The Portfolio Fix with AAM

Greg Ortquist, Senior Portfolio Manager at AAM, and Alex Rapoport, Managing Director at Affinius Capital, discuss how commercial mortgage loans and commerical real estate can benefit insurance company portfolios. They focus on trends in property types, borrower preferences, and the impact of market conditions. The conversation covers the challenges facing the office market post-COVID and provides...

In this episode of the Portfolio Fix, John Balsamo, Portfolio Manager at AAM and Gene Pretti, CEO of Zazove, discuss the current state of the convertible bond market, exploring its performance amidst market volatility, trends in issuance, and the impact of rising interest rates. They delve into the potential implications of political changes and how these factors may influence investment strategie...

In this episode of The Portfolio Fix, Greg Ortquist, Senior Portfolio Manager at AAM, and Alex Rapoport, Managing Director at Affinius Capital, discuss the current state of commercial mortgage loans. They focus on trends in property types, borrower preferences, and the impact of market conditions. The conversation covers the challenges facing the office market post-COVID and provides insights into...

Patryk Carwinski is joined by Kevin Ziets from Muzinich & Co. in this episode of The Portfolio Fix , where they unpack the outlook for high yield public corporate debt. The conversation covers important market trends, return expectations for 2025, and the potential impact of evolving policies. They also compare high yield bonds and bank loans, along with exploring issuance trends and the key m...

In this episode, Tim Senechalle is joined by Elizabeth Henderson, Pete Wirtala and Marco Bravo to discuss how AAM views the year ahead. While there is optimism around corporate growth and asset pricing, the team weighs in on the risks posed by fiscal pressures, policy shifts, and global instability. Tune in for a well-rounded look at the road ahead. Click here for our written outlook This episode...

This episode of the Portfolio Fix highlights the trending topic of Artificial Intelligence and the implications for investors. AAM's Chief Investment Officer, Tim Senechalle, and Elizabeth Henderson, Head of Fixed Income, are joined by Pat McGeever, Senior Fixed Income Credit Analyst, covering the energy sector. Hear what Pat has to say about the challenges facing energy investors in today&ap...

In this episode of the Portfolio Fix, Tim Senechalle and Elizabeth Henderson are joined by Marco Bravo. They discuss recent developments in the bond market, given the weaker than expected July employment report and discuss their expectations for the rest of the year. Is a recession forthcoming? What action do they anticipate from the Fed? Marco shares his perspective on potential Federal Reserve i...

In this episode not only do we discuss economic developments, the Fed and recent market movements but Tim, Elizabeth and Pete are joined by Andy Bohlin, Senior Fixed Income Credit Analyst. Andy is responsible for the analysis and recommendations of investment grade Basic Industries, Auto and Utility credits. He joins the podcast to talk about utilities and to specifically discuss how AI impacts se...

Not only is Tim Senechalle AAM's new Chief Investment Officer he is also the new host of AAM's The Portfolio Fix podcast! He will be joined by podcast regulars Elizabeth Henderson - AAM's Head of Fixed Income and Pete Wirtala - AAM's Insurance Strategist. Each episode the trio will be joined by a guest who will offer insights into particular sectors. This episode, the team welc...

In this episode of The Portfolio Fix, AAM's CIO Reed Nuttall speaks with each of the asset class sector heads about their expectations for 2024. Introduction - Reed Nuttall, Chief Investment Officer 1:10 - Marco Bravo, Senior Portfolio Manager: Discussion of the economy in 2023 and AAM’s economic outlook for 2024 6:25 - Elizabeth Henderson, Director of Corporate Credit: Conversation about AAM...

In this episode of The Portfolio Fix, Marco Bravo digests the Fed’s recent statement and press conference and why the Treasury market is interpreting Chairman Powell’s comments as supportive of several rate cuts in 2024.  Mike Ashley then describes that while the consumer is still healthy, he is monitoring several deteriorating items that suggest the wellbeing of the consumer likely will not be as...

In this episode of The Portfolio Fix, Marco Bravo highlights AAM's 2024 economic growth forecast and why we think the Fed will not cut as much as market consensus.  Garrett Dungee describes why the Technology sector remains cyclical despite the diversification of its customer base over the past decade.  He also details the secular trends that should lead to growth well in excess of broad econ...

In this episode of The Portfolio Fix, Marco Bravo describes why Fed policy and continued labor strength is behind the recent volatility in the Treasury market. Elizabeth Henderson explains the secular changes taking place to business models in the media sector, and how that affects content, advertising, revenue streams and ultimately company creditworthiness.  This episode was recorded on 10/23/23...

In this episode of The Portfolio Fix, Marco Bravo talks about what is behind the economy’s resiliency and why the Treasury curve is likely to remain elevated for the next year.  Andy Bohlin explains what is behind the weakness in the Utility sector, how that has created volatility and why there are now opportunities in a traditionally defensive sector. This episode was recorded on October 27, 2023...

In this episode of The Portfolio Fix, Elizabeth Henderson reviews the recent Moody's Corporate Credit roundtable in which she participated. She highlights the resilient investment grade and high yield markets but points out two risks highlighted by other panelists - the private credit market and higher oil prices. Patrick McGeever explains why oil prices are at elevated levels and details why...

In this episode of The Portfolio Fix, Tim Senechalle explains why recent improved inflation data may not mean an imminent return to a normal Treasury Curve. Andy Bohlin follows with an update on the Auto sector, one of the first industries to experience rapid inflation, and why conditions in that sector are normalizing. This episode was recorded on July 21, 2023. Source: Bureau of Economic Analysi...

In this episode of The Portfolio Fix, Leah Savageau explains why the banking sector is likely to face higher wholesale funding costs following the acute liquidity deterioration in March. She goes on to describe why her primary concern has shifted from liquidity to banks’ lending books. Marco Bravo also interprets the recent inflation data points and how markets are reacting. This episode was recor...

In this episode of The Portfolio Fix, AAM's CIO Reed Nuttall and the sector heads of each of our asset classes provide our expectations for 2023.  We discuss our views on the U.S. economy along with each of the fixed income markets.   The episode is approximately 30 minutes long and in the words of Reed - we are cautious heading into the new year but looking to be opportunistic. Sources: Bure...

In the latest episode of The Portfolio Fix, Marco Bravo interprets Fed Chairman Powell’s press conference as meaning more rate hikes, which should likely lead to weaker growth and higher unemployment in 2023.  Mike Ashley then provides the key items he’s monitoring in evaluating the consumer and ultimately the retail sector - unemployment, excess savings and credit card balances.   This episode wa...

In the latest episode of The Portfolio Fix, Marco Bravo makes sense of a confusing jobs report from December 2nd, 2022 and the likely impact on future Fed rate actions.  Garrett Dungee outlines the coming accounting changes for Long Duration Targeted Improvements (LDTI), which will likely affect many of Life Insurance companies within the next several years. Sources: Bureau of Labor Statistics, U....

In this episode of The Portfolio Fix, Marco Bravo details why AAM believes future Fed rate hikes of at least 100 basis points are likely and Patrick McGeever provides his views on why the natural gas situation in Europe is likely to be a headwind again in 2023. Sources:  Bureau of Labor Statistics, The Federal Reserve, Bloomberg, IMF This episode of The Portfolio Fix was recorded on November 3 and...

In the latest episode of The Portfolio Fix, Marco Bravo provides AAM’s gloomy outlook on inflation, interest rates, unemployment and growth for 2023. Andy Bohlin describes why the Chemical & Packaging Sector can give an early glimpse into economic cycles and the indicators that are suggesting a deteriorating economy. Sources: Bureau of Economic Analysis, Blue Chip Financial Forecasts, Federal...

In the latest episode of The Portfolio Fix, Marco Bravo details why AAM expects inflation to remain higher than consensus and what that likely means for rates and risk assets.  Dan Byrnes describes the new opportunity AAM sees in mortgages and notes how unrealized losses can affect portfolio management flexibility.  Sources: The Federal Reserve, Bureau of Labor Statistics, Truist Securities This e...

In this episode of The Portfolio Fix with AAM, Marco Bravo explains why yields have risen so much in the past month and why markets are suggesting a 75bps rate hike on September 21 is likely.  Additionally, Elizabeth Henderson and the corporate team discuss why liquidity, margin pressure and stretched valuations should lead to wider spreads in the upcoming months. Sources: Bureau of Labor Statisti...

In this episode of the Portfolio Fix, Marco Bravo details what we learned about inflation and employment this past week and how that data is influencing the Treasury curve. Additionally, Gene Pretti of Zazove Associates explains what is driving convertible bond returns in this turbulent environment and why active management is outperforming convertible bond indices in 2022. Sources: U.S. Bureau of...