The Labor Market Podcast with Fexingo: Jobs Reports, Unemployment, and Wage Growth

In Episode 82 of The Labor Market Podcast, Lucas and Luna dig into the quiet signal buried in the quits rate: why workers are quitting less even as job openings surge. With the unemployment rate flat at 4.3% and average hourly earnings creeping up to $37.50, the quits rate has fallen to 2.1% — the lowest in a decade outside of a recession. Lucas explains how the quits-to-openings ratio tells a dif...

Lucas and Luna drill into the latest median weekly earnings data — $1,204 for Q4 2025 — and the growing divergence between high-wage and low-wage workers. They connect this to the steady unemployment rate at 4.3% and the surprising jump in job openings to 7.6 million in April 2026. The episode unpacks why aggregate wage figures mask a two-track labor market, and what that means for inflation and t...

In this episode of The Labor Market Podcast, Lucas and Luna dig into the latest median weekly earnings data — $1,204 as of early 2025 — and what it reveals about job quality, wage compression, and the divergence between average and median pay. They connect this to the current unemployment rate of 4.3 percent and the recent JOLTS spike to 7.6 million openings, questioning whether the recovery is tr...

Lucas and Luna dive into why the headline unemployment rate of 4.3% may be masking real labor market slack. They examine the decline in the labor force participation rate among prime-age men, which sits at 89.2% — still below its pre-pandemic peak of 89.8%. They also explore the surge in multiple jobholders to 8.5 million, a record high, and what it says about wage pressure. Finally, they connect...

Regional bank stress is tightening credit for small businesses, and the labor market is starting to feel it. In this episode, Lucas and Luna examine how the pullback in small business lending is showing up in hiring data, from the NFIB survey to job openings at firms under 500 employees. They discuss the implications for wage growth and the Fed's next move, referencing the latest ECI reading of 17...

Lucas and Luna dig into the latest median weekly earnings data and find a surprising divergence: wages are rising, but the distribution of who gets those raises is shifting. They explore how industry mix, hours worked, and the composition of new jobs are distorting the headline numbers. With the unemployment rate flat at 4.3% and JOLTS job openings surging to 7.6 million, the hosts explain why the...

Episode 76 of The Labor Market Podcast dives into why the Employment Cost Index (ECI) matters more than payrolls for predicting the Fed's next move. Lucas and Luna break down how the ECI's wage component rose to 177.5 in Q1 2026, while core inflation hit 3.4% in May — the highest since October 2023. They explore why the Fed is now laser-focused on total compensation costs rather than headline job...

Lucas and Luna explore how wage growth is diverging sharply across US regions in mid-2026. With the employment cost index at 177.5 and core inflation hitting 3.4 percent, they zoom in on the Mountain West versus the Rust Belt. Lucas breaks down why Nevada is seeing 6 percent annual wage gains while factory towns in Ohio and Michigan are flat. They discuss how this geographic split complicates the...

Lucas and Luna break down why the Employment Cost Index is becoming the Fed's most-watched wage gauge in mid-2026. With core inflation at 3.4 percent and job openings surging to 7.6 million, they explain how the ECI's 177.5 reading signals a slower but sticky wage environment — and why that complicates the central bank's next move. Drawing on recent data and Fed commentary, the episode offers a cl...

With job openings surging to 7.6 million in April 2026 but hires stuck and worker quits still below pre-pandemic norms, Lucas and Luna dig into the Bureau of Labor Statistics' tenure data to understand what's really happening beneath the surface. They examine why median job tenure has actually ticked up — hitting 4.3 years in January 2026 — and what that tells us about worker confidence, employer...

Lucas and Luna dig into the JOLTS quits rate and discover a surprising surge in job-to-job transitions that most headlines missed. They break down why the quits rate jumped from 2.1% to 2.4% in April 2026, what that means for wage growth, and how it connects to the Nevada job market boom. Drawing on fresh data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics and recent Fed commentary, they explain why this 'ch...

Factory job cuts in June 2026 are approaching levels not seen since the financial crisis and COVID-19. Lucas and Luna examine the sectors hardest hit—auto, machinery, metals—and what this signals for the broader labor market. They discuss how the spike in layoffs contrasts with still-rising job openings in services, and what it means for workers and policymakers. Featuring data from S&P Global and...

Lucas and Luna dive into the alarming spike in factory job cuts in June 2026, which S&P says rival financial crisis and pandemic levels. They unpack the data behind the headline—nonfarm payrolls ticking up while manufacturing sheds workers—and explore what this disconnect means for the broader labor market. They discuss structural shifts like reshoring, automation, and the impact of trade policy u...

Episode 69 of The Labor Market Podcast with Fexingo dives into Nevada's explosive job growth in 2026. With the national unemployment rate flat at 4.3%, Nevada has seen payrolls surge, driven by manufacturing, logistics, and clean energy construction. Lucas and Luna examine why the state is outpacing the Sun Belt, how the federal CHIPS Act and data center buildouts are reshaping hiring, and what ot...

In this episode of The Labor Market Podcast, Lucas and Luna explore a puzzling disconnect in the mid-2026 economy: job openings surged to 7.6 million in April, yet average hourly earnings are only up 2.4% year-over-year. They dig into why employers are posting more roles but not competing harder on pay, focusing on the composition of new hires, regional shifts, and the persistent drag from tempora...

In this episode of The Labor Market Podcast with Fexingo, Lucas and Luna dig into the Employment Cost Index (ECI) and why it's becoming the Fed's most important inflation gauge under new Chairman Kevin Warsh. With the ECI's wages component rising to 177.5 in Q1 2026 and the Fed's first meeting under Warsh now in the books, the hosts explain how this measure shapes interest rate policy. They look a...

In this episode of The Labor Market Podcast, Lucas and Luna unpack the Employment Cost Index for wages—a 177.5 reading in Q1 2026—and what it tells us about Fed policy under new Chair Kevin Warsh. They discuss why the ECI is the Fed's preferred wage gauge, how it differs from average hourly earnings, and what a 0.7 percent quarterly rise means for interest rate decisions. With the Fed's first meet...

In this episode of The Labor Market Podcast, Lucas and Luna examine how the first meeting of new Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh is already shifting wage growth dynamics. With the Employment Cost Index climbing to 177.5 and average hourly earnings reaching $37.50, the hosts discuss whether Warsh's hawkish leanings will cool the labor market or sustain current wage trends. They analyze the discon...

Job openings surged to 7.6 million in April 2026, but hiring hasn't followed — and workers aren't quitting. Lucas and Luna dig into the paradox of a labor market with more vacancies than ever but less movement than you'd expect. They explore why job churn has collapsed, what the data on quits and hires reveals, and how this 'sticky' market could reshape wage growth and economic policy. With unempl...

Lucas and Luna dig into the surprising labor market data that shows Nevada leading the nation in job creation in 2026. With the national unemployment rate stuck at 4.3% and job openings surging to 7.6 million, why is one state pulling away from the pack? They explore the mix of construction, logistics, and renewable energy investment that is reshaping the Silver State's workforce, and what that te...

After months of decline, temporary help jobs are suddenly climbing. Lucas and Luna explore the latest JOLTS data showing a 10.6% jump in temp staffing from April to May 2026, and what that signals about employer confidence. They examine whether this is a genuine hiring prelude or just seasonal noise, and compare the current temp-to-permanent conversion rate to historical averages. The episode also...

In this episode of The Labor Market Podcast, Lucas and Luna explore a surprising trend: the rise of gig work in 2026. Despite a tight labor market with unemployment at 4.3%, more workers are supplementing their incomes with side hustles. The hosts discuss how stagnant wage growth—average hourly earnings up only 2.4% year-over-year—is driving workers to seek extra income. They dive into data from a...

Episode 60 of The Labor Market Podcast examines a counterintuitive trend: the return of older workers, aged 55 and over, to the labor force. Lucas and Luna discuss how the unemployment rate for this group has dropped to 2.9 percent, while prime-age workers (25-54) have seen a slight uptick. Using the latest JOLTS data showing 7.6 million job openings, they explore whether employers are targeting o...

Lucas and Luna examine a surprising shift in the US labor market: job growth is increasingly concentrated in mid-sized cities rather than major coastal hubs. Using May 2026 data showing 159 million payrolls and rising JOLTS openings, they discuss why places like Nashville, Boise, and Columbus are outpacing New York and San Francisco. The episode explores structural factors including remote work pe...

Lucas and Luna dig into the April JOLTS report showing a surge in job openings from 6.9 million to 7.6 million — yet hires remain flat. They explore why employers are listing positions they never fill, from resume hoarding to phantom job postings. With the unemployment rate at 4.3 percent and initial jobless claims ticking up, they ask whether the labor market is overheating or just spinning its w...