The Megabuyte CEOBarometer Podcast

This quarter’s CEOBarometer captures a sharp shift in the UK tech landscape, as three powerful forces converge: rising geopolitical uncertainty, a rapid repricing of software driven by AI disruption, and tightening dynamics in private capital markets. While headline growth expectations remain modestly positive, sentiment has deteriorated, sales cycles are lengthening again, and confidence across b...

This quarter’s CEOBarometer marks the start of a new year with a UK tech sector still operating in a tough environment – but with clearer signals about where value creation will (and won’t) come from over the rest of the decade. Growth across Software and ICT Services remains constrained after a disappointing 2025, capital markets continue to underserve the sector, and deal activity is selective r...

This quarter’s CEOBarometer analyses a UK tech sector showing signs of stabilisation but still struggling to regain pre-COVID momentum. Growth across Software has levelled off while ICT Services remain under pressure, and capital markets and private equity deal flow are subdued. We look at why 2025 has disappointed, what cautious optimism for 2026 looks like, and how vertical focus, disciplined go...

This quarter’s CEOBarometer dives into the realities of a UK tech sector that entered 2025 expecting growth but is instead facing slower trading, elongated sales cycles, and selective capital. We explore the standouts bucking the trend - from ICT players like Wireless Logic to software innovators like Nervecentre and Origin - and unpack how AI adoption, capital market shifts, private equity’s “fli...

This quarter’s CEOBarometer spotlights subdued trading conditions, faltering investment flows, and the selective rise of AI. Organic growth has slowed across the board—Software companies posted 13% growth, while ICT Services lagged at 7%. The deceleration is sharpest in consulting services, where low recurring revenue and discretionary budget cuts have driven many businesses into stagnation. In co...

In this month's podcast: As we enter 2025, this month’s Megabuyte CEOBarometer adopts a slightly different format. Like last January’s episode, this month’s show runs to an hour to provide a comprehensive round-up of the past year and set the scene for the year ahead. The podcast begins with a 12-month retrospective, revisiting key technology and growth trends, corporate activity data, and a look...

In this month's podcast: Finally, some good news! UK tech sector share prices and valuations actually saw some meaningful improvement in November, making it a positive month for the sector across the board. As expected, M&A volumes were strong, boosted by pre-budget deals, with ICT Services activity seeing a particularly notable pop. Private equity had a strong showing too, with a 10% year-on-...

In this month's podcast: In addition to the usual analysis of corporate activity and valuations, this month’s ‘spotlight’ is on growth trends, providing an overview of current market growth rates, some context on where we are relative to recent highs and lows, and our view on the outlook. In particular, we analyse why, as Software sector growth remains robust, parts of the ICT Services sector stil...

In addition to our customary monthly updates, this month’s show has an AI flavour as we analyse the latest product announcements from key players, revealing what they signal about AI adoption trends and spotlighting three critical takeaways. Meanwhile, in our monthly analysis of share prices, valuations and corporate activity: After a positive summer for share prices in the UK tech sector, Septemb...

While it feels like most tech CEOs are getting on with the new norm, the statistics over the summer tell a different story. While UK tech sector share prices were solid across July and August, and valuations are generally stable, corporate activity in all categories was down, even in the otherwise resilient private equity sector, where weak MBO numbers mean that year-to-date deal volumes are now f...

As we head into the summer lull, June was relatively quiet on the corporate activity front, although the massive valuation on Preqin’s sale to Blackrock certainly caught the eye. Trends observed this year have persisted, with strong private equity volumes contrasting with ongoing, though moderating, weaknesses in M&A, venture capital, and capital markets activities. Meanwhile, notwithstanding...

The patchy recovery continued in May, marked by a notable pop in UK share prices. Trading conditions continue to be mixed but are improving overall, while evidence of the gap between the AI haves and have-nots is growing. Regarding corporate activity, private equity continues to be the bright spot; fundraising numbers clearly suggest that VC has turned a corner, but it was another flat month for M...

Over the last year, I've been working on a major research project on AI strategy. The genesis of this research programme was an AI-focused panel session at the 2023 Megabuyte CEOStrategy Offsite. The depth of audience engagement in that panel session, but also what appeared to be a lack of clear thinking around strategy on AI, left me in little doubt that there was more research needed in this cri...

In April, some familiar trends became more pronounced in the UK tech sector - the most striking of which was the increasing juxtaposition of confidence levels between private equity and the capital markets. There were no fewer than four billion-dollar private equity deals announced - the Darktrace P2P and SBOs from Focus, Rimes, and Zellis – with only three small follow-on offerings in reply from...

March was a busy month for public company results, painting a solid picture overall.  Nonetheless, there were notable exceptions as share prices and public company valuations remained stagnant. Looking at deal flow, a superficial analysis of the data suggests that activity levels in March mirrored those of January and February – and were notably lower than the levels achieved in Q1 2023. While thi...

February in the UK tech sector continued to prove the notion that downturns are sudden and universal whereas recoveries are slow and patchy. While some companies report improved trading, others are still finding it hard going, especially those focused on the financial services sector. Share prices were weak in the UK but much stronger in the US, evidencing an emerging (and worrying) trend that the...

It has been a rather subdued start to the year in most parts of the UK tech sector, but the overall picture does seem to be improving. Trading news, of which there has been plenty, is broadly positive with the emphasis very much on utilising operational leverage to build back to the Rule of 40. Share prices on both sides of the Atlantic consolidated recent gains, but UK stock market corporate acti...

As we kick off 2024, this month’s Megabuyte CEOBarometer follows a slightly different format. In addition to reviewing all of the key share price and corporate activity trends for 2023, this month’s show is all about looking forward to the coming year and beyond. We present on our 10 key predictions for 2024, exploring tech demand trends, valuation dynamics, and the outlook for corporate activity....

In this month's podcast: Finally, there's some positive news to discuss regarding UK tech share prices, as they surged by 11% in November, hinting at the first signs that investors anticipate brighter prospects ahead. Let's hope that this upturn proves to be sustainable this time. Unfortunately, that's where the positive developments for this month largely conclude. Trading conditions remain chall...

In this month's podcast: After a brief summer uptick, the UK tech sector faced a Q4 setback, grappling with tough trading conditions, escalating costs, and, in some cases, excessive leverage. October's 5% drop in tech sector share prices pushed valuations to a decade low, dimming the optimism sparked earlier in the year. Capital investments from venture capitalists hit a five-year low, and apart f...

In this month’s podcast: The market adapts to the 'new norm' of higher interest rates and lower valuations, witnessing a thaw in the SBO market and a resurgence in VC funding in September. However, persistent weakness in M&A volumes, burdened by increased debt servicing costs, prevails. Tech share prices, especially in software, hit a 5-year low, hindering the revival of capital markets deal a...

In this month’s podcast: The summer got off to a roaring start with strong share prices and enhanced corporate activity, but August rolled back much of the gains. Overall, UK tech sector share prices were broadly flat across July and August, modestly underperforming the wider market, and the picture was similar in the US. Public company valuations have largely stabilised at their lower levels but...

In this month’s podcast: While UK tech sector share prices were stronger in June, valuations remain stubbornly low, especially in ICT Services. Meanwhile, the US tech sector continues its rapid recovery with a 33% jump in the tech-heavy NASDAQ so far this year compared to just 7% in the UK. Nevertheless, confidence in capital markets does seem to be recovering, albeit from rock bottom levels, with...

June: It's quiet out there people! Weakening confidence finally spills over into M&A and private equity.

May: Reasonable deal stats hide underlying disquiet while medium-term clouds are gathering for private equity investors.