The Lance Roberts Show Podcast

What do the Three Stooges and the Fed's rate cut plans have in common? Risk appetites are on the rise with the Reddit IPO; what if inflation heats up and the Fed cannot cut rates? We're living in a government-driven economy. The challenges to withdrawal rates: Goal-harvesting. Goal shifting when retirement guardrails change. The Reddit IPO: Let the euphoria burn away. Risks to Medicare Advantage p...

Markets respond to the Fed rate announcement, indicating at least three rate cuts this year, the first one coming as soon as June. Danny & Jonathan discuss Bond behaviors in the aftermath and investor response to the Fed rate announcement. Changes to the Child Tax Credit for 2024 (it's not a deduction, but a credit against the tax you owe); caveat: It's not indexed for inflation. What about us...

There's a definite correlation between changes in stock buybacks and changes in market performance. With the closure of the stock buyback window by the blackout period, the effects will be interesting, especially with the prevailing attitudes in an over-extended market. We also notice Bitcoin is having an excellent correction. Lance and Michael discuss the Fed's Dot Plot and plans for Quantitative...

The markets continue to bounce along the 20-DMA, each time touching the mark, the algo's kick in to push stocks to the top of the trading range. This pattern has continued for the past 250-days without a correction; a very complacent rise in markets. The longer this pattern continues, the closer a correction gets. Worth noting: The angle of ascent is beginning to flatten; a correction doesn't nece...

During the week we were off for Spring Break, absolutely nothing changed: There is still no reason for the Fed to cut rates, and markets have finally re-aligned with the Fed's "Dot Plot." The share buyback blackout window is imposed starting on Friday, which has been an important factor in the markets' rally. Yet the bullish trend continues; watch Apple as it implements Goggle's Gemini AI into iPh...

(3/18/24) In one week's time (while we were on vacation, literally nothing changed in the markets. Markets' bullish trend continues, with future also trending higher this morning. Watch Apple following its agreement to implement Google's Gemini AI into iPhone. The signal you're seeking to reduce equity risk will be a break in the 20-DMA, and as the algorithms begin to sell on that break, that coul...

Earnings growth are a function of economic growth; the US Economiy is de-coupled from the rest of the world, which economy is poor. The danger of deficits (that are funding our economic growth); SOTU Preview: "The economy is great." Market continues trading in a very tight range, but ever upward; this is when complacency sets in. The market is setting up for correction as the election draws nearer...

Same song, second or third verse: Markets continue to trade within a very tight range, not making any huge advances while slowly trading upwards. This is the dangerous part of the market, where complacency sets in. The "Can't stop/won't stop" market attitude is a repeat of exactly what we saw last year with the AI and Nvidia craze, the MACD signal was stuck at a very high level; we were at over-bo...

Super Tuesday seems to have locked-up the next Presidential contest pairing; economic data is not so good, yet market exuberance continues. Fed speakers abound today ahead of the Fed's blackout period. A record-setting Yield Curve Inversion is underway, still without recession. Markets continue to trade in a narrow range, like clockwork; volatility actually declined. Are we at the top, and not a b...

Markets continue to trade within a very tight range, touching support yesterday. Watch computer algorithms kick-in at the open today to buy the 20-DMA. The current trend is long in the tooth: You typically don't see this level of activity with such low volatility for this long without some kind of corrective move. We don't think there's any reason to worry until we violate that trend line, which W...

Economic Data releases and Fed speeches today will resonate with a rising commentary of no rate cut(s) this year, thanks to sticky inflation. Target's earnings show the consumer is still spending; markets continue in 4-month advance, longest since 1970. Preceding a correction? Markets are operating in a narrow trend channel, with money rotating out of Magnificent Seven Stocks and into meme stocks....

Markets continue their march ever upward, trading in a very narrow range. This current four-month advance is one of the longest in market history, going back to the '70's for anything like it. The magnitude of the advance is roughly 20%. These massive advances typically occur just before you get a correction. An advance of this duration, accompanied by low volumes of volatility, is not normal. But...

Markets are entering the three strgonest months of the year; what if interest arwets aren't cut? February was unusually strong for a "weak" month; what happens during Presidential Election years? Looking at Volatility risk. Markets have been up for 16 of the past 18-weeks; such activity generalluy heralds a correction. Warren Buffett's annual letter: What do to with $160-B in cash? The dilemma of...

Markets have been 'up" 16 out of the past 18-weeks in a relatively low-volatility, narrow trading channel, creating an ever-larger divergence from the 200-DMA. Markets are up 20% in those 18-weeks. The last time we saw something like this was in 1970. The lows of last October were routed by an AI chase, and here we are again with markets sustained by another AI chase. The length of time that the M...

Stock buyback activity is on pace to reach new, all-time highs (and it's only the end of February!) One reason for the gap between large-cap companies and small- and mid-caps is bigger companies' ability to pour cash into buybacks. Will election season cause Wall St. to reduce risk? GDP and Consumer Sentiment numbers all revised downward, but confidence remains high in markets' ability to perform....

(2/29/24) Markets are operating in a very narrow trend channel; the sell-off on Wednesday occurred when markets touched the top of that channel and backed off, like clockwork. Markets have continued to stair-step higher like this ever since November. The MACD indicator, at an over-bought level, continues to trade flatly as the market grinds higher. There continues to be a negative divergence in mo...

Markets continue to trade sideways as the latest earnings season draws to a close. Stock buy-backs will continue for the next three weeks, and then halt in preparation for the NEXT round of earnings reporting. Warren Buffett on buy-backs: Need to occur when companies are under-valued relative to markets for optimal effect; companies are now buying back at high prices. Company stocks are still trad...

(2/28/24) Market futures are not doing a whole lot this morning, which has been the story for stocks the past few days: Small- and Mid-cap stocks look improved in the short term with the recent sideways consolidation. But there is a very big lag between large-cap stocks and the rest of the market. Speculation in Small- and mid-cap stocks is reaching rather extreme levels. About 40% of these compan...

Preparing for this week's economic data releases; what the Fed looks at for Inflation; earnings season concludes with good beat-rate...on lowered expectations. Dow Theory theory and Amazon's joining the S&P 500: When does Nvidia enter the index? Analysts are raising targets for the S&P to 5800 by the end of the year, based on performance of Nvidia and other tech stocks: This is nuts. Marke...

The market is trading within a very defined trend-channel that goes back to November. Every time we get to the top of the trend channel markets sell-off, which is exactly what happened on Monday. As long as the 20-DMA continues to hold, that remains key support for the market. If markets break through the 20-DMA, it will be a indicator of a impending, larger move to the downside. For now, however,...

Stretching February to the absolute limit this week, as earnings season winds down. Next up: Economic activity metrics. Why are economists giving up on Recession, now expecting 2% growth? The difference between what's happening in the economy and the stock market. Recession may be off the table for this year, but it's still coming. There is still no reason to be overly bearish about the market. Wh...

Nvidia earnings did extremely well, jolting the entire market higher by 2% on Thursday, and momentum carried the S&P higher on Friday, closing at an all-time high. So how does a company like Nvidia guarantee growth in a company like VISA? Call options on stocks are reaching very high levels, investor sentiment and exuberance are also at very high levels; positioning by portfolio managers is ve...

Is Nvidia more than a market darling, and has it entered the "tulip stage?" (We don't know when the tulip will die.) How to invest with the maddening crowd without going mad. Candid Coffee preview (registration link is below!) Couples, Money, & Communication: Make it fun (Amazon shots?) Pensions vs Social Security: the confounding Windfall Elimination Provision (WEP) and Government Pension Off...

Has Nvidia become the world's most-valuable company? The S&P is aiming at more all-time highs, but can they hold? Fed minutes reveal no rush to cut rates. The disconnect with markets' expecting more cuts. Will the Fed reduce QT as money flows into markets?  Meanwhile, markets continue to test rising trendline at 20-DMA, as consolidation continues. No reason to be bearish on markets...yet....

Markets sold off Wednesday to test the primary trendline of the bull rally at the 20-DMA. This behavior confirms, for the moment, that the bull rally remains intact. Thanks to Nvidia's big earnings report yesterday, we're expecting a big jump at the open this morning. There are two key things to watch: We still have this consolidation going on, as markets really haven't gone anywhere for the past...