The Weekly Briefing from Capital Economics

Does July's grim US jobs report vindicate the Fed's dissenters who pushed for rate cuts this week? Deputy Chief North America Economist Stephen Brown and Deputy Chief Markets Economist Jonas Goltermann unpack what the latest data reveal about the health of the US economy, the Fed’s strategy and how markets are reacting. Plus, with AI's global rollout pointing to formidable energy demands, Climate...

Donald Trump and his trade war are symptoms, not causes, of a deeper shift in the global economic order. The world has fractured into rival blocs, with the US and China emerging as the poles of competing systems, vying for resources, technological dominance and geopolitical influence. Now, with Trump back in office, long-held assumptions about American leadership are once again in question. What d...

Group Chief Economist Neil Shearing sifts through a deluge of DM inflation data to highlight where tariff effects are coming through, where price pressures look too hot and which central banks are best positioned to press on with policy easing. He also talks to David Wilder about what China’s manufacturing overdrive is doing to the global inflation picture. Also on the show, how serious is Donald...

Tariffs stormed back into the headlines this week as the pause on ‘Liberation Day’ levies expired with a flurry of warnings about steep rate hikes unless deals are struck by 1st August. Group Chief Economist Neil Shearing unpacks the implications, while Head of China Economics Julian Evans-Pritchard provides the view from Beijing. They also explore with David Wilder why inflation is a risk in the...

On the latest episode of The Weekly Briefing from Capital Economics, Group Chief Economist Neil Shearing joins David Wilder to unpack the key developments in global macro and markets, including: What to expect as the ‘Liberation Day’ tariff pause approaches expiry Whether the US and EU can strike a trade deal in time Why China is central to the US–Vietnam trade agreement What’s really troubling ab...

A ceasefire in the Middle East. A US-China deal. Relatively benign dataflow. The S&P 500 back at a record high. But are things really looking up? Group Chief Economist Neil Shearing is on The Weekly Briefing from Capital Economics to talk to David Wilder about fragilities under the surface of the global economy. He discusses worldwide fiscal risks, why there’s less to see with that US-China de...

After Israel and Iran agreed to stop fighting, Group Chief Economist Neil Shearing and Chief Climate and Commodities Economist David Oxley are on this special episode of the Weekly Briefing to discuss what follows, including why oil prices are set to remain under pressure as the market attention shifts back to fundamentals, and the impact of other notable uncertainties such as the fiscal bill maki...

What’s going to happen in this Middle East crisis? The fact that no one knows is the key point for investors grappling with an exceptionally fluid situation. In this week’s podcast, Group Chief Economist Neil Shearing explores the scenarios we've outlined so clients can assess how the Israel-Iran conflict could unfold. He also draws a distinction between risk and uncertainty – a critical distincti...

Following Israeli strikes against Iranian nuclear and military targets, and Iranian counterstrikes, Group Chief Economist Neil Shearing lays out what investors should be watching for across macro and markets. Among other issues, Neil also explains: Why – as things stand – this situation shouldn’t influence the Fed meeting in the coming week;   What the latest inflation data signal about how tariff...

Group Chief Economist Neil Shearing unpacks the latest data to assess the impact of Donald Trump’s tariffs, including signs that the effects of tariff front-running are now unwinding. He also discusses how businesses are navigating the ongoing uncertainty and why the Bank of England is trailing the ECB in cutting interest rates. Also on the show, Senior Economic Adviser Vicky Redwood explores what...

After another week of twists and turns in the Trump trade policy roll-out, Stephen Brown from our US team and Jonas Goltermann from our Markets team are on the show to talk about what comes next. In their conversation with David Wilder they touch on: Where tariff rates are likely to end up, even as “reciprocal” tariffs work their way through the courts; How worried the bond market really is about...

Donald Trump jolted markets on Friday with a threat to slap steep tariffs on the EU. Group Chief Economist Neil Shearing jumped back on the podcast to join David Wilder and unpack whether this is classic brinkmanship – or something more serious. In the original recording, Neil also discusses recent bond market moves following the House’s approval of Trump’s “big, beautiful” tax bill, and reflects...

Things are looking up after the US and China de-escalated their trade war, but is the global economy off the hook? In the latest episode of The Weekly Briefing from Capital Economics, Group Chief Economist Neil Shearing tells David Wilder why the tariff situation is looking brighter, but also identifies the key flashpoints to watch in the coming weeks.  John Higgins, our Chief Markets Economist, i...

One deal down. Many, many more to go. Except there was less to that much-touted US-UK trade deal than either government is suggesting and far tougher US talks with China and the EU are still to come. In this week’s episode of The Weekly Briefing from Capital Economics, Group Chief Economist Neil Shearing and Head of China Economics Julian Evans-Pritchard unpack what was actually agreed between the...

If you’re looking for evidence of the negative hit from Donald Trump’s tariffs, you’ll struggle to find it in the hard data. Group Chief Economist Neil Shearing is on The Weekly Briefing from Capital Economics minutes after the release of the US employment report for April to talk about how economies have been holding up in the weeks since the ‘Liberation Day’ announcement. In his conversation wit...

Another rollercoaster week in Trumpland wound down with markets buoyant on reports of more White House softening in its approach to tariffs and China taking steps to ease restrictions on some US imports. But are things really looking up? And, if so, why hasn't the dollar bounced with equities? Group Chief Economist Neil Shearing and Jonas Goltermann, our Deputy Chief Markets Economist, are on The...

Neil Shearing has been in back-to-back meetings with global institutions who – like everyone – are trying to make sense of Trump’s chaotic trade policy roll-out, not least the recent decision to pause "reciprocal" tariffs for 90 days. The Group Chief Economist at Capital Economics joins the latest episode of The Weekly Briefing to address some of the questions that have kept coming up in those sit...

As the dust settles after another of week of dramatic policy shifts, the picture that has emerged is a familiar one from Trump's first term: China is the main target after all. China isn't taking Trump's tariffs lying down. Instead, it has hit back tariff for tariff so that both sides are now applying tariffs to each others' goods of well above 100%.  In this week's episode, Group Chief Economist...

At the end of one of Lenin’s “weeks when decades happen”, senior economists from Capital Economics briefed clients on the implications of the news that China is retaliating aggressively to Donald Trump's reciprocal tariffs plan, including whether Europe could follow suit and how much more pain is in store for markets.  In this edited extract from that briefing, Neil Shearing, Mark Williams, Andrew...

There’s a “whiff of stagflation” around the US economy – and that’s even before Donald Trump rolls out his reciprocal tariffs plan.  Group Chief Economist Neil Shearing hops off a plane from New York and onto The Weekly Briefing from Capital Economics to give his take on the latest US consumption and price data, to preview March payrolls and to talk about what this all means for the US and global...

Could a ‘Mar-a-Lago Accord’ fix what ails the US balance of payments? Group Chief Economist Neil Shearing is on the show this week to tackle the various ideas around what the Trump administration could do to address long-standing global imbalances. He also warns that uncertainty around the Trump trade agenda may not dissipate with the release of the reciprocal tariffs plan on 2nd April and explain...

Group Chief Economist Neil Shearing discusses what the latest signals from the US economy say about recession risk. He talks about what the coming week’s retail sales data might say, and how they might swing the debate around a downturn. Neil also previews the coming week’s Fed decision, a haul of start-of-the-year China data and explains why talk of increased defence spending won’t mean an automa...

In light of Donald Trump's decision to push the button on tariffs on China, Mexico and Canada, Group Chief Economist Neil Shearing joins a special episode of the Weekly Briefing from Capital Economics to talk about whether this signals the start of a global trade war. He also discusses what’s coming next and whether signs of US economic weakness could prompt a shift in the White House's trade stra...

In the latest Capital Economics Weekly Briefing, Group Chief Economist Neil Shearing breaks down just how the policy uncertainty emanating from the Trump administration is – and isn’t affecting – the global economy. He also previews the February US employment report and whether Musk’s layoffs will impact the national labour market and the opening of this year’s National People’s Congress in Beijin...

It's been an extraordinary week in geopolitics, with direct US-Russia talks, a war of words between Washington and Kyiv and Europe swept by fears about the end of the US security backstop. But how much has really changed?  Group Chief Economist Neil Shearing and Chief Europe Economist Andrew Kenningham are on the Weekly Briefing from Capital Economics to talk about separating the reality from the...