The Real Investment Show (Full Show)

It's Fed Day with it's much anticipated rate cut; what will matter more is the Fed's dot-plot and comments on expectations for 2025. Meanwhile on Wall Street, sloppy trading continues as fund manager rebalance portfolios. Markets are sitting on the 20-DMA and holding firm. The Healthcare Sector is the year's worst performer: Will it offer the most opportunity in 2025? This sector tends to perform...

Retail Sales numbers this week will feed into expectations for 2025. Fed meeting tomorrow: Cut and pause, or cut and slow? Employment revisions are also due, but markets won't care. The stock market is still hitting all time highs, but that's not necessarily the case, sector by sector: Basic Materials, Industrials, Financials, and Energy are not mirroring the S&P 500; the Magnificent 7 is responsi...

Microstrategies joins the S&P 100 (just in time to crash?) Bitcoin continues to climb. The FEd will cut rates on Wednesday, but it's commentary and outlook are what will really count. Look for more volatility heading into the Fed meeting; the current rally may end by the 18th. Oil prices have been struggling, thanks to slowing economic growth = less demand. Gold is over-bought, working through sel...

Markets are setting up for a Santa Claus Rally; inflation pressure remains. What will the Fed do next week, and what will Powell SAY? The impact of tariffs may not be too dire; optimism abounds on Wall Street. Danny & Matt discuss end of year RMD's and how to best handle non-spousal Inherited IRA distributions. Constant changes in IRS rules are difficult to follow; delaying distributions might not...

Lance reviews a recent report about generational wealth transfers, and notes that his kids get NOTHING. Wednesday's CPI report was seemingly the last hurdle for the Fed to cut interest rates. With the CPI index matching Wall Street forecasts, the Fed Funds futures market now implies a 97% chance the Fed will cut rates next Wednesday. The data was OK but elicits fears that the downward price progre...

Post-election consumer confidence is rocketing higher. Inflation Data is coming: CPI & PPI which will be digested in time for next week's Fed meeting. Inflation numbers are likely to tick up from YOY comparisons. Portfolio re-balancing commences. What does financial success look like? Lance and Jonathan review the answers by-generations. Stocks vs Bonds: Earnings growth expectations are too high;...

Lance's Husbands' Christmas shopping warning service; markets are now in second week of sloppy trading. Portfolios out-of-balance will trigger volatility as managers adjust weighting. There is a possible correction coming, BUT markets could continue to rally all the way into the New Year. Tesla is up 54% since the election; a plethora of ETF's: all money flows feed into underlying stocks; $1-T int...

Portfolio Manager Michael Lebowitz makes a rare, in-studio appearance with Lance Roberts, discussing whether another market liquidity event might be on the horizon? While there is generally good liquidity in the financial system, there are some nascent signs that problems could arise. The ISM Services Index is showing weaknesses, and more economic reports to come this month are likely to mirrow su...

Russia just learned of a near-miss from a passing meteorite...TONIGHT! Lance discusses GDP estimates and other economic reports; Retail Sales are "okay," with no tell tale signs of Recession...for the moment. What will revisions to these reports show next year? What will be the impact of cutting government spending? Meanwhile, investors are very, very exuberant. What should investors expect for th...

Periods of extreme leverage and speculation are not new, and the outcomes have consistently been painful for unprepared investors. The late 1990s dot-com bubble serves as a prime example. Speculative bets on internet stocks drove valuations to extraordinary levels, with investors leveraging margin accounts and options to chase gains. When the bubble burst, the Nasdaq lost nearly 80% of its value,...

Welcome back from Thanksgiving break: Is it time to initiate Christmas Bonds to help Retailers? While markts have performed well, expect some sloppiness heading into the end of the year. We'll have Black Friday and Cyber Monday results later this week. Meanwhile, markets continue to grind higher. What will be the effects of Trump Administration picks and regulatory changes? High levels of market c...

Credit spreads can greatly assist in determining the risk of a correction or bear market by reflecting the perceived risk of corporate bonds compared to government bonds. The spread between risky corporate bonds and safer Treasury bonds remains narrow when the economy performs well. This is because investors are confident in corporate profitability and are willing to accept lower yields for higher...

Thanksgiving week is spread out before us like a serving table laden with food: Markets will trade in a holiday-shortened week with moods of expectation for high consumer spending. Lance reveals his strategy for Christina's Christmas present. Markets' goal is to generate 50-points, targeting S&P 6,000, despite limited downside. Bond Yields are dropping with Scott Bessent's nomination as Treasury S...

A preview of risks on the horizon, including Trump Tariffs, interest rates, and how debt and deficits are economic drivers. What are the effects on corporate profitability? Will valuations be problematic next year? Lance revews Nvidia's stellar quarterly report and analysts' expectations for 2025. Bitcoin is tracking WITH the US Dollar, not against it as a de-dollarization asset. CNBC completely m...

It's Nvidia Day--markets will respond accordingly tomorrow. Expectations are high for earnings and forward guidance. Analysts are generally looking for lowered expectations in 2025, as President Trump faces a waning economy. Meanwhile, markets have had a good test of support at the 20-DMA. Volatility anticipated in a holiday-shortened trading week next week. Lance and Danny plead for planning ahea...

WalMart reports it's close to profitability; expect some market chop this week; NVIDIA reports Wednesday evening, and markets will respond on Thursday. A look at the performance of the Top Ten Stocks: Everyone wants to be in on the US Markets. Markets on Tuesday dropped to bounce off the 20-DMA, and continue to run along the ever-rising trend line. Expect some volatility ahead of next month's Fed...

It's the last full week of trading before Thanksgiving. Expectations for US GDP growth in the new year are on the plus side of 3%, vs the EU's negative exepctations: Where do you want to put your money? First place the "Government Efficiency Department" can start is at the Department of Defense, failing its past seven audits. Risks are building in certain market areas where “Trump Trade” exuberanc...

Just ahead of the Christmas Retail Shopping Season, credit card debt is piling up; consumers are under stress. Survey: What to do when an item is too expensive? What will be the actual effect of tariffs? What economists think vs how consumers react. Meanwhile, markets sold off Wednesday, then rallied back for a positive close: Participants are unwilling to sell, expecting markets to continue to ri...

It's Inflation Day: Expectations are for a .3% print for October (the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported CPI rising.2%, and up 2.6% over the past 12-months). Remember, it's only a guess; why inflation is destined to rise. Stocks remain over-bought; watch for pre-Thanksgiving volatility; more than half in our Twitter poll sees the S&P at 6,200 by EOY. Why are investors expecting more rate cuts in...

Earnings Season is winding up, and The Next Big Report to come will be from NVIDIA on 11/20. Markets are on fire for now; what will the Fed do next? We're expecting one more rate cut in December, and then a pause. This week's inflation print could be higher due to YOY comparisons. Mutual Fund Distributions are coming in December; do not be alarmed! The post-election market is on a tear: invesetors...

The markets' response to the election outcome, combined with Thursday's Fed rate cut: Markets love it, but half the country (metro areas) are not happy. Avoid knee-jerk responses; next year could be very different. What to do with Bonds: Know what your goal is. Rich & Danny discuss home-bias investing vs international markets: Where're you gonna go? Expect more volatility and more disappointment....

In the aftermath of the 2024 Election, attention now turns to today's Fed announcement, with odds makers giving 96% chance of a quarter-percent rate cut. Meanwhile, markets are roiling as foreign investors try to position after the election. Managers are scrambling to re-risk in time for year-end reporting; Wednesday was a huge day for Small Caps. Lance and Michael discuss the frequency of Mexican...

The 2024 Election outcome is sharply affecting pre-market, with Donald Trump's election sending stocks higher. The S&P trendline is aiming for the 6000 or 6100 level. The question that remains is whether markets can sustain that trend. This time is different from the previous Trump win: Interest rates are falling and tax rates are lower now; yet, there are still plenty of questions for investors:...

Will the 2025 Election be The Most Important Election Ever? Yes...until 2028. Vote for the policy, not the personality: Child Care Credits case study. Markest are hangin' on ahead of the election, setting up for a post-election rally. Bond yields are the result of pre-election positioning; bond auction is next week. It's hard to buy when it's unpopular. Why are Small Caps having a hard time: They'...

It's 2024 Election-eve: Hedge funds are long on a presumed outcome; watch for a pick up in volatility. The Fed meets on the day after the election; there are still about 100 S&P Companies left to report. Reference Lance's weekend article on buy backs, Wolf in Sheep's Clothing: Apple spent $100-B on stock buy backs, when they could have purchased Intel for $99-B and produced their own chips. But, n...