The NZ Property Market Podcast

Send us a question/idea/opinion direct via text message! The Reserve Bank has delivered an unexpected baseline shift. This week on a special reactionary episode of the New Zealand Property Market Podcast, Head of Research Nick Goodall and Chief Economist Kelvin Davidson dissect the RBNZ’s unanimous decision to hike the Official Cash Rate (OCR) from 2.25% to 2.5%. Despite a fracturing market consen...

Send us a question/idea/opinion direct via text message! Does high climate risk actually destroy residential property value, or does it create a structural entry point for desperate buyers?  This week on the New Zealand Property Market Podcast, Head of Research Nick Goodall and Chief Economist Kelvin Davidson unpack a groundbreaking new analytics release tracking the long-term price impacts of Cyc...

Send us a question/idea/opinion direct via text message! The underlying data is flashing clear warning signs of economic consolidation. This week on the New Zealand Property Market Podcast, Head of Research Nick Goodall and Chief Economist Kelvin Davidson dissect the latest New Zealand Activity Index (NZAC) and the Reserve Bank’s weekly updated Kiwi GDP Nowcast. The metrics reveal a stark economic...

Send us a question/idea/opinion direct via text message! Are you sitting tight in a three-bedroom home waiting for the property market to "improve"? You might be missing a massive strategic window. In this episode of the New Zealand Property Market Podcast, Head of Research Nick Goodall and Chief Economist Kelvin Davidson unpack the latest "trade-up premium" data . They reveal...

Send us a question/idea/opinion direct via text message! Welcome to a special regional guest edition of the New Zealand Property Market Podcast. This week, Head of Research Nick Goodall returns to his hometown roots to interview Jemma Scott-Davidson , owner and mortgage advisor at Loan Market.  With over 20 years of commercial banking experience before launching her independent advisory firm, Jemm...

Send us a question/idea/opinion direct via text message! The structural shift in the New Zealand property market is cementing itself in the data. While the latest Mapping the Market release reveals a highly patchy horizontal flatline across the regions , the newly updated May Buyer Classification data exposes a deep divide in buyer behaviour. Mortgaged multiple property owners (MPOs) have taken a...

Send us a question/idea/opinion direct via text message! The May Cotality Home Value Index (HVI) results are officially in, delivering a perfectly flat 0.0% national movement. While regional variability persists under the surface - with Christchurch nudging up 0.4% and Wellington softening by 0.3% - the broader market continues to track sideways as buyers hold the pricing power but sellers refuse...

Send us a question/idea/opinion direct via text message! The tide has officially turned for mortgage interest rates . Following the Reserve Bank's razor-edge split decision to hold the OCR last week, borrowers are hitting a major structural shift. An estimated 40% of all New Zealand mortgage debt is exposed to repricing in the next six months alone - shifting from a mindset of two years of fa...

Send us a question/idea/opinion direct via text message! In this special reaction episode, Nick Goodall and Kelvin Davidson unpack the latest RBNZ OCR decision. The rate was held, but only just. The vote was split 3–3, with the Governor casting the deciding vote. This highlights how finely balanced the outlook is. The key message is that rate rises are likely coming. The OCR track has been revised...

Send us a question/idea/opinion direct via text message! With the Reserve Bank's Monetary Policy Statement (MPS) landing this Wednesday, the economic data is sending an interesting signal. April's electronic card transactions were 1.3% month-on-month—with fuel spending down 2% despite rising prices. It’s decent evidence that "demand destruction" is actively under way as househo...

Send us a question/idea/opinion direct via text message! The Q1 2026 Pain and Gain Report is officially live , revealing the clear signals of a buyer's market. While 88% of property resellers still walked away with a gross profit, the share of properties selling at a loss has ticked up to 12% - driven heavily by short hold periods and a challenging apartment sector. This week, Nick Goodall an...

Send us a question/idea/opinion direct via text message! The latest Cotality-Westpac First Home Buyer Report is out, and the data is a clear win for those entering the market. With a 27.5% market share, FHBs are near record levels, but the real story is what they are buying - 77% are securing standalone houses, up from just 70% a few years ago. This week, Nick Goodall and Kelvin Davidson dive into...

Send us a question/idea/opinion direct via text message! The Cotality-Westpac First Home Buyer Report May 2026 In this special guest episode Kelvin Davidson is joined by Satish Ranchhod from the Westpac Economics team to discuss the latest co-branded First Home Buyer Report. They cover off the Iran conflict, the implications for NZ's economy, inflation, and interest rates, then what it might...

Send us a question/idea/opinion direct via text message! The April Home Value Index (HVI) results are in , and while the national median technically rose by a modest 0.1%, the broader picture is one of a flattening market. This week, Nick Goodall and Kelvin Davidson peel back the layers on the regional divide - why are Auckland and Wellington softening while Christchurch and Invercargill continue...

Send us a question/idea/opinion direct via text message! The Q1 2026 CPI data is finally in, landing at a ho-hum 3.1%. While it’s technically above the target band, the market has already moved on to the next big question: exactly when will the RBNZ hold its nerve no longer and lift the OCR? This week, Nick Goodall and Kelvin Davidson break down the inflation stats and why July vs September is the...

Send us a question/idea/opinion direct via text message! Wellington is drying out after a night of torrential rain, but the economic data remains heavy.  This week, Nick Goodall and Kelvin Davidson unpack the March Buyer Classification data , which shows first-home buyers (FHBs) holding a record 27–28% of the market.  We also look at the measured return of smaller investors and why movers are curr...

Send us a question/idea/opinion direct via text message! This week, Nick Goodall and Kelvin Davidson break down the Q1 2026 Cordell Construction Cost Index (CCCI). While cost growth remains relatively controlled at 1% for the quarter, building costs are now 30% higher than they were in March 2020.  We discuss why this controlled growth might be short-lived as global supply chain disruptions and tr...

Send us a question/idea/opinion direct via text message! The RBNZ keeps the OCR at 2.25%, but with inflation forecasts shifting to 4.2% for June, the wait and see period has a very clear focus on rising costs. In this special reactionary episode, Nick Goodall and Kelvin Davidson break down today’s Reserve Bank (RBNZ) Monetary Policy Review. While the decision to hold the Official Cash Rate (OCR) a...

Send us a question/idea/opinion direct via text message! March data confirms a property market upturn was underway - but global second-round inflation risks may have just drawn a line in the sand. In this episode, Nick Goodall and Kelvin Davidson break down the March Home Value Index , which saw a second consecutive 0.2% rise in national property values. While momentum was clearly building in Chri...

Send us a question/idea/opinion direct via text message! In this episode, Kelvin Davidson hosts Gerard Burg, Head of Research in Australia, to discuss the global economic environment, differences and similarities between Australia and New Zealand, and their impacts on the housing markets. They explore recent monetary policy actions, supply chain issues, and geopolitical risks affecting energy and...

Send us a question/idea/opinion direct via text message! This week’s episode explores the sluggish start to 2026, where a weaker-than-expected Q4 GDP result meets a growing sense of sales fatigue. Nick and Kelvin break down why the movers are the key to the next price cycle and how the Reserve Bank might navigate the worst-case scenario of stagflation. Is the New Zealand property market hitting a...

Send us a question/idea/opinion direct via text message! The Q4 Affordability Report is out , and the data shows a significant shift in the New Zealand housing market. After four years of adjustments, key measures of affordability are returning to long-term averages - but as geopolitical tensions rise, will this recovery be cut short? This week, Nick and Kelvin provide essential property market ad...

Send us a question/idea/opinion direct via text message! A surprise 0.2% rise in national property values meets a shifting global landscape. Nick Goodall and Kelvin Davidson analyse how geopolitical tensions could force the Reserve Bank's hand. In this episode, the research desk tackles the unexpected 0.2% rise in the February Home Value Index . While an upturn always starts somewhere, the si...

Send us a question/idea/opinion direct via text message! January’s lending data has landed, and while the crazy peak of December has passed, the underlying numbers reveal a market that is far from quiet.  In this week's Monday morning yarn, Head of Research Nick Goodall and Chief Economist Kelvin Davidson dive into a return to normality for New Zealand lending. After the bank-switching surge...

Send us a question/idea/opinion direct via text message! In this episode of the New Zealand Property Market podcast, Cotality Head of Research Nick Goodall interviews Nicole Ferguson , National Director of Loan Market NZ to celebrate International Women's Day 2026.  Nicole shares her journey from Australia to New Zealand, her leadership experiences, and insights on gender equity in the proper...