The Lance Roberts Show Podcast

This is a mash-up of previously broadcast show audio, from Tuesday (12/8), Wednesday (12/11), Tuesday (12/17), and Wednesday (12/18): More commentary on those who would think they can beat the market, and what's in store if the show goes straight to YouTube (no filter). Old maxims about investing no longer hold true with the velocity of information and distortion of the markets. Why does no one wa...

This is a mash-up of previously broadcast show audio, from Tuesday (12/10) and Monday (12/16): Lance discusses why the NFIB Small Business Index matters (and what it is saying); the NFIB Confidence Index; expectatinos vs actual sales; they always fall short of expectations. Why tariffs are a benefit to small businesses. Outlook is very positive following Trump re-election (most small business owne...

This is a compilation of previously broadcast segments gathered from Monday (12/9), Tuesday (12/10), and Tuesday (12/17):  Tax-loss Harvesting & RMD's: Do it now. (Why you shouldn't wait until after Christmas.) Understanding the Wash-Sale Rule; speculate in taxable accounts, not IRA's and 401-k's. A plethora of ETF's: all money flows feed into underlying stocks; $1-T into ETF's this year....

Portfolio Manager Michael Lebowitz makes a rare, in-studio appearance with Lance Roberts, discussing whether another market liquidity event might be on the horizon? While there is generally good liquidity in the financial system, there are some nascent signs that problems could arise. The ISM Services Index is showing weaknesses, and more economic reports to come this month are likely to mirror su...

Portfolio Manager Michael Lebowitz makes a rare, in-studio appearance with Lance Roberts, discussing whether another market liquidity event might be on the horizon? While there is generally good liquidity in the financial system, there are some nascent signs that problems could arise. The ISM Services Index is showing weaknesses, and more economic reports to come this month are likely to mirror su...

This is a mash-up of previously broadcast show audio, from Wednesday (12/4) and Monday (12/9): Periods of extreme leverage and speculation are not new, and the outcomes have consistently been painful for unprepared investors. The late 1990s dot-com bubble serves as a prime example. Speculative bets on internet stocks drove valuations to extraordinary levels, with investors leveraging margin accoun...

This is a mash-up of previously broadcast show audio, from Tuesday (12/3) and Wednesday (12/4): Periods of extreme leverage and speculation are not new, and the outcomes have consistently been painful for unprepared investors. The late 1990s dot-com bubble serves as a prime example. Speculative bets on internet stocks drove valuations to extraordinary levels, with investors leveraging margin accou...

Heads-up: We're on vacation for the next two-weeks starting Monday (12/23); audio podcasts will be available on iTunes, Spotify, and a host of other audio platforms. Check our website, www.realinvestmentadvice.com for complete links.  Rich & Danny's final live show of the year starts with coverage of Tariffs, inflation vs deflation, and Jerome Powell's performance as Fed Head. Being cauti...

We're on vacation for the next two-weeks starting Monday (12/23); audio podcasts will be available on iTunes, Spotify, and a host of other audio platforms. Check our website, www.realinvestmentadvice.com for complete links. The House's Continuing Resolution fails to pass muster, thanks to pressure from president-elect Donald Trump and the emerging D.O.G.E. team. Meanwhile, the Fed cuts rates, as e...

The Federal Reserve cut rates 25-bp, as expected, but the language was more hawkish than anticipated, and the Fed's "Dot Plot" of anticipated rate cuts for 2025 suggested fewer incidents of rate trimming next year. That took a bit of juice out of the punch bowl and spooked the markets. But remember, the Fed is never right about anything, and these predictions are the worst on anything they do. Lan...

It's Fed Day with it's much anticipated rate cut; what will matter more is the Fed's dot-plot and comments on expectations for 2025. Meanwhile on Wall Street, sloppy trading continues as fund manager rebalance portfolios. Markets are sitting on the 20-DMA and holding firm. The Healthcare Sector is the year's worst performer: Will it offer the most opportunity in 2025? This sector tends to perform...

Markets are sitting right on the 20-DMA, holding support. As the flirting continues within a trading range, watch for a push higher today. However, there is still some selling-off to be done, and we may see some of that this afternoon following the Fed's announcement. This is part of the set up to get markets to rally into the New Year. This has been a really sloppy trading week...as expected. Bas...

Retail Sales numbers this week will feed into expectations for 2025. Fed meeting tomorrow: Cut and pause, or cut and slow? Employment revisions are also due, but markets won't care. The stock market is still hitting all time highs, but that's not necessarily the case, sector by sector: Basic Materials, Industrials, Financials, and Energy are not mirroring the S&P 500; the Magnificent 7 is resp...

The stock market hitting all-time highs has been somewhat limited to only a few, major stocks. Sector by sector, things have not been quite as grand. Basic Materials, Industrials, Financials, and even Energy stocks have not followed the same trend as the S&P 500. Why is this? Because of the Mag-7 stocks, like Apple, Amazon, Google, and Nvidia, etc. Market breadth is declining. Dig into any sec...

Microstrategies joins the S&P 100 (just in time to crash?) Bitcoin continues to climb. The FEd will cut rates on Wednesday, but it's commentary and outlook are what will really count. Look for more volatility heading into the Fed meeting; the current rally may end by the 18th. Oil prices have been struggling, thanks to slowing economic growth = less demand. Gold is over-bought, working through...

Lots of volatility in the markets last week, as expected; we're still on a short-term sell signal. Volatility is expected to continue this week, at least until the Fed's announcement on Wednesday afternoon. Oil prices continue to struggle on a longer-term basis. A recent uptick in inflation data has been a function, in part, of higher oil prices. But oil prices are over-bought, and they're not exp...

Markets are setting up for a Santa Claus Rally; inflation pressure remains. What will the Fed do next week, and what will Powell SAY? The impact of tariffs may not be too dire; optimism abounds on Wall Street. Danny & Matt discuss end of year RMD's and how to best handle non-spousal Inherited IRA distributions. Constant changes in IRS rules are difficult to follow; delaying distributions might...

Lance reviews a recent report about generational wealth transfers, and notes that his kids get NOTHING. Wednesday's CPI report was seemingly the last hurdle for the Fed to cut interest rates. With the CPI index matching Wall Street forecasts, the Fed Funds futures market now implies a 97% chance the Fed will cut rates next Wednesday. The data was OK but elicits fears that the downward price progre...

Markets sold off towards the 20-DMA on Monday and Tuesday, as part of the portfolio rebalancing that normally occurs this time of year. Under-performing and under-weighted stocks have had rallies over the last few days, even as the rest of the market was selling off. Markets did see a bit of a bouce on Wednesday as managers bought and sold to achieve equilibirum. There are probaly another three or...

Post-election consumer confidence is rocketing higher. Inflation Data is coming: CPI & PPI which will be digested in time for next week's Fed meeting. Inflation numbers are likely to tick up from YOY comparisons. Portfolio re-balancing commences. What does financial success look like? Lance and Jonathan review the answers by-generations. Stocks vs Bonds: Earnings growth expectations are too hi...

 happen to the top 10-20% of the Russell 2000: All those high-momentum stocks that were up 50- to 90% this year were sold off because they were over weighted in portfolios, and this created a very big draw-down in momentum on Monday. Markets are flattish in the pre-open, and may achieve some recovery today, but markets are still fairly deviated from their moving averages. We are likely to tri...

Lance's Husbands' Christmas shopping warning service; markets are now in second week of sloppy trading. Portfolios out-of-balance will trigger volatility as managers adjust weighting. There is a possible correction coming, BUT markets could continue to rally all the way into the New Year. Tesla is up 54% since the election; a plethora of ETF's: all money flows feed into underlying stocks; $1-T int...

Markets performed well last week, continuing to rise to new highs on Friday. There is now a huge deviation from moving averages, so there's a real risk for correction...but no guarantee: Markets COULD continue to rally into the New Year. The Volatility Index is also suggesting the same potentiality. An uptick in volatility...and a market correction...would be absolutely normal. Any pull back will...

Portfolio Manager Michael Lebowitz makes a rare, in-studio appearance with Lance Roberts, discussing whether another market liquidity event might be on the horizon? While there is generally good liquidity in the financial system, there are some nascent signs that problems could arise. The ISM Services Index is showing weaknesses, and more economic reports to come this month are likely to mirrow su...

The Big news overnight is that Bitcoin hit $100,000 with President-election Trump's appointment of pro-cryptonian, Paul Atkins, to return as SEC Chief. Consider, Bitcoin was at $60k back in October; this recent climb culminates a long period of consolidation. Caution should be the watchword, however, as Bitcoin is highly deviated from its long-term moving averages. Eventually, it will get a pullba...