start monetary easing when it meets later this month?    On the latest episode of The Weekly Briefing from Capital Economics, Chief North America Economist Paul Ashworth and Group Chief Economist Neil Shearing talk recession risks, the Fed and ECB...

August’s US employment report release on Friday will be the coming week’s must-watch market event. On the latest episode of The Weekly Briefing from Capital Economics, Group Chief Economist Neil Shearing talks about what we’re expecting and how the outcome could influence the anticipated start of Fed easing this month.  Neil also discusses China’s confusing policy signals and, ahead of client brie...

On the latest episode of The Weekly Briefing from Capital Economics, Group Chief Economist Neil Shearing and Stephen Brown, our Deputy Chief North America Economist, give their take on what Jerome Powell said to the Fed’s annual gathering at Jackson Hole.  Neil and Stephen assess the likelihood of the Fed's easing cycle beginning with a 50 basis point cut, look ahead to the coming week's inflation...

As markets have come roaring back from the recent growth scare, Group Chief Economist Neil Shearing talks to Jennifer McKeown, Capital Economics’ Chief Global Economist, about the true state of the global economy and the outlook for policy.  Their discussion takes in the latest activity data from across the US, UK, Europe and China, as well as the signals from recent inflation reports, to assess t...

Global markets appear to have stabilised at the end of a week which began with a nasty bout of volatility. But is the selling in equities over or will fears about the US economy and an unwinding carry trade trigger more pain for investors?  Deputy Chief North America Economist Stephen Brown and Jonas Goltermann, Capital Economics’ Deputy Chief Markets Economist, talk to David Wilder about a dramat...

With that grim July payrolls report triggering fresh selling in US stocks and bond buying on Friday, Group Chief Economist Neil Shearing and Deputy Chief Markets Economist Jonas Goltermann join David Wilder to talk about whether there's anything to recession fears, what the Fed will do in the coming weeks and what this all means for equities. During this discussion, they touch on the key issues in...

Chinese PMI, Australian CPI, euro-zone GDP, the new UK chancellor’s statement to Parliament, the Bank of Japan, the Bank of England, the Fed…it’s a packed week of releases and central bank meetings and Group Chief Economist Neil Shearing talks through what will be some of the more closely watched market events.  In the process, he puts recent US data in context, talks about what the Fed and Bank o...

Which commercial real estate markets are set to recover first, and where will recovery be strongest? The Capital Economics real estate team has been looking closely at the comparative performance of the US, European and UK markets to advise clients on where to find opportunities – and where painful adjustments to the post-pandemic world are likely to linger.  In this special episode of The Weekly...

In the latest episode of The Weekly Briefing from Capital Economics, Chief Global Economist Jennifer McKeown speaks about the macroeconomic implications of the global IT outage before going on to explain what’s happening to the world inflation and monetary policy picture.  Jenny talks about the challenges posed by sticky services inflation, discusses why central banks can’t afford to wait to cut r...

In the latest episode of The Weekly Briefing from Capital Economics, Chief North America Economist Paul Ashworth reflects on a couple of crucial inflation reports, explaining how they’ve shifted the disinflation narrative and could even lead to even more aggressive policy easing from the Federal Reserve this year. Paul also discusses with David Wilder how his team is trying to cut through the nois...

This special episode of The Weekly Briefing from Capital Economics presents our Drop-In briefing to clients the morning after the UK general election. Group Chief Economist Neil Shearing spoke to Paul Dales, Ruth Gregory and Ashley Webb from our UK Economics team about the results. During this 25-minute briefing, they highlight key implications for the UK economic outlook as they address client qu...

In the aftermath of Joe Biden’s poorly received debate performance, Group Chief Economist Neil Shearing explains the market response and highlights potential economic risks around a second Trump presidency. He also reviews the latest US inflation data and talks about the AI’s transformational promise in the wake of a sharp market sell-off in stocks linked to the emergent technology.  Plus, Paul Da...

In the latest episode of The Weekly Briefing from Capital Economics, Group Chief Economist Neil Shearing previews upcoming US inflation data, outlines the fiscal challenges facing the next UK Chancellor and explains how Chinese manufacturing overcapacity isn’t just a problem for advanced economies. Plus, Deputy Chief Markets Economist Jonas Goltermann discusses the growing bubble in US stocks – an...

In the latest episode of The Weekly Briefing from Capital Economics, Group Chief Economist Neil Shearing talks about what’s happening in France and what that means for the bond market. He also assesses the Fed’s June meeting and previews what the Bank of England could decide on Thursday – as well as the discussing how the onset of elections could influence these institutions. (00:00-13:30) Plus, f...

Will the US continue to dominate the global economy in the coming years? Will China or Europe ever catch up? Is the US where investors will continue to see stronger stock market returns?  The question of US outperformance runs to the heart of the global economic outlook and is the subject of our Spotlight project for 2024. Spotlight is our annual step back from the ebb and flow of macro to dive in...

The European Central Bank is likely to become the first major advanced economy central bank to cut rates since the end of the pandemic when it meets this Thursday – easing policy ahead of the Federal Reserve and the Bank of England.  It’s a move that’s been well flagged by ECB officials, but it’s also one that they probably wouldn’t have signalled quite so strongly given what the latest inflation...

How important are elections for the trajectory of economies? The latest episode of The Weekly Briefing from Capital Economics explains why the just-announced general election may not be hugely consequential for the UK economy, but also why South Africa’s vote this coming Wednesday could prove momentous.  In the show, Group Chief Economist Neil Shearing previews key inflation data for the US and eu...

In the latest episode of The Weekly Briefing from Capital Economics, Group Chief Economist Neil Shearing addresses the White House announcement of higher tariffs on Chinese goods and what that signals about the direction of the global economic system. He also reviews the latest US inflation data and explains what to expect from the coming week’s UK CPI release. Chief Markets Economist John Higgins...

Group Chief Economist Neil Shearing explains what the latest signals from the Bank of England and that Q1 UK GDP report mean in the latest episode of The Weekly Briefing from Capital Economics. He also previews the coming week’s US inflation data, tells David Wilder why EM monetary easing will need to slow and puts the US current account deficit in context.  Also on the show, Chief Asia Economist...

In the latest episode of The Weekly Briefing from Capital Economics , Group Chief Economist Neil Shearing unpacks a tumultuous week that ended on a high. April's soft payrolls report may have given the market much-needed evidence that US disinflationary forces are gathering, but will that sway the Fed? And what can investors expect from the Bank of England this coming week?   Neil also frames Xi J...

In the latest episode of The Weekly Briefing, Group Chief Economist Neil Shearing previews the coming week’s Fed meeting, tackles market talk that the next move on the US policy rate could be up, addresses an intriguing report about Fed independence and decries the absence of a grown-up conversation around fiscal commitments.  Julian Evans-Pritchard, our China Economics head, is also on the show t...

In this latest episode of The Weekly Briefing from Capital Economics, Group Chief Economist Neil Shearing assesses just how much the global inflation picture has really changed in the wake of that US March CPI print. He talks to David Wilder about which central banks are likely to cut when, previews a busy week of economic data and explains why a strong dollar isn't as much of a problem for the gl...

Janet Yellen lent official voice to resurgent global worries about the threat of Chinese overcapacity when she pointedly criticised Beijing’s overinvestment and underpowered consumption during her trip there earlier this month.    But are the US Treasury Secretary’s criticisms justified? Will China’s leaders push through the necessary reforms to bring down the savings rate? And how will western go...

The EM team has taken over the podcast this week to highlight two of the biggest issues in emerging market investing.    William Jackson talks to Shilan Shah about how emerging market economies will fare as fossil fuels are phased out in favour of green technologies. From oil producers in the Gulf and Africa to geopolitics and supply chains, William and Shilan tackle some of the key risks and oppo...