The PredictIt Podcast

The Senate map just got scrambled in a single week. Graham Platner's Maine campaign implodes after a sexual assault allegation, and nearly every Democrat who backed him is now calling for him to step aside before the July 13 deadline. Jacob and Garth break down who replaces him (Troy Jackson? Janet Mills?) and whether Susan Collins is now the safest incumbent on the board. Then: Michigan tightens...

It's a full Senate polling roundup — every race that matters, poll by poll, checked against where PredictIt traders actually have the money. Texas is a dead heat: Paxton and Talarico tied 47-47 in the NYT/Siena poll, with real signs of Paxton weakness under the surface. Maine tells a different story — Collins holds a steady edge while Platner's campaign gets buried under a staggering outside-money...

Mamdani went 3-for-3 last night — sweeping all three New York City congressional primaries and ousting two incumbents, including Hakeem Jeffries-backed Adriano Espaillat in NY-13. Brad Lander flattened Dan Goldman in NY-10. Claire Valdez dominated Antonio Reynoso in NY-7. The left now has a kingmaker. But the real result nobody is covering: Cait Conley in NY-17 — the West Point grad, former NSC co...

For the first time since Venezuela, Republicans have real momentum — and it came from three places at once: an Iran deal signed in Geneva, gas prices falling week over week, and UFC 250 entering through the Oval Office. Democrats are still at 71¢ to take the House, but the environment is tightening. In this episode of The PredictIt Podcast, Jacob Studwell and Garth Juckem cover: 00:00 — Knicks win...

Graham Platner won the Maine Democratic primary last night with 77% of the vote — Is the Market Overreacting to the Platner Scandal? We broke down the thesis weeks ago: scandals with diminishing returns, outsider energy in a fighter's environment, and a Democratic electorate ready to act like toddlers when told who not to vote for. Democrats are now at 59¢ to beat Susan Collins in November. In thi...

An astrologer's archetypal forecast for 2026... without making a single prediction. Dr. Laurence Hillman returns for Part 2 with his most provocative takes: AI acceleration, alien disclosure, the Leo-Aquarius tension defining our era, and why "expect the unexpected" isn't a joke right now: 00:00 — How archetypes shape entire electorates: post-war America vs. now 06:00 — The three archetypes Americ...

Can astrology predict political outcomes — or is it something else entirely? Dr. Laurence Hillman, one of the world's leading archetypal astrologers, argues it's neither prediction nor superstition. It's pattern recognition for time itself. In Part 1, Jacob Studwell talks with Dr. Hillman about: 00:00 Introduction to Archetypal Astrology 08:56 Evolution of Archetypal Astrology 17:08 Understanding...

We called Kevin Warsh at 54 votes. It came in 54-45 — the closest Fed chair confirmation in modern history. The contract was trading at 3¢ the day before. If you're not listening, you're leaving money on the table. In this episode of The PredictIt Podcast, Jacob Studwell (reporting live from Peru) and Garth Juckem cover: 00:00 — PredictIt Pod dispatches from Peru: Lima, Paracas, bird islands 03:30...

The Virginia Supreme Court just struck down the voter-approved redistricting referendum in a 4-3 ruling — blocking a map that would have flipped four House seats. Democrats have fallen from 85¢ to 70¢ to take the House, and traders are repricing in real time. In this episode of The PredictIt Podcast, Jacob Studwell and Garth Juckem cover: 00:00 — Virginia Supreme Court kills the redistricting refe...

The Supreme Court's Callais decision just reshaped the path to a 2026 House majority. Democrats fell from 87¢ to 79¢ on PredictIt — but the underlying fundamentals (Trump approval, generic ballot, cost-of-living concerns) suggest traders may be overcorrecting. In this episode of The PredictIt Podcast, Jacob Studwell and Garth Juckem cover: SCOTUS Callais decision: cracking vs. packing and what's a...

PredictIt's $3,500 individual position cap is its single biggest differentiator and the recent Polymarket insider trading charge, bouts of political violence, and questions over what place prediction markets place in society proves why caps matter for the integrity of the market. In this episode of The PredictIt Podcast, Jacob Studwell and Garth Juckem cover: White House Correspondents Dinner atte...

Virginia's April 21 redistricting referendum could flip up to 4 House seats and reshape the 2026 midterms. We break down where PredictIthave it priced and whether the data should scare traders holding Yes at 85 cents. In this episode of PredictIt Official, Jacob Studwell and Garth Juckem cover: 00:00 — The national popular vote compact hits 222 electoral votes 04:30 — Senate 2026 market vs. S&...

Jacob and Garth cover the potential expulsion of Tony Gonzalez and Eric Swalwell, the California governor's race. We also delve into the Maine Senate race and the potential impact of a major hurricane on the election. * 00:00 Swalwell's Dropout Fallout * 11:50 JD's Tough Week * 19:15 Impact of Hurricane Season * 24:40 Maine Senate Race Dynamics Trade now: https://bit.ly/predictit2026

Chad Peace of the Independent Voter Project joins Jacob to break down why 45% of registered voters are independent — and why both parties are structurally built to ignore them. They dig into California's nonpartisan primary, the Texas open primary fight, why independents aren't moderates, and what all of it means for 2026. Trade now on PredictIt: https://bit.ly/predictit2026

Legendary pollster John Zogby joins Jacob to break down his latest generic ballot showing the two parties at a dead heat — directly contradicting polls giving Democrats a clear 2026 advantage. They dig into Trump's approval, public support for the Iran conflict, and what independent voters are thinking ahead of 2026. Plus: John plays PredictIt's Buy, Sell, Hold weighing in on Pete Buttigieg, Cory...

Trump's poll numbers are moving in the wrong direction and this week, Jacob and Garth break down exactly what the latest data is telling us. Also this week: Recent Iran updates and what this may mean for the Republicans in the midterms Independent Senate candidates making noise in Nebraska and Montana — and whether they have a real shot Trump's Truth Social posts about Robert Mueller... Whether yo...

Jacob and Garth recap Garth's recent trip, where we're at in the war in Iran and how that's affecting the House, Senate, and any individual races during primary season. The team also dives deep into new Ohio Governor and Senate polling and then it's last call for the Democratic Senate Primary race to name a Dick Durbin successor! Trade Now on PredictIt: https://bit.ly/predictit2026

Garth, Ethan, and Jacob give a comprehensive recap of the Noem firing, how to keep her out of South Dakota through March, Texas recaps including grading traders performances on both sides of the aisle, and an update to the Iran War timeline put everything in play for the Democrats come November: Trade Now - https://bit.ly/predictit2026

Garth and Jacob discuss all the different ways the strikes and ongoing conflict in Iran could affect Trump's approval ratings, gas prices, midterms turnout, Congress War Powers resolutions, and also the Texas Primaries tomorrow!

Jacob and Garth discuss the SCOTUS tariff ruling from Friday, what this means for the Presidency and Alito's expected retirement, Texas Early voting reporting, Trade Talk on the State of the Union and Noem's next job? We end with a new segment on the California Governor's Race: Campaign, Elect, Sign, Reject, Recall (our spin on FMK) - Trade now with us: https://bit.ly/predictit2026

Ethan Rosen from PredictIt's Markets team joins the pod to discuss the process behind creating markets, writing rules, limiting settlement ambiguity and his thoughts on the SAVE Act headlines. We also discuss the most likely to flip Senate races, Texas' Primaries in 3 weeks and Ethan's best buys (and sells). Trade Now - https://bit.ly/predictit2026

Garth and Jacob are back to discuss another impending government shutdown, Garth's $1500 loss, new Texas polling, and maybe the Superbowl? But really just Trump's tweet about the halftime show. https://bit.ly/predictit2026

Bradley Tusk joins Jacob for an interview ranging from his pitch for Mobile Voting to advice for AOC, predicting NY House races, and whether or not Gavin Newsom is the eventual Democratic Nominee in 2028. Trade Bradley's picks here: https://bit.ly/predictit2026

Jacob interviews Anthony Vinci, author of 'The Fourth Intelligence Revolution.' They discuss the implications of AI in intelligence, the chaos of information in the digital age, parenting in a world of misinformation, and the future of social media regulations. Vinci shares insights on his AI model, Vico, and its applications in predictive markets and political forecasting and makes a bunch of pre...

Jacob and Garth provide a guide to the March Primaries reviewing the Texas Senate races, most interesting House races, and the Illinois Democratic Primary for Dick Durbin's seat in the Senate.