The Supercycle

Featuring Trevor Gillan. One of our most interesting conversations. Trevor has a really unique idea of a futures exchange for superforecaster consensus on a certain disputed truth, which sounds quite vague but you’ll learn more after you take a listen! Episode #7 of the Supercycle podcast. Next episodes include Robin Hanson, Clément Lesage, and Lucas Kohorst. Get full access to The Supercycle at s...

Featuring Quroe (a repeat guest), Tumbles , and Chris Gerlacher . I barely figured out the equipment in the Lighthaven podcast room, but nevertheless this was a lot of fun to record! You’ll learn about what goes down at one of the most esoteric conferences in the world. I also want to acknowledge Shreyas Kyada, who did a fantastic job of producing this episode! Episode #6 of The Supercycle podcast...

Featuring Mick Bransfield. We discuss how the CFTC is handling lawsuits against states challenging their authority to regulate derivatives exchanges and how a changing CFTC could impact the industry in the future. How hard is it to put the genie back in the bottle? Markets predict a democratic president will be inaugurated in January 2029. What does that mean for Designated Contract Markets such a...

I was honored to speak at this Elastics event at CV Labs Zug. My talk is about 10 minutes, but you can watch Adhi Rajaprabhakaran and Noah Zingler-Sternig speak at the same event in the full recording . Get full access to The Supercycle at supercycle.blog/subscribe

Featuring John Aristotle Philips . Our best episode yet! We discuss the value and ethics of democratizing information, how PredictIt got their no action letter, where the prediction market industry is going, and (as always) if futarchy could solve nuclear war. Get full access to The Supercycle at supercycle.blog/subscribe

Featuring Quroe , jim , and Mary Smith . Our strangest podcast. As a suspected AI joins in the middle of the meeting, we quickly decipher that this is, in fact, a real human using a voice filter. Nevertheless, we had some discussions about insurance using protocols such as Augur and how every prediction market is a bounty subject to manipulation. Episode #3 of The Supercycle podcast. Later this we...

Featuring Harry Crane . Harry has some great insights on market mechanics! One of the most interesting podcasts we’ve done, as well as the first episode co-hosted by both Eli and Flip since the rebrand. Episode #2 of The Supercycle podcast. We’ve got some very exciting guests coming up, so stay tuned for the next episode drop on Monday! And in case you missed it, read our investigation into left-w...

Featuring Ben Shindel , Yann Riviere , and Adonis Silva . Excellent conversation including discussion on forecasting process, data intake, how prediction markets differ from traditional forecasting, and even some P(Doom) reveals at the end. Episode #1 of The Supercycle Podcast. We’re looking forward to podcasting with Harry Crane later in the week. Get full access to The Supercycle at supercycle.b...

Get full access to Bayesian Supercycle at itsnotgambling.substack.com/subscribe Get full access to The Supercycle at supercycle.blog/subscribe

Get full access to Bayesian Supercycle at itsnotgambling.substack.com/subscribe Get full access to The Supercycle at supercycle.blog/subscribe

Get full access to Bayesian Supercycle at itsnotgambling.substack.com/subscribe Get full access to The Supercycle at supercycle.blog/subscribe

Get full access to Bayesian Supercycle at itsnotgambling.substack.com/subscribe Get full access to The Supercycle at supercycle.blog/subscribe