The Labor Market Podcast with Fexingo: Jobs Reports, Unemployment, and Wage Growth

Lucas and Luna explore a striking disconnect in the current labor market: while headline unemployment is low at 4.2% and job openings are rising to 7.594 million, hiring is barely keeping pace and wage growth for job-stayers has nearly stalled. They drill into the split between high-skill, high-wage sectors that are booming and lower-wage service industries where workers are still recovering purch...

In June 2026, job openings rose to 7.594 million while hiring slowed. Lucas and Luna dig into the growing disconnect: why companies post roles they don't fill, how it inflates the JOLTS number, and what it means for workers. They look at specific sectors like healthcare and hospitality, where job openings are high but hires lag. Plus: the role of skills mismatch and employer caution in a low-unemp...

Hiring has slowed and the headline job numbers look soft — just 57,000 new payrolls in June 2026. But the quit rate tells a separate story. In this episode, Lucas and Luna dig into the JOLTS data to explain why workers are still leaving jobs at a healthy clip, even as employers pull back on new hires. They examine the gap between the quits rate and hiring rate, what it signals about worker confide...

In this episode of The Labor Market Podcast, Lucas and Luna dive into a striking paradox: the unemployment rate is at 4.2 percent and job openings remain elevated, yet the labor force participation rate has fallen to its lowest level in 50 years outside of the pandemic. They explore how this headline number masks a two-track story—with prime-age workers actually participating at higher rates, whil...

In this episode of The Labor Market Podcast, Lucas and Luna explore why wage growth has stalled for most workers even as the unemployment rate sits at 4.2%. They zero in on the divergence between the Employment Cost Index and average hourly earnings, using June 2026 data to show how composition shifts—like more part-time hires and a graying workforce—are masking true pay trends. The hosts discuss...

In this episode of The Labor Market Podcast, Lucas and Luna dig into a quiet but critical divergence in today's jobs data: the growing gap between wage growth for workers who switch jobs and those who stay put. With average hourly earnings up just 0.2 percent month over month in June but job openings rising to 7.6 million, the hosts explore why employers are paying a premium for new hires while le...

Lucas and Luna dive into the paradox of the May 2026 JOLTS report, where job openings ticked up to 7.59 million even as total hiring edged lower. They explore what this divergence means for workers and employers, why industries like hospitality and health care are driving the openings count, and how the data suggests a labour market that's cooling but not crumbling—with implications for wage growt...

In episode 100, Lucas and Luna tackle a subtle but crucial metric: the Employment Cost Index. While average hourly earnings get all the headlines, Lucas argues that the ECI paints a truer picture of labor costs because it accounts for benefits, bonuses, and changes in the workforce mix. Using fresh data from January 2026 — the ECI wages index hit 177.5, up from 176.23 — they explore why this measu...

In Episode 99 of The Labor Market Podcast, Lucas and Luna examine why the Employment Cost Index for wages rose to 177.5 in Q1 2026 even as median weekly earnings stagnate at $1,204. They unpack how the ECI's composition-adjusted methodology captures wage growth that headline figures miss, especially in healthcare and low-wage services. With the unemployment rate at 4.2% and payrolls adding only 57...

In Episode 98 of The Labor Market Podcast, Lucas and Luna dig into a puzzle that has been quietly building: median usual weekly earnings have barely budged since the start of 2025, even as the unemployment rate sits at 4.2 percent and headline average hourly earnings tick up. Using fresh data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics and a specific example from the retail trade sector, they explore how...

In Episode 97 of The Labor Market Podcast, Lucas and Luna dig into a quiet but alarming trend: wage growth is almost flat for the typical worker. Average hourly earnings inched up just 0.24% month over month in June 2026, and on an annualized basis, that pace is the slowest since 2021. But the headline masks a split — workers at the top of the income distribution are still seeing solid gains, whil...

The June 2026 jobs report showed just 57,000 new payrolls, yet the unemployment rate fell to 4.2 percent. How can hiring be this weak and the jobless rate still drop? Lucas and Luna dig into the data behind the paradox—and find the answer in a surge of part-time workers. They examine the jump in involuntary part-time employment, the shift in average weekly hours, and what it means for wage growth....

In this episode of The Labor Market Podcast, Lucas and Luna explore a striking divergence in wage growth across industries. While average hourly earnings rose to $37.60 in June, that headline number masks a widening gap: sectors like manufacturing and logistics are seeing 4-5% annual wage gains, while retail and hospitality wage growth has cooled to under 2.5%. Using data from the Employment Cost...

In this episode, Lucas and Luna dive into the June 2026 JOLTS data, which showed job openings rising to 7.594 million while actual hiring slowed. They explore what this growing gap means for the labor market, discussing the 'wait-and-see' hiring cycle, the impact of uncertainty on employer behavior, and why open roles don't always translate into hires. With specific reference to the latest unemplo...

In this episode of The Labor Market Podcast, Lucas and Luna explore a puzzling disconnect in the June 2026 labor market: job openings are ticking up again, hitting 7.594 million in May per the latest JOLTS data, yet total nonfarm payrolls grew by just 57,000 in June. What gives? They dig into the composition of those openings—where they're appearing (healthcare, leisure and hospitality, state and...

After the June jobs report showed only 57,000 new payrolls, many headlines screamed 'cooling.' But Lucas and Luna dig into the data to show why this number is actually solid—and why focusing on the headline misses the story. They break down the World Cup bump, the drop in the unemployment rate to 4.2 percent, and what the low labor force participation rate really means. If you've been worried abou...

June payrolls came in at just 57,000 — way below the whisper number. But Lucas and Luna dig into the data and argue that this number is actually healthier than it looks. They break down the World Cup distortion, the quits rate signal, and why the unemployment rate dropping to 4.2 percent matters more than the headline. Plus: how median weekly earnings are finally catching up for lower-wage workers...

Despite a 4.2 percent unemployment rate, the labor force participation rate has fallen to its lowest level outside the pandemic era. Lucas and Luna examine why workers are dropping out—and whether the trend reflects early retirement, discouragement, or something else. They zero in on the prime-age participation rate, which has actually ticked up, and contrast it with the overall drop driven by dem...

The labor force participation rate has fallen to its lowest level outside of the COVID-19 era, even as unemployment sits at 4.2% and payrolls grew only 57,000 in June. Lucas and Luna dig into the data behind discouraged workers: who is leaving, why, and what it means for the Fed and wage growth. They break down the gap between headline unemployment and the real availability of labor, using the lat...

Goldman Sachs estimates the men's World Cup could add 40,000 jobs to the June employment report, but that temporary boost masks underlying labor market trends. Lucas and Luna examine how a one-off event like the World Cup affects payrolls, what the ADP number suggests about hiring momentum, and why investors should look past the headline. They also discuss the broader question of seasonal adjustme...

In this episode of The Labor Market Podcast, Lucas and Luna dive into the aging workforce trend—a shift that's reshaping hiring, retention, and wage dynamics across industries. With median worker age hitting a record high and labor force participation declining among younger cohorts, they explore why older workers are staying in jobs longer, citing data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics and rece...

In this episode of The Labor Market Podcast, Lucas and Luna explore the surprising disconnect between cooling wage growth and rising job satisfaction. Using the latest Conference Board survey data and Bureau of Labor Statistics figures, they examine why workers are reporting higher levels of contentment despite slower pay increases. The hosts discuss the role of non-wage factors like flexibility,...

In Episode 85 of The Labor Market Podcast, Lucas and Luna unpack a surprising CNBC survey showing that American workers report record-high job satisfaction in mid-2026, even as wage growth decelerates and the unemployment rate holds at 4.3 percent. They connect the dots between falling quit rates, rising job tenure, and the 'stickiness' of remote and hybrid work arrangements. Using fresh JOLTS dat...

Lucas and Luna unpack a curious divergence in the June 2026 labor market: the quit rate is climbing again, yet average job tenure is also rising. Using JOLTS data and the latest weekly claims figures, they explore how the composition of quitters—high-tenure workers leaving for better roles versus low-tenure workers staying put—is reshaping the hiring landscape. Why companies are finding it harder...

In episode 83, Lucas and Luna dig into the latest employee tenure data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics. With job openings rising to 7.6 million and unemployment flat at 4.3 percent, workers are staying in their roles longer than expected. Lucas breaks down how median tenure has crept up to 4.2 years, reversing a decade-long decline, and what that means for wage growth and productivity. Luna qu...