The NZ Property Market Podcast

Send us a question/idea/opinion direct via text message! It was a quieter week of data releases last week with just the CoreLogic Buyer Classification data for August and Kelvin's article on the cost to trade up to discuss.  Stats NZ's release of migration data just prior to recording is also mentioned, however otherwise it's a look ahead to a busier week of data coming out, includi...

Send us a question/idea/opinion direct via text message! The Corelogic House Price Index showed the downward trend in property values gather steam in August but after providing a bit more detail of the results, Nick also mentions the early signs of some light at the end of the tunnel. The foundation of the NZ labour market appears to remain as solid as ever too, with Kelvin reporting filled jobs i...

Send us a question/idea/opinion direct via text message! In another special addition podcast, Nick is joined by Mark Harris, Managing Director of Sotheby's International Realty NZ , to discuss all things Queenstown.  As can often be the case, the Queenstown property market is currently marching to it's own beat and with the borders now open, optimism for the area is high. Mark started So...

Send us a question/idea/opinion direct via text message! This week Kelvin opens discussion with a summary of his trip to Rotorua to be on a panel at the Master Builders conference. Challenging but not dire would probably sum up the vibe and expectations of where things are headed. At the same conference, Housing Minister Megan Woods announced the " Build Ready Development Pathway " desig...

Send us a question/idea/opinion direct via text message! No surprises for guessing what the topic of interest is this week - the RBNZ's August Monetary Policy Statement (MPS) . Yes, the Official Cash Rate (OCR) increased by another 0.5% to now be 3%, but of more interest to our data loving friends are the forecasts within and what's actually said in the statement.  Nick and Kelvin provid...

Send us a question/idea/opinion direct via text message! This week, Nick and Kelvin lead the podcast with a discussion about whether first home buyers should wait to buy in a falling market. There are a number of factors to consider and not all of them financial - Kelvin teased all of the data out in his written article last week. Sticking to the theme of first home buyers, there's also the C...

Send us a question/idea/opinion direct via text message! In another special edition guest podcast, Nick and Kelvin welcome their Australian counterparts to have a discussion around some of the similarities and differences between the NZ and AU property markets. Tim Lawless , CoreLogic International Research Director, and Eliza Owen , Head of AU Research are hugely experienced and well respected ma...

Send us a question/idea/opinion direct via text message! The CoreLogic House Price Index (HPI) for July leads the discussion today and flows through to the consideration of negative equity for some recent buyers, particularly in the Wellington region. The availability and cost of lending remains central factors to watch, so recent announcements of further changes to CCCFA, stronger mortgage rate c...

Send us a question/idea/opinion direct via text message! First up this week is a correction from last week's show, where reference to the 'home ownership' portion of the Stats NZ CPI measure was incorrectly defined as including rents, rates and other costs. There's been confusion in the naming conventions and definitions but after contact from a keen listener, Kelvin provides a...

Send us a question/idea/opinion direct via text message! Last week, A stronger than expected CPI figure led to some economists changing their forecasts for the OCR, however Kelvin ponders whether it was necessary. He also delves into some of the detail behind the strong inflation result and of course considers whats next. Has inflation peaked? A similar question is asked regarding constructions co...

Send us a question/idea/opinion direct via text message! The RBNZ's decision to lift the OCR by another 0.5%, to 2.5%, was entirely expected, however there's still a lot to discuss in terms of the implications and future of mortgage interest rates. Meanwhile the REINZ data release for June prompted an in depth look into sales volumes, which really have fallen away dramatically. Plus, any...

Send us a question/idea/opinion direct via text message! Kelvin is out of isolation and there is plenty of data, particularly from CoreLogic, to chew over. Firstly the House Price Index data for June was released last week, further illustrating the embedded downturn we're in. Nick's release pondered where to from here, noting interest rates, including the official cash rate (OCR) which i...

Send us a question/idea/opinion direct via text message! Plenty of data and other releases to cover this week, starting with RBNZ lending data for May. Most interestingly there was a lift in low deposit lending, but Kelvin also picks up on the reduction of interest-only lending as worthy of attention. Full article available too. The RBNZ's Chief Economist Paul Conway also delivered a speech l...

Send us a question/idea/opinion direct via text message! Infometrics' release of their new report "Housing update: A new lens on affordability" dominates the discussion this week, as it brings to the fore the consideration of assessing all payments over the lifetime of a mortgage rather than simply the price paid when bought.  The key headline was that it's now the worst time t...

Send us a question/idea/opinion direct via text message! A number of relevant economic and property market releases lead to a wide-ranging discussion on the state of the NZ economy and the future of the property market (without interest rates dominating!). GDP figures for Q1 showed a contracting economy, to most people's surprise, while the REINZ sales volumes and HPI reaffirmed the market we...

Send us a question/idea/opinion direct via text message! In this special edition guest podcast, Nick interviews Ivan Diaz-Rainey, from the Univerity of Otago. Ivan also holds a number of roles but the two of most interest for today are Director of the Climate & Energy Finance Group and Project Lead for the STRAND Marsden Fund Project.  The discussion essentially forms a preview of the upcoming...

Send us a question/idea/opinion direct via text message! In amongst some wild weather over the weekend, credit conditions and interest rates are back as a key discussion point again this week, given the soon-to-begin relaxation of the CCCFA rules, but on the other hand the start of Quantitative Tightening from the Reserve Bank. Even though the RBNZ envisages QT being a smooth/managed process, Nick...

Send us a question/idea/opinion direct via text message! In what was a relatively quieter week for property market data, Nick and Kelvin spend a bit of time discussing the latest CoreLogic House Price Index (HPI) data and some of the resulting media coverage. It also gave Kelvin an opportunity to check out the new experimental series from Stats NZ regarding Code of Compliance Certificates (CCC) be...

Send us a question/idea/opinion direct via text message! No surprises what dominates the conversation this week - the OCR. And not the rate itself but the forecast track from the RBNZ. How high, how soon, how much did it change compared to the last MPS and what does it likely mean for the property market, all covered off in the show this week. It's a chunky chat, with references to reports fr...

Send us a question/idea/opinion direct via text message! In an absolute bumper episode Nick and Kelvin first cover off the just released CoreLogic Pain & Gain report , providing further proof of the changing market but also a reminder of where we're at in the broader historical context of the market. Then the Government Budget announced last week did actually have something in it for firs...

Send us a question/idea/opinion direct via text message! The latest 6-monthly CoreLogic first home buyers report clearly illustrated the recent struggles for first home buyers as credit availability and affordability pressures impacted their activity. Of course the report goes into greater detail, as do Nick and Kelvin in their resulting discussion. REINZ figures for April are also a hot topic, pa...

Send us a question/idea/opinion direct via text message! Last week's release of the April CoreLogic House Price Index provided the strongest evidence yet, if it was needed, that the market has swung to the negative with some areas seeing the largest drops in value since the Global Financial Crisis.  This, and the release of the Reserve Bank's Financial Stability Report, leads to discussi...

Send us a question/idea/opinion direct via text message! Once again the Reserve Bank has kept us on our toes with a number of releases in the last week. On top of lending data for March showing a continued contraction of high LVR lending (but a bounce in total lending from Feb) we also got the much awaited response to the debt-to-income (DTI) consultation feedback. The RBNZ summary essentially kic...

Send us a question/idea/opinion direct via text message! There's a lot to cover in Nick's first day back from holiday, with inflation data the key topic. Firstly the CPI results for Q1 released by Stats NZ, but also the Cordell Construction Cost Index (CCCI) measuring the cost of building a new house. A couple of articles piqued the guys' interest in the last week too. Stuff's...

Send us a question/idea/opinion direct via text message! Fresh after Easter – including Nick’s time away celebrating his birthday and a family holiday in the Sounds – the key topic for discussion this week is obviously the Reserve Bank’s decision to raise the official cash rate by 0.5% rather than the standard 0.25%. It’ll keep the upwards pressure on mortgage rates, but future rises may be smalle...