The Two-Handed Economist

The annual Social Security Trust Fund report, published June 9, 2026, presents a troubling outlook for the future. If no action is taken, the trust fund will be depleted, requiring a 22% reduction in scheduled retirement benefits beginning in 2032. In this episode of “ The Two-Handed Economist ,” John W. Diamond discusses the history of Social Security, previous reforms to the system, and the need...

As conflict with Iran intensifies, economic consequences are beginning to extend beyond the battlefield, from rising energy prices to growing concerns about inflation and household costs. Ambassador David M. Satterfield and John W. Diamond , director of the Baker Institute Center for Tax and Budget Policy , discuss what a prolonged conflict could mean for the U.S. economy — and why everyday Americ...

It’s Tax Day, and this episode steps back from the headlines to look at the forces shaping the U.S. fiscal and economic outlook. From the latest federal budget proposals and rising defense costs to updated projections from the Congressional Budget Office (CBO) and the Treasury Department on deficits and debt, the fiscal picture is facing growing pressure.   Ambassador David M. Satterfield and John...

If the Federal Government was scaled down to a household budget, it would make $52,000 a year and be spending $73,000 – a surplus of $21,000 that would quickly put the average American in debt. In this episode of “ The Two-Handed Economist ,” John Diamond dives into the current financial state of the Federal Government and its connection to the silent but approaching private credit troubles loomin...

What happens to the economy when the U.S. Supreme Court overturns a major Trump administration tariff strategy? On Feb. 20, 2026, the Court struck down sweeping tariffs imposed under emergency authority, forcing a rapid policy shift and raising new questions about trade, markets, and the federal budget. In this episode of “Baker Briefing,” Ambassador David M. Satterfield is joined by John W. Diamo...

The Trump administration has touted its tariff strategy as a historic economic success, citing record stock market highs, falling trade deficits, and “virtually no inflation.” But what do the numbers actually show? In this episode of “Baker Briefing”, Ambassador David Satterfield sits down with John Diamond , Director of the Baker Institute’s Center for Tax and Budget Policy, to examine the data b...

John Diamond argues that the government shutdown has become an economic tax on ordinary Americans. Meanwhile, the Federal Reserve is heeding warning signals from the labor market as artificial intelligence and automation rewrite the rules for major industries, prompting companies like Amazon, UPS, and Intel to lay off thousands of workers. In other news, President Donald Trump is busy signing trad...

As the government shutdown drags on, the economic and political costs are mounting. John W. Diamond explains the impacts for workers, markets, and economic policymaking. Meanwhile, the U.S. economy is still expanding. But the tug-of-war between demand and supply shocks — notably, declining immigration and President Donald Trump’s tariff policies — amount to a fragile equilibrium. This conversation...

A congressional standoff over Affordable Care Act premium subsidies has triggered another government shutdown. John explains how we got here, why shutdowns aren’t effective policy tools, and what these recurring episodes reveal about budgetary and policymaking dysfunction in Washington. Then, he turns to the Trump administration’s proposal to overhaul the H-1B visa lottery system by favoring highe...

President Trump’s new $100,000 fee on H‑1B visa petitions has catalyzed a fresh debate: will it protect U.S. workers — or hobble innovation? In this episode, John Diamond explores both sides. He digs into how H‑1Bs shape firm behavior, labor markets, and the role of startups versus incumbents. What’s the real cost — and who pays it? This conversation was recorded on Sept. 24, 2025.  Follow John Di...

John Diamond explains why a weakening labor market is pushing the Federal Reserve to cut the federal funds rate (even in the face of sticky inflation). He also unpacks the looming government shutdown — and why, unless Washington reforms its budget process, we should expect bigger deficits and higher inflation risk. This conversation was recorded on Sept. 16, 2025.  Clips used in this episode: “ Re...

John Diamond breaks down three major developments. First, a federal appeals court has ruled that President Donald Trump unlawfully invoked the International Emergency Economic Powers Act to impose his sweeping tariffs. Second, a new executive order from Trump eliminates the de minimis exemption, which had allowed imports worth $800 or less to enter the country tax-free. Third, new jobs numbers sho...

The Federal Reserve’s dual mandate — keeping prices stable and achieving maximum employment — is being tested. At its Sept. 17 meeting, the central bank must decide whether or not to cut interest rates, a decision complicated by persistent inflation, a cooling labor market, and an escalating pressure campaign waged by the Donald Trump administration. Trump has pushed for steep rate cuts, repeatedl...

Last month, President Donald Trump’s massive tax bill passed the Republican-led House in a 215-214 vote. The White House has said the bill won’t add to the federal deficit, while the nonpartisan Congressional Budget Office projects that the bill would add to the debt by approximately $2.3 trillion from 2025 to 2034. Who’s right? John Diamond reviews the numbers and explains why the tax bill, as wr...

John Diamond explains why President Donald Trump’s recently announced trade deal with the United Kingdom is a net negative for the U.S. and why despite an additional trade deal with China, we’re still worse off than we were five months ago. Then, he reviews the progress of Republicans’ “one big, beautiful” tax bill and explains what makes fiscal sense and what doesn’t. Finally, he explores an exec...

John Diamond outlines what Congress should consider as it prepares to extend key provisions of the 2017 Tax Cuts and Jobs Act that expire at the end of 2025. He covers: how tweaks to the tax system can encourage U.S. companies to return production from overseas; why it’s important to incentivize investment in research and development (R&D); and how policymakers can tackle the budget deficit by...

The U.S. economy shrank by 0.3% in the first quarter of 2025, ending nearly three years of steady growth. John Diamond breaks down the latest GDP report and explains why the headline negative number isn’t the most important story — and what warning signals we should really be paying attention to. This conversation was recorded on April 30, 2025. You can follow @BakerInstitute on X , Instagram , Li...

In the first episode of “The Two-Handed Economist,” John Diamond — director of the Center for Tax and Budget Policy at Rice University’s Baker Institute for Public Policy — dives into the economic fallout from the Trump administration’s sweeping new tariffs. He unpacks the market turmoil, rising consumer costs, and global retaliation, arguing that these policies may do more harm than good. With a...