The Probability Desk

The first episode of UAO Fiduciary — the weekly briefing on what the world's largest investors owe. The case and the counter-case on duty, climate, stewardship and systemic risk. We report the debate; we don't pick a side. Read Issue No. 1: universalassetowners.com/fiduciary/uao-fiduciary-issue-1 All coverage: universalassetowners.com/fiduciary

The Frontier — Weekly Recap. The week's intelligence for the owners of the long horizon: the 49-gigawatt deficit and what it means to own both sides of the AI trade, plus this week's newsroom from Antoine Tigneres, Nicolás Bohórquez and Dan Agbo, and the Insider on Al-Rumayyan's European ultimatum. Read the full issue of The Long Horizon: https://www.universalassetowners.com/magazine/the-long-hori...

The daily intelligence briefing for the people who allocate long-horizon capital. Lebanon breaks the nuclear calendar. Does it open the Warsh hike window? The Probability Desk runs three scenarios: Tail (30%) — Deal Fracture; Base (45%) — Managed Delay; Upside (25%) — Clean Resolution. Monte Carlo: 60,000 paths, Brent Q4 median 6.98, P(Warsh hike 2026) 18%. Full scenario report and source ledger a...

The Federal Reserve held rates today at 3.50–3.75%. The decision was almost beside the point. What mattered was the dot plot — Kevin Warsh's first as Fed chair — and the tail it revealed: for the first time this cycle, the market is pricing a hike, not a cut. Today's Probability Desk: is the easing put dead? → 55% Hold · 30% Hike · 15% Cut The simulation is bimodal. A switch, not a dial. Probabili...

The Federal Reserve held rates today at 3.50–3.75%. The decision was almost beside the point. What mattered was the dot plot — Kevin Warsh's first as Fed chair — and the tail it revealed: for the first time this cycle, the market is pricing a hike, not a cut. Today's Probability Desk takes the question head-on: is the easing put dead? The Desk assigns a 30% probability to a hike before year-end, a...

The US and Iran have announced a deal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, with a signing expected Friday. Markets are pricing resolution; the Desk is more cautious — this is the second reopening in four months, and April's collapsed in a week. We weight it base 50 / upside 15 / tail 35, run 60,000 simulated paths, and explain why the outcome is a switch, not a dial — and what a long-horizon owner shou...

The Frontier — our weekly deep dive into the forces reshaping the whole market. This week: The Power Wall — can the electricity grid be built fast enough for the age of AI, and what happens to the world's largest portfolios if it can't? The Desk's call: ~68% that US data-centre electricity reaches or exceeds 300 TWh in 2027, with grid delivery — not demand — the contested variable. Read the full d...

The daily intelligence briefing for the people who allocate long-horizon capital. Full brief and sources: https://www.universalassetowners.com

The daily intelligence briefing for the people who allocate long-horizon capital. Full brief and sources: https://www.universalassetowners.com

After a hot May jobs report - 172,000 jobs vs an ~80,000 consensus, unemployment steady at 4.3% - does the Fed cut at all in 2026? The Probability Desk weights the US rate regime through year-end: base case Sticky Plateau (hold all year) 50%, Immaculate Easing 25%, a Stagflation tail 15%, and a Hard Landing tail 10% - netting roughly 60% odds of no cut this year, against a market still pricing eas...

The daily intelligence briefing for the people who allocate long-horizon capital. Full brief and sources: https://www.universalassetowners.com

The daily intelligence briefing for the people who allocate long-horizon capital. Full brief and sources: https://www.universalassetowners.com

The daily intelligence briefing for the people who allocate long-horizon capital. Full brief and sources: https://www.universalassetowners.com

The UAE has left OPEC and the Strait of Hormuz is trading on disruption pricing. The Probability Desk weights three paths through Q3 — base case 55%, upside 30%, tail 15% — and reads out the second-order effects and the repricing for sovereign funds, pensions, insurers and family offices. Full brief and sources: https://www.universalassetowners.com

A Probability Desk flagship report. The UAE has left OPEC and the Strait of Hormuz has been disrupted for months. We walk through the base rates, a Bayesian probability model, and a real 50,000-path Monte Carlo to ask how long capital should plan for a disrupted Strait — and what reprices for a universal owner. Read the full report and download the PDF: https://www.universalassetowners.com/strait-...