The Morning Market Briefing

Ben and Tom discuss WSJ's Timiraos reporting that Trump has been calling Warsh repeatedly since he became Fed Chair — treating him as a trusted economic adviser on the Iran war and AI's economic impact — reigniting the Fed independence debate just as Bessent posted a viral tweet that lit up financial media, memory names WDC dropping 16% and SNDK falling 12% on decelerating quarterly growth despite...

Andrew, Ben, and Tom discuss SpaceX falling 11% despite laying out an ambitious AI and Starlink roadmap including Grok 5 trained on internal SpaceX data by year-end, 1.4GW of current compute growing toward 10GW by end of 2027, deploying NVL72-designed data centers on the ground rather than in space, boots on the moon by 2028, and the goal of scaling launch cadence to one per day in 2027, SpaceX's...

Andrew, Ben, and Tom discuss the industrial demand train continuing to roll with ISM Manufacturing accelerating to 55.6 and employment turning positive for the first time in 33 months, Caterpillar raising guidance and surging 10% on data center engine and turbine demand, Palantir soaring 15% with US commercial revenue up 149% and Karp declaring the "revolution for AI sovereignty" is underway, ON S...

Ben and Tom discuss the rare coordinated currency intervention with the US joining Japan and possibly Korea to prop up the yen from 164 to 155, Japan spending at least $53 billion with the US chipping in over $1 billion — reportedly by selling euros rather than dollars in a strategic move to pressure Eurozone policy while supporting Japan, Bessent's incentive to keep Japan from dumping US Treasuri...

Ben and Andrew discuss a plan for Hamas to disarm in Gaza, Apple and Amazon's earnings reports, and the blowup of the AI focused hedge fund Situational Awarness.  Join our live YouTube stream Monday through Friday at 8:30 AM EST: http://www.youtube.com/@TheMorningMarketBriefing Please see disclosures: https://www.narwhal.com/disclosure

Andrew, Ben, and Tom discuss Warsh holding rates at 3.50-3.75% in a divided 6-3 vote with market-implied inflation expectations dropping meaningfully since the last meeting, the BOE also holding at 3.75% in a matching 6-3 split, the emerging Mag-7 split with Microsoft rising 8% on improved AI ROI, better throughput, and Copilot seat growth versus Meta down 9% on longer time-to-value and fuzzy CapE...

Andrew, Ben, and Tom discuss today's Fed meeting with a 35% chance of a rate hike and expectations of a hawkish hold from Warsh amid potential mutiny from Waller, Bostic, and Lisa Cook, the emerging "semi-stagflation" theme with memory prices destroying demand and slamming chip stocks including Vertiv down 14%, Skyworks and Qorvo down double digits, and KLA down 8%, Procter & Gamble's remarkab...

Ben and Tom discuss the growing Fed infighting reported by WSJ's Nick Timiraos with Governor Chris Waller openly challenging new Fed Chair Kevin Warsh at a dinner over his five new outside expert task forces on communications, inflation framework, asset holdings, data, and AI's impact on productivity, Warsh's notable silence on economic shocks despite the changed environment, the AIA Architecture...

Andrew, Ben, and Tom discuss Nvidia agreeing to guarantee $250 billion in financing for OpenAI's $500 billion 10GW data center in southern Ohio developed by SoftBank Energy with Japan investing $33 billion in the natural gas power plant and the US government splitting power revenues, CXMT's 450% China market debut and Apple's interest in sourcing memory chips from them to avoid hostage-taking by S...

Ben discusses SLB rising 5% after beating on broad-based international drilling activity with its Data Center Solutions business on track to exceed $1 billion annualized run rate this year and $2 billion by end of 2027, Intel's after-hours pop fading as CapEx ballooned to over $20 billion for 2026 with 2027 significantly higher despite strong Client and Data Center results, Tenet Healthcare soarin...

Andrew, Ben, and Tom discuss the Houthis targeting Saudi tankers Encelia and Layla in the Red Sea with Trump vowing to destroy a bridge or power plant for every Strait attack, a mixed AI earnings print with ServiceNow up 6% cementing itself as the AI control tower while Google fell 4% on heavy cloud spend without ad acceleration and TPU revenue pushed to 2027, STMicroelectronics dropping 14% on a...

Andrew, Ben, and Tom discuss the widening Iran war with the US expanding airstrikes to a military site near Tabriz, Iran activating air defenses in Tehran and firing on US bases in Kuwait, Bahrain, and Jordan, the complete breakdown of diplomacy and early talk of ground forces, the landmark 30-year deal approving uranium enrichment in Saudi Arabia for civilian nuclear power with US companies playi...

Andrew, Ben, and Tom discuss what today's earnings say about a broadening economy with 3M raising full-year EPS guidance to $8.80-$8.95 on sharp acceleration in Safety/Industrial and Transportation/Electronics, Steel Dynamics posting +12% total steel volume and +19% steel fabrication shipments backed by reshoring and infrastructure demand, weakness continuing in consumer categories like packaging...

Andrew, Ben, and Tom discuss the escalating Iran war with an Iranian strike killing two US service members and injuring others in Jordan, oil rising to the high $80s and gas moving back above $4 over the weekend, Strait of Hormuz traffic grinding to a standstill, potential renewed diplomatic outreach from Iran's Foreign Ministry, the 10-year holding at 4.56%, Domino's earnings shedding light on a...

Andrew, Ben, and Tom discuss a rough day for US tech with Google delaying Gemini 3.5 Pro after it underperformed on coding benchmarks, China's Moonshot releasing Kimi K3 with claims of rivaling OpenAI and Anthropic's top models, Netflix dropping 10% on decelerating US growth and softening engagement, SpaceX scrubbing its Starship launch after four engines failed to fire, today's options expiration...

Ben and Tom discuss the sharp value-over-momentum rotation with high-flying names getting smashed while broader market breadth improves, SpaceX Starship's critical launch attempt tonight at 5:45 PM local time in South Texas after May's booster spin-out — a launch essential to defending SPCX's $4 billion NASA moon-landing contracts and the broader SpaceX investment thesis — and the levered ETF blow...

Andrew, Ben, and Tom discuss the Reuters report that Stripe and Advent are making a joint $53 billion bid for PayPal at $60.50 per share sending PYPL up 16%, Lucid's near-50% after-hours crash on an EV publication's report of a potential go-private or Chapter 11 restructuring — which the company forcefully denied as "completely false" — Richemont's Americas rising 27% with broad-based jewelry stre...

Andrew, Ben, and Tom discuss June CPI falling to 3.5% and core CPI to 2.6% both below expectations with the biggest month-over-month drop since May 2020, Trump proposing a 20% fee on Strait of Hormuz cargo and reinstating the blockade sending WTI to $80 and Brent to $87, Chris Waller's hawkish pivot as Warsh builds Fed credibility, IBM's 19% drop after warning on the quarter as clients reprioritiz...

Ben and Tom discuss President Trump looking "very strongly" at Australia's mandatory 12% employer-contribution retirement model as a potential answer to the US entitlement problem, and Apple filing a "thermonuclear" lawsuit alleging that OpenAI systematically poached talent and stole trade secrets in one of Tim Cook's last major moves as CEO — echoing Steve Jobs' 2010 declaration of war against Go...

Thomas and Tom discuss former Fed Chair Ben Bernanke joining Anthropic's Long-Term Benefit Trust to advise on white-collar job displacement and AI bubble risks, Israel sharing intelligence with the US about a fresh Iranian plot to assassinate President Trump as ceasefire clashes threaten a mid-August permanent peace deal, OpenAI's number-two executive Fidji Simo stepping back to a part-time adviso...

Andrew, Thomas, and Tom discuss the sharp Iran escalation with reports of a cruise missile impact on a nuclear power plant and missiles sent to Jordan following US strikes on 90 Iranian military targets, Russia's diesel export ban through July 31 sending US diesel up over 13% and London wholesale futures up 14% after Ukrainian drone strikes triggered Russia's worst fuel crisis since the Soviet col...

Andrew, Ben, and Tom discuss Trump declaring the Iran MOU effectively over after calling Iranian leaders "evil sick people" and "cancer," the US retaliation "20 to 1" on Iranian cargo strikes, oil rising back to the mid-$70s and the 10-year climbing to 4.57% ahead of today's auction, Trump's additional broadsides at Spain, Greenland, and NATO, the semiconductor sell-off as investors focus on AI's...

Andrew, Ben, and Tom discuss the ISM Services print showing broader strength with much of the employment gain tied to World Cup-related hiring, Samsung's 10% drop and the KOSPI hitting a circuit breaker despite 150% growth as memory chip volatility returns, Chris Waller's nuanced defense of forward guidance as "more art than science," Rivian's $1.5 billion stock sale of 75 million shares, and Toyo...

Andrew and Tom discuss memory chips ripping again with ASML and LRCX up 5% on the SK Hynix listing, Broadcom's new multi-year custom ASIC deal with Apple through 2031, Solstice's $14.5 billion cash-and-stock acquisition of Element Solutions with Goldman advising, and Mario Draghi's proposal to restructure the EU into smaller blocs to unlock growth. Join our live YouTube stream Monday through Frida...

Andrew, Ben, and Tom discuss the ISM Manufacturing report showing improving new orders and a shift toward hiring while prices moderate, alongside commentary highlighting Middle East pressure on CapEx and stabilizing supply chains, OpenAI's proposal to give the US government a 5% equity stake in the company as part of a broader industry arrangement potentially including Anthropic, Google, and Meta,...