The InvestSense Podcast

Markets moved through a defining week as three storylines, a fragile Middle East de-escalation, a softer US labour market and a renewed wobble in the AI trade, reset expectations for the second half of 2026. It also closes a financial year that, in hindsight, was almost entirely about momentum and about being on the right side of the AI trade. Get access to the graphs: www.investsense.com.au/indus...

We discuss the RBA’s reaction function and a potential Fed regime change under new Chair Kevin Warsh with Christian Baylis at Fortlake Asset Management. We like talking to Christian every few months as he manages a go anywhere absolute return strategy and so is relatively unbiased but also a subject matter expert in rate markets. The quick take: the regime change at the Federal Reserve is bond-fri...

Markets spent the week leaning into the better news from the Gulf, however Iran–Israel ceasefire is not straightforward. Get access to the graphs: www.investsense.com.au/industry-articles/oil-peace-and-the-price-of-patience   Join the InvestSense Community to receive weekly insights from our investment team: https://www.investsense.com.au/investsense-insights?utm_source=Podcast+&utm_medium=Mar...

A week that began with hope ended with a reminder that geopolitics rarely moves in a straight line. The US and Iran signed a memorandum of understanding in Switzerland on Friday, formally opening a 60-day ceasefire and lifting the naval blockade on the Strait of Hormuz. Brent crude slumped almost 7% over the week to just above US$80 a barrel, the lowest in three months, while the Dow closed at an...

The US/ Iran deal appears to change everything and risk assets responded accordingly. But Andrew Hunt warns against the temptation to declare the episode over and return to the pre-shock world of narrow, liquidity-fuelled equity gains. Oil-shock inflation is slow to appear and slow to leave. The headline has changed. The pipes have not. Join the InvestSense Community to receive weekly insights fro...

Markets endured a week of whiplash. Brent crude pushed toward US$98 a barrel as Israel and Iran exchanged fire and a US Apache helicopter was reportedly shot down near the Strait of Hormuz. Then on Friday a single Truth Social post, President Trump cancelling planned strikes and claiming a deal had been "approved by all parties”, sent Brent back well below US$90, the Nasdaq up 3.5% and ten-year Tr...

Three months into the Iran-Israel conflict, markets have stopped treating it as breaking news and started treating it as the new wallpaper. Brent oil chopped between US$94 and US$98 a barrel last week as the latest Israel-Lebanon ceasefire wobbled, Hezbollah rejected the framework, and an Iranian oil tanker was hit in the Gulf. The Strait of Hormuz remains closed. The "rolling three weeks until re...

With the financial year now in its closing weeks, this update doubles as both a wrap of the past week and a stocktake of how we have arrived here. Get access to the graphs: www.investsense.com.au/industry-articles/nasdaq-up-40-korea-up-100-and-a-software-rebound---the-year-so-far-in-review   Join the InvestSense Community to receive weekly insights from our investment team: https://www.investsense...

Markets ended the week clinging to hope. President Trump posted on Sunday that a deal with Iran would be "announced shortly", but by Monday morning negotiators were being told not to rush. Learn more:  www.investsense.com.au/industry-articles/hormuz-hikes-and-the-first-australian-crack   Join the InvestSense Community to receive weekly insights from our investment team: https://www.investsense.com...

Markets in 2026 are a study in extremes. The AI-driven euphoria has lifted a narrow cohort of winners to unimagined highs, while a long tail of former tech market darlings have halved in value. For value-disciplined investors, this divergence is the opportunity set. Our conversation with Caroline Cai of Pzena Investment Management, a global value house we hold across many portfolios, neatly captur...

Markets finished the week in a now-familiar pattern: US equities punched to fresh record highs on AI momentum, oil ground higher on Gulf supply concerns, and inflation re-accelerated across the developed world. Get access to the graphs:  www.investsense.com.au/industry-articles/us-30-year-yields-top-5-as-inflation-broadens-beyond-fuel   Join the InvestSense Community to receive weekly insights fro...

A lot has happened in a short window. Tuesday night's budget delivered the most significant tax reform package in a generation, and we have spent the last 48 hours working through what it means for adviser practice. The headline measures, replacing the 50% CGT discount with inflation indexation, a new 30% minimum CGT rate from 1 July 2027, and the limiting of negative gearing to new builds, will b...

For Australian advisers the local story is the Federal Budget. Treasurer Chalmers delivered the long-flagged property tax reform: negative gearing now restricted to investment in new builds, and the 50% capital-gains discount replaced with indexation plus a minimum 30% tax rate (also waived for new builds). The 2026-27 underlying cash deficit prints  at $31.5 billion (roughly 1% of GDP), a $45 bil...

April was an extraordinary month for risk assets. The Nasdaq surged 16.3%, the Nikkei 16.6%, and the S&P 500 10.8% — both US indices closing at fresh all-time highs on Friday. The DAX added 7.1%, the FTSE MIB 8.9%, and even the ASX managed 3.0%, although it lagged as the RBA's hawkish posture weighed on sentiment. It was the S&P 500's fifth consecutive weekly gain, carrying it above its pr...

Global equity markets have defied gravity since the Iran conflict erupted and Andrew Hunt of Hunt Economics thinks he knows why. In this week's video, Hunt argues that an estimated $300 to $400 billion per month in stealth liquidity injections is keeping risk appetite alive while the real economy deteriorates. The wave can continue a little longer, but Hunt warns at some point central banks will b...

The week that was supposed to deliver clarity on the Gulf crisis instead delivered its starkest divergence yet between US and European assets. With Brent crude surging 13% to US$108 — its highest since the conflict began — and the Strait of Hormuz still effectively closed, the transatlantic split in equity markets told a revealing story. The Nasdaq added 1.6% and the S&P 500 edged up 0.7%, buo...

The traditional defensive playbook of shifting into government bonds and credit is under serious strain. With interest rate volatility effectively doubling over March and credit spreads offering limited cushion, the usual safe havens aren't behaving like safe havens. Christian Baylis of Fortlake Asset Management explains why cash may be the only truly defensive position right now, and what alterna...

For a third consecutive week, equity markets rallied in the face of a conflict that, on the ground, has barely improved. The S&P 500 rose 4.5% to a fresh all-time high, recouping the entirety of its post-war losses, while the Nasdaq surged on the back of strong early earnings and renewed AI enthusiasm. European bourses gained but have yet to reclaim their pre-war peaks — the Euro Stoxx 50 adde...

The past week was again dominated by the Iran–US conflict, with markets riding a hope-and-disappointment cycle that began with a ceasefire announcement on 7 April and ended with the weekend's talks in Islamabad collapsing into stalemate. By Sunday, President Trump had declared a US naval counter-blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, pledging to interdict any tanker paying an "illegal toll" to Tehran —...

Global equity markets ended last week higher, but the gains mask a fair degree of intraweek volatility driven almost entirely by the evolving conflict between the United States and Iran. Get access to the graphs: www.investsense.com.au/industry-articles/iran-brinkmanship-dominates-as-markets-ride-a-rollercoaster-week   Join the InvestSense Community to receive weekly insights from our investment t...

March 2026 will be remembered as the month geopolitics seized control of global markets. The US-led military intervention in Iran, which began on 1 March, evolved over four weeks from a shock event that most investors expected to be short-lived into what the IEA has labelled the greatest energy security threat in history. It has redrawn the map for equities, bonds, currencies and commodities in wa...

The headlines are alarming. Oil shocks, stagflation talk, investment decisions being deferred. But the case for panic may be premature. The Fed, US Treasury and PBOC have injected extraordinary amounts of liquidity into the global financial system, keeping markets remarkably buoyant even as the real economy deteriorates. Economist Andrew Hunt shares where to watch for signs the signal is turning f...

It was a week that began with cautious hope and ended in something close to alarm. Global share markets sold off sharply, bond yields surged, and oil climbed relentlessly as the war between the United States, Israel and Iran escalated well beyond what most investors had been pricing in just days earlier. Learn more www.investsense.com.au/industry-articles/war-oil-and-the-spectre-of-rate-hikes-defi...

The Australian reporting season delivered more beats than misses, with miners and banks leading the way. But the more interesting story played out in software, companies reporting decent numbers only to be dragged back down by broader AI disruption fears. Tim Binsted, Head of Australian Equities shares which businesses have genuine moat friction and where the opportunities might sit as the sector...

Sixteen days into the US-Iran conflict, markets remain hostage to events in the Strait of Hormuz. Brent crude has traced a remarkable arc since the assassination of Ayatollah Khamenei on 28 February, surging from $67 to touch $120 on 9 March before settling around $101 at the time of writing. The pattern has become familiar: escalation drives oil higher, a de-escalation headline triggers a sharp r...