The Lance Roberts Show Podcast

We previously added exposure to Energy stocks when they were all beat up, and following a correction in oil prices, we expected to see a pick-up. That has happened. As oil prices go up, so do interest rates because of the impact on inflation expectations from higher oil prices. That rally became very over extended and has now flipped with news that Israel will not attack oil fields in Iran. That,...

It's Earnings Season "Rush Week" this week, with the bulk of companies reporting 3rd Quarter results; after that, the stock buy back window is prepared to re-open, providing nearlt $1-T in funds to flood the markets. The median value of stock portfolios is $250k, up from $190k. Demand for AI chips is not going away. Markets entering the seasonallt-strong period of the year after hitting new, all-t...

All was not hunky-dory in the recent Fed meeting, as the FOMC Meeting minutes reveal a split-decision on lowering rates by 50-bps vs 25-bps. Meanwhile, in the markets, the S&P is having its Best Year Ever since the "turn of the century." The current, rising wedge is both a bullish and bearish sign; CPI numbers will be today's trigger. Volatility in the markets, thanks to uncertainty over presi...

There is a very define, rising wedge in the markets, which is both bullish and bearish: It all depends upon to which side markets break out next. As of Wednesday (9/9), we are right at the top of that bullish wedge. IF today's CPI report is good, and markets break to the upside, you will see markets continue higher, triggering a buy signal on the MACD. If inflation comes in hotter-than-expected, m...

The Trauma of Hurricanes revisited: Hurricane Alicia (1983) remembered as Hurricane Milton bears down on Florida today; Lance shares his bizzare dream about aliens refuting Flat-earthers; why high interest rates are unsustainable. Fed rate cuts don't mean rates will go straight down. Why 4% rates cannot last for long. Markets rally amid price compression; what is sustaining markets, historically h...

Is the era of low interest rates over? Lots of videos being posted to that effect, that the economic data doesn't support higher rates, there's too much debt for higher rates, etc., etc. That doesn't mean that rates have to come straight down when the start to go lower. Well, rates have begun to fall, and we've had the predictable result of bonds selling off and bond yields moving higher. Friday's...

Markets sold off on Monday as part of a price compression process. Futures are pointing upward this morning, and markets need to hold levels today. We're on a sell signal and need to work off over bought positions. Earnings season will generate the next set of drivers as we head into the election. Mid-October thru the end of the month tends to be a bit weaker period. Meanwhile, volatility has been...

This week marks the start of earnings season for Q; the 2024 Election and the next FOMC Meeting also add volatility to markets. Friday's Jobs report came in stronger than expected (leaving one to wonder what kind of revision to the numbers is to come). Within the report, 700k gubernment workers were added. The S&P on Friday rallied on the employment news, but that also pretty much killed any c...

The S&P rallied nicely Friday on a strong employment report, and surprisingly so; that eliminates the likelihood of a 50-bps rate cut in November. For us, if we're the Fed, and employment is that strong, we would cut rates at all. But that's just us. Markets rallied towards the top of the consolidation range. Today's opening looks to give up a chunk of Friday's gains, and as in previous consol...

Market preview & Fed possiblities as jobs numbers are releasaed today; anecdotal evidence that small businesses are making more credit inquiries to banks: A prelude to more growth? The Longshoreman's strike is suspended with a proposed 65% pay increase; raises the question of value in the cost of a college degree. The marriage of blue collar jobss to AI will present new opportunities with rewa...

A preview of tomorrow''s employment report an the phenomenon of "labor hoarding;" a weaker jobs report will not necessarily be recessionary. Markest are retesting support, and if it cannot hold, will trigger a sell signal. Lance's FEMA rant & JOLTS preview w Michael Lebowitz; the labor market is behaving like the housing market: no one is doing anything. What will the Fed do in response to poo...

Markets sold down over 1%, but then rallied towards the end of the day with institutional buyers, which has been the markets' nature of late. There is still good buying demand. Markets have retested July's highs and bounced off in a classic retest of a breakout. The important thing would be to see if markets can hold that position, but futures this morning are a bit lower. If the markets cannot ho...

A brief recap of the VP-debate; market futures are lower in search of a catalyst, and dislike the uncertainty preceeding an election. Markets have pulled backk thanks to investor exhaustion; Oil prices are on the rise amid escalation of hostilities in the Middle East, creating short-term risks until resolved. The Port Strike isn't 'the thing' that will trigger markets. Look for alternative shippin...

Markets sold off in a pullback of investor exhaustion, and the first crack in an upward trend, on the back of the Israel/Iran hostilities' acceleration. The 20-DMA will be the first test of support for markets, and could set markets up for a little bit bigger decline; the 100-DMA is the running support line presently. It is entirely possible markets could trade lower heading into the election, whi...

It's a big news week: The Dock Workers' strike has begun, Israel is launching a land assault into Lebanon, and celebrity deaths (Pete Rose, Kris Kristofferson) top the news. And Jimmy Carter turns 100. Meanwhile, Q3 Earnings Season commences after three very strong quarters of business in what has been one the of the best presidential years since the 1950's. A correction at this point would be hea...

Markets ended the month of September trading in negative territory for much of the day. Institutional end-of-the-quarter buying at the end of the day boosted stocks to close higher on the day. On a short term basis markets are functionally extended. We're now in the space where markets gain and then stall, and then gain and then stall, again. Markets are now well-deviated from their 100-DMA. But m...

The last day of September brings the end of the month, end of the quarter, and a preview of the next round of corporate earnings. So far, no evidence of recession is appearing. Regardless of your investment thesis, money flow still matters most, and there's lots of money flowing into markets. China is most over-bought in years, thanks to Chinese government stimulus. Earnings outlooks will matter g...

Earnings season begins tomorrow, and the stock buyback window closes until the end of October. There's really nothing wrong with the markets following August's correction. Markets are getting very over bought relative to the 20- and 50-DMA, with decent divergences from the moving averages. And any time you see such divergence away from the daily and weekly moving averages, it is inevitable that th...

Jonthan & Jonathan stand in for Danny & Rich with a preview of today's PCE report, and inklings of dissent within the Fed on the latest rate cut. The handwriting is on the wall for Savers; time to reassess strategies as interest rates fall. Ho will the election outcomes affect your financial planning? Worst-case scenario: a contested election (the markets hate uncertainty). With the ebb an...

Plenty of things to move markets this week, including economic numbers and multiple Fed members' commentaries on why they did what they did last week. Are there more cuts to come? Millennial Earnings Season and no buy backs will impact markets soon. Is the AI trade dead? Don't count on it. Micron turned in a strong earnings report, and the CIA's own AI investments(?) are doing verrry well. Markets...

The markets; short term "Cup & Handle" formation was confirmed on Wednesday, which is a technical expression of markets' bullishness. Such usually leads to higher stock prices, leading analysts to predict S&P 6,000 in 2025. This year has seen the second-largest equity inflows since 2014. Foreign inflows to U.S. stocks have been "ginormous." Regardless of your ideas about the markets and in...

Could the S&P hit 6,000 by the end of the year? Some prognosticators are saying so, hyped on exuberance, but consumer confidence is suggesting otherwise, and the foreshadowing is not great for the White House incumbent. Consumer spending & sentiment is incongruent with market expectations. Markets remain bullish, and another "Cup & Handle" formation has appeared, suggesting higher mark...

Markets are pretty bullish, short term: Technically speaking, last year's "Cup & Handle" formation suggested markets would go higher this year, which is exactly what happened. That same formation has repeated itself this year, and what we're looking for at this point is a retest of the 20-DMA to confirm the pattern's formation (and inferrence of higher market performance in 2025). Meanwhile, s...

Oil prices conitnue to weaken in the face of optimism from analysts now forecasting an 18% gain in earnings in 2025. One of them is wrong. Lance and Jonathan discuss market clarity, Fed rate cuts, and the impact on the markets. Markets trade on the effective Fed rates; what's the sweet spot among market sectors when rates are coming down? Lance reviews Gold behaviors during rate cutting cycles; bi...

Oil prices have rallied and are becoming over bought, but remain weak overall. This decline in oil prices is undermining some of the more exuberant outlooks for earnings, going into the fourth quarter, and certainly opinions about growth in 2025 (which some analysts are calling for 18% earnings growth next year!) So expectations that things are going to kick off to the moon as the Fed lowers rates...