The Political Risk Brief

Early evidence suggests highly educated workers might already be experiencing AI-driven labor displacement. While the economic data does not yet support claims of wider job losses, such trends could generate a new form of economic disaffection among professionals and creative workers, much as globalization contributed to disaffection among segments of the working class. This episode explores wheth...

The fault lines between the United States and Europe have shifted dramatically. Tensions largely overlooked for decades now threaten to rupture the transatlantic relationship. The Baron team examines the causes of this emerging conflict, a recent precedent to inform our understanding of the decisive factor precipitating change, and the indicators of how the future might unfold.

The devastating defeat suffered by Democrats in 2024 revealed and deepened long-standing divisions within the American Left.  During this episode, the Baron team defines the major divides driving intra-Left competition, the most consequential factions of the Left, and possible outcomes to the fight over the future of the Democratic Party.

Since President Trump’s 2016 election victory, the American Right has undergone a major shift on the role of organized workers in the economy and labor policy.  In this episode, the Baron team discusses the reasons for a more pro-labor conservative movement, the future direction of right-of-center approaches to labor, and the impacts on politics and the business community.

For decades, the Chinese Communist Party has defied Western predictions about China’s trajectory. In this episode, the Baron team explores why Western policy makers so often misunderstand China, what lessons can be drawn from these blind spots, and opportunities to better shape the future of the U.S.-China relationship.

Reflections on the role and legacy of Charlie Kirk, the contemporary conservative movement’s indispensable man.

The first 100 days of Trump’s second term have unfolded within a radically reshaped information environment. In this episode, the Baron team discusses the key Super Influencers shaping the Trump White House, explores what they reveal about the Administration’s agenda, and looks ahead to the next 100 days.

President Trump’s return to the White House already has sent shockwaves through “permanent Washington.”  The changes underway constitute the greatest political reform effort   attempted in decades. Amid this upheaval and uncertainty, business leaders must navigate unfamiliar challenges and deploy unconventional solutions.  This episode of the  Political Risk Brief  examine...

Election 2024 already has reshaped the American political landscape. The Baron team details the “four great betrayals” that produced the most remarkable presidential campaign in decades.  Now, once and future President Donald J. Trump leads a fractious coalition on the Right, and the business community must navigate an unfamiliar and changing competitive environment.

As the country hurtles toward a presidential election, surprising uncertainty surrounds the specific policy preferences of a possible second Trump Administration. In this episode, the Baron team highlights trends from the firm’s recent  Influencer Analytics  study of the most important outside influencers around President Trump and his campaign.  Based on Baron’s collection and asse...

The Baron team delves into the political stability of Europe and examines the future of the European project.  Based on Baron principal Jonathan Baron’s recent trip to the former Austro-Hungarian Empire, the discussion also covers potential scenarios for the revitalization or decline of Europe as an important consideration for America’s approach to geopolitics. 

The denizens of “Gucci Gulch” have fallen on hard times.  For even the largest lobbying firms, average monthly retainers have declined during the last decade.  To add insult to injury, this lobbying recession has occurred amidst unprecedented overall prosperity for Washington, D.C.  Episode 22 of the Political Risk Brief podcast explores this curious trend and corporate political co...

Leaders in government and business should recognize America’s social capital collapse as the most serious threat to the nation’s political stability and economic strength.  In this episode, Baron analyzes the policy implications of a nation “falling apart” and explores potential solutions.

Even as the U.S.-China economic relationship remains pivotal, Beijing increasingly denies outsiders visibility into the nation’s intentions and governance.  Previous approaches to understanding and shaping Beijing’s views – whether utilizing either high-prestige “fixers,” or on-the-ground data sources – have proven unreliable. In episode 20 of the  Political Risk Brief , the Baron t...

Philanthropic foundations today act as major competitors in policymaking, often dwarfing the efforts of even the largest private enterprises. Although commonly unrecognized or underestimated, massive not-for-profit organizations increasingly shape the elite policy consensus. In this episode, the Baron team discusses this “invisible hand” guiding political competition and recommends appro...

The health care sector has entered a period of intensified political conflict. Building for decades and accelerated by powerful external forces, this clash of some of the nation’s largest companies promises to affect millions of Americans and reveals important lessons regarding corporate competition waged through the arena of government. The Baron team reviews the history of health care...

Often in American political life, an individual or small group embodies an era. In this episode, Baron explores Washington’s current man of the moment: Jeffrey Zients.  His rise to the pinnacle of national political power reveals fundamental insights into America’s contemporary political elite.

The ever-changing competition to shape policy in Washington, D.C. challenges even the most experienced practitioners. In this episode, the Baron team distills the critical government relations trends that define the current government relations and issue advocacy landscape.

Corporate America’s relationship with the Republican Party is undergoing the most significant change in four decades. The movement driving this shift: National Conservatives, or “NatCons.” What is national conservatism? Who are the NatCons? If successful, how will NatCons alter the long-dominant GOP policy consensus in support of free trade, low corporate taxes, and light antit...

America’s leading corporations appear poised for a dramatic escalation in engagement of Washington, D.C.  Baron explores this emerging phenomenon by examining Amazon’s massive investment in the nation’s capital, which threatens to ignite an influence arms race among the  Fortune  100.

With Taiwan now a focal point of U.S. foreign policy,  Episode 13  explores how Washington has come to view China-Taiwan tension. The Baron team explores major blind-spots on the U.S. side, including the role of predictions, the value of ambiguity, and concepts of sovereignty.

The federal government is the world’s biggest customer. Public sector procurement increasingly drives private sector innovation and tips markets. In Episode 12 , the Baron team details the shifting dynamics of U.S. government procurement and offers a practical guide for understanding the business and political implications of the private sector’s public sector future.

The increasing wealth and near-total enlistment of the nation’s capital into a partisan mission risks creating a permanent state of conflict between the federal government and half the electorate. In Episode 11 , the Baron team discusses how such tension threatens to mire the U.S. public sector in debilitating dysfunction and create massive challenges for business leaders. 

Will American populism meaningfully change policy? In Episode 10, the Baron team attempts to determine the actual resonance of the reformist ideas now challenging the postwar consensus. To test the thesis of populist ascendancy, the firm applied  Influencer Analytics  to antitrust, quantitatively studying the specific populist movement that aspires...

America’s defining quality – trust – appears in serious decline. If so, how will this redefinition of the nation’s civilizational character change business, politics, and the public square? In this episode, Baron investigates declining American trust and the implications.