The TreppWire Podcast: A Commercial Real Estate Show

We discuss the CDC’s new eviction moratorium, the Financial Times story covering stress in the CRE market through the lens of a CMBS investor, the increasing focus on the office sector, and hotel valuations in this environment. The 10-year Treasury yield dipped this week after its eight-week high, which spurred Manus’ thoughts for a deep dive. In honor of Labor Day Weekend, the team provides its l...

In a normal summer, August results in lighter volume (and more volatility). Of course, this has been a summer like none other. In this week's episode, we break down the macro trends, the most recent CMBS delinquency data, potential forbearances, retail as “the falling knife,” and the top secondary MSAs for CRE investment. Inspired by Bruce Springsteen, Manus explains the similarities between Texac...

We welcome Fritz Kaegi, Cook County Assessor and former portfolio manager, to discuss CRE property valuations in Chicago, reforming the tax assessment process, the impact of COVID-19 on assessments, and his experience transitioning from the private sector to public office. Episode Notes: Assessing CRE property values in Chicago (5:03) Reforming the assessment process(8:58) The biggest challenge du...

We examine August CMBS remittance data and what the early delinquency numbers are telling us about the state of the recovery. We dig into big box retail earnings, the flurry of hotel headlines this week, and underwritten NOIs. Professor Manus Clancy also takes us to school for a lesson on CMBS loan modifications. Episode Notes: Big box retail earnings (0:58) Early indications from August CMBS remi...

We welcome Ryan Severino, Chief Economist at JLL, to discuss government stimulus, potential demographic and systemic changes, “pre-existing conditions” in CRE, the Presidential election’s impact on the markets, and the future of higher education. Episode Notes: Too much or too little government stimulus? (3:11) The election’s potential impact on the markets (11:16) Relief for the hotel industry? (...

Five months into the pandemic, the lodging and retail sectors have been battered. In this week's episode of The TreppWire Podcast, we break down recent news and performance in those sectors. We also discuss underwritten NOIs, appraisal reductions, the CRE “Deal of the Week,” our new Tom Petty “I Won’t Back Down” index, and whether or not we’ll be going to the movie theater anytime soon. Episode No...

We welcome Orest Mandzy, Managing Editor of CRE Direct News, to share the big takeaways from REIT earnings season. With Orest’s REIT expertise, we dig into performance by sector - hotel, retail, multifamily and office. We also discuss the growing forbearance tally, noteworthy stories in the corporate CLO market, and our “Deal of the Week.” Episode Notes: Observations from Philly (1:12) The next ro...

We welcome Lonnie Hendry, Head of Advisory Services at Trepp, for a deep dive into the HOPE Act and the potential impacts of eliminating the 1031 Exchange. We also analyze the big drop in the CMBS delinquency rate and shadow vacancy rates in the office market. In our new “Deals of the Week” segment, we highlight notable CRE transactions across the country. Episode Notes: Observations from Texas (1...

We welcome Donald Sheets, Managing Director at Broadshore Capital Partners to break down the current state of the CRE debt market. In a wide-ranging conversation, we discuss the disconnect between Main Street and Wall Street, underwriting office loans in this climate, evaluating investment opportunities, the CRE “lending pie,” and the current landscape of student housing. Don also shares his takea...

We welcome Vivek-Anand Dattani, VP of Commercial Operations from Trepp’s London office, to examine signs of progress and peril in the US and European CRE and CLO markets. We also discuss the preliminary July CMBS delinquency data, revisit the retail-heavy CMBX 6 index, and look at the lasting impacts of The Dodd-Frank Act. Last but certainly not least, Joe McBride delivers a special ode to Winston...

We’re only mid-way into July, but early indications are that delinquency rates are improving. In this week’s episode of The TreppWire Podcast, we examine the factors behind a potentially declining CMBS delinquency rate, noteworthy CRE headlines of the week, the CMBX 10 index, shifts in the office market, and takeaways from bank earnings. Episode Notes: Signs of a tepid recovery (1:10) Improving CM...

We welcome Rick Jones, Partner and Co-Chair of Dechert’s finance and real estate practice. Under his leadership, the 150 attorney practice focuses on sophisticated capital markets and mortgage finance transactions, providing lenders with innovative deal structuring, creative financing strategies and efficient execution. In this episode, we discuss structural changes that may come out of this crisi...

We are officially past the half year mark, which means the release of our bi-annual report in collaboration with CRE Direct. In this week’s episode of The TreppWire Podcast, we discuss our Mid-Year report and the magnitude of the pandemic’s effects across the hardest hit sectors. We also analyze the recent push for CMBS relief, CRE loan default and loss projections, the European CLO and CMBS marke...

At one point during the month of June, it appeared that a new all-time high for CMBS delinquencies would be reached. The final numbers posted at the end of the reporting cycle, however, showed that the 2012 high still remains the peak (for the time being). In this week’s episode, we dig into this month’s delinquency report, potential relief options for hotel owners, takeaways from the Fed’s bank s...

The economic recovery: A glass half full or half empty? We examine the congressional request for CMBS borrower relief, delinquency rates by MSA, retail stories that caught our eye, the future of affordable housing, the increase in “problem banks,” and the importance of CLOs to the broader market. Episode Notes: Is the glass half empty or half full for the economic recovery? (1:03) The congressiona...

We welcome Brian Stoffers, Global President of Debt and Structured Finance at CBRE and 2020 Chairman of the Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA). In a wide-ranging conversation, Mr. Stoffers discusses trends he’s seeing in the CRE lending space, property type performance, the impact of “forbearageddon,” and how the COVID-19 crisis will change commercial real estate in the long-term. Episode Notes: O...

We welcome Andrew Jacobs, Head of Structured Finance at Trepp, to examine signs of stress in the corporate CLO market. We also discuss the potential record-breaking CMBS delinquency rates, the appraisal reduction process, this week’s major headlines in lodging and retail, and the migration from big cities. We also make weekend plans for a trip to the drive-in movies. Episode Notes: Record breaking...

In this special episode, we welcome Tammy and David Goldfisher from The Henley Group, borrower advocates and experts in CMBS loan restructuring. With loan forbearance being top of mind for many in commercial real estate, Tammy and David share their insights into the borrower and special servicer negotiation process and discuss what they are seeing on the ground. Episode Notes: What type of forbear...

The wave of bad news in the retail market, what we expect to see in June CMBS remittance data, the CMBX 7 index, credit supply risk in the corporate CLO market and most importantly, our Father’s Day wish lists. Come for the market commentary, stay for the stories of playing Little League Baseball with Kevin James of “The King of Queens.” Episode Notes: Macro market news and our thoughts on the rec...

In this special episode, we welcome Principal Dan McNamara and Managing Director Catie McKee (aka the “Queen of Malls”) from MP Securitized Credit Partners. In what was dubbed “the next big short” by some, investors bought credit-default swaps against subordinate bonds in the CMBX 6 index, which has heavy concentrations of shopping mall and retail loans. Catie and Dan are well known for their bet...

We break down the massive spike in CMBS delinquencies (the largest month-over-month increase we’ve seen since 2009), the financial performance of malls, loan forbearance expectations, office exposure in the CMBX 12 index, office loan refinance risk, an important court decision for the syndicated loan market, and what our summer vacations might look like. Episode Notes: Where are we in the economic...

In this special episode of The TreppWire Podcast, we welcome Jan Kniffen, CEO of J Rogers Kniffen Worldwide. As a retail consultant and a former retail executive with decades of experience in the industry, Mr. Kniffen helps us make sense of the current state of retail, its future in a post-COVID world, and potential opportunities in the market. Episode Notes: How will department stores and other n...

We discuss borrower relief options, the two schools of thought on the future of office space, the newest data on CMBS delinquencies, the retail consumer, the ramifications of a big CLO buyer pulling out (for now), and our excitement for the reopening of both Disney World and the NHL. Episode Notes: Signs of hope in the market (0:53) CMBS delinquencies continue to rise (7:44) How borrowers can pote...

We dig into bets on the CMBX index, retail performance and store closings, the new wave of CMBS servicer data for lodging and retail, self-storage’s status as a “recession-resistant business,” the outlook for student housing, and the quality of leveraged loan covenants. Episode Notes: A look at retail performance and store closings (2:30) The new wave of CMBS servicer data for lodging and retail (...

We welcome Lonnie Hendry, VP of CRE Product Management at Trepp, to examine the impact of COVID-19 on CRE property valuations. We also discuss fresh servicer data that shows increases in hotel and retail delinquencies, new CMBS issuance and what it means for the market, commercial mortgage investment returns for life insurance companies, and revisions to the TALF program to include a broader range...