The Sharp Square

The game lived up to it's "meh" expectations. Jeff enjoyed the defensive and special teams chess match that Mike MacDonald employed to oust Mike Vrabel. Seattle followed the first rule of winning which is not to lose, while Drake Maye chose a rough spot to play a terrible game. Jeff knew his bet was dead after the first series, when the Patriots offensive line couldn't block Se...

Jeff is joined by Mike to talk the big game! Jeff explains why Sam Darnold is the story that goes beyond football. He delves into a Robert Kraft conspiracy to get the trophy back to Foxboro. The guys dive into thematic prop parlays and other advice to have a fun gambling Super Sunday.

Jeff had a monster weekend betting the championship games. He talks how fatigue caught up to the Rams, while Seattle made great plays and even better coaching decisions. He loves the Sam Darnold redemption story from a quarterback and human point-of-view. He got it wrong thinking New England would score on Denver's defense, but liked the old school defensive game that Mike Vrabel executed bet...

Jeff believes that the market is putting too large of a gap between Bo Nix and Jarrett Stidham. He makes the case for the Rams being in a terrible spot with travel and games played while the Seahawks have lived at home with division opponents. Go sports, as the over is appealing in both games. 

Jeff recaps the best round of divisional games in recent memory. Heartbreak for Bo Nix. The closing of the window in Buffalo. A bright future for the Bears. 

Jeff has bets on all four divisional playoff games, diversifying his portfolio between two spreads, an under and an over. He continues to recognize that he can't get Bills games right so advices laying off if you agree with him and betting your mortgage if you disagree. 

Jeff goes over all the playoff games from wildcard weekend and talks about limited betting being the winning strategy. The Eagles have no identity. Too much was put on Justin Herbert. The Bears find a way as Caleb Williams takes a giant step towards greatness. Jeff also discusses how his take on the Rams did not apply and caused him to miss a Carolina opportunity. 

Jeff is diving into all six playoff games for the wildcard round. He talks about evaluating your power ratings versus the market to find value. Knowing what teams you gauge well and which ones befuddle you (Buffalo). Some insight on defensive coordinators who match up well against particular offenses. 

Jeff goes over all of the betting action from the weekend. Need to win teams rolled and Matt LaFleur captures the Lose But Cover championship bel.t

Jeff goes over every playoff implication for every game to give you all the information you need to be armed for betting. He talks about the theme of a team "needing to win" being the most over-valued narrative of the year. He also talks about beating the prop market by knowing bonus incentives for players. The season concludes with Baltimore at Pittsburgh and Jeff has all of the betting...

Jeff goes over all the NFL action from a jam packed week of football. The refs had their thumb on the scale in Cleveland. Josh Allen continues to destroy Jeff's bankroll.

In a rapid fire half hour of holiday cheer, Jeff goes over all of the playoff implications for every NFL game. He warns of placing too much weight on must win teams and the value of taking points for spoiler underdogs. 

Jeff sucks at betting football.

Jeff is breaking down all of the playoff scenarios for week 16. Deep dives into Philly vs. Washington, Pittsburgh vs. Detroit, Green Bay vs. Chicago and Jacksonville vs. Denver. He talks about hidden value in games without post season implication. Ugly Betty gets correlated. 

Another losing week as Jeff fails to put one of his winners on his bet card. Cowards never profit! The Chiefs are out of the playoffs, while the Lions are in desperate shape after losing to the Rams. Broncos and Packers flew over, nullifying Jeff's under theory. No lead is safe once Josh Allen puts on his Superman cape.

Jeff is talking about how late season games offer less narrative edges and are more about who has the goods. Deep dives on Bills vs. Patriots, Chargers vs. Chiefs and Lions vs. Rams. He has his under bet of the year and a rah-rah ultimate decision.

Jeff talked himself into a winner with Pittsburgh this week and found a way to cash with the under since he was scared to bet against Kansas City. Pete Carroll receives one of gambling's highest, or lowest honors as he played to cover the spread and kill under bettors. 

Mike is back! The guys deep dive three key games for the weekend. Aaron Rodgers has ruined the Tomlin Rah-Rah spot. The guys are buying Caleb Williams... well, sort of. Jeff breaks out the tinfoil hat to try to figure out which way the refs will go for the Chiefs vs. Texans games. Jeff has an ultimate decision for a total in rainy Jacksonville. 

Jeff feels the table has been set for a parody driven final month of the season where their are no great teams, a few bad ones and a bunch of "in the middle". He talks about Chicago having an identity that cashes bets, the Chiefs no longer being in the good graces of the officials and the Packers being amazing at adapting their style of play. 

Jeff is deep diving all three Thanksgiving games and the black Friday matchup between the Bears and Eagles. He shares some thoughts on the tradition of Detroit and Dallas hosting Thanksgiving day and Bill Parcel's idea that the real season starts after turkey day. 

Jeff had a pretty even weekend with the Browns cashing in as the ugly Betty. The Tampa game went as poorly as thought and Trevor Lawrence continues to baffle with his ineptitude. Kansas City somehow doesn't cover after shutting down the Colts offense and the Saints were an all time bust as the ultimate decision. 

Jeff dives into a concept on coaching game theory that might lead to some value in betting the under. He is suggesting possibly the ugliest Betty of all-time and pushing back on the media's burial of the Chiefs. The ultimate decision sees the dirty birds crash landing after a brutal scheduling decision.

Spread the Sunshine got rained out this week as Jeff was off on all three of his team Florida picks. Betting on Caleb Williams is a tough ask when looking for points. Finally, Jeff discusses how he is buying any stock people are selling on Sam Darnold and the Seahawks.

Jeff continues a deep dive into all three Florida football teams. He talks about the joys of a weekend without any bets and how it re-focused him on how to watch games objectively. The ultimate decision focuses on taking a handicap and finding the best way to apply it outside of betting point spreads. 

Jeff was 2-1 picking Florida teams this week and goes over the games for all three. Sean Payton continues to win games without playing offense. Jeff has thoughts on Jim Harbaugh and Mike Tomlin playing off each other and making sacks, rushes and punts cool again.