The Flip Side

For over three decades, the US Federal Reserve has moved towards greater transparency, introducing new ways of communicating its outlook to markets. Weeks into his tenure, Fed Chair Kevin Warsh is reversing that trend. He scrapped forward guidance and opted out of the dot plot, arguing that markets have become overly focused on interpreting Fed signals. ​In this episode of The Flip Side, Brad Rogo...

There are two sides to every story, including in markets. On The Flip Side podcast, two Barclays Research analysts offer perspectives from different angles as they debate the economic and market themes that matter most to investors and business leaders. Each month this award-winning podcast will inform your view through contrasting positions, revealing the nuances that emerge when ideas are tested...

Artificial intelligence is moving off the screen and into the real economy. For investors, that shifts the focus from software productivity to how labour, capital and markets themselves could be repriced. With machines, such as humanoid robots , increasingly taking on physical tasks, from driving and cleaning to providing healthcare, the question isn’t just how much productivity improves. It’s who...

Gasoline prices in the United States have risen to over $4 per gallon since the Iran war began in February. When combined with higher car prices, higher interest rates and rising auto loan delinquencies – not to mention other affordability concerns consumers face – might consumers change their car buying preferences?​In this episode of The Flip Side, Brad Rogoff, Global Head of Research, and Dan L...

Since 2022, AI capital investment has skyrocketed. But can AI capex reach $1 trillion by 2028, as our Equity Research analysts forecast? Labs are reporting rapid growth, and signs show AI demand spreading beyond the hyperscalers to sovereigns and non-tech enterprises. Yet practical barriers such as power supply, infrastructure timelines and the need for clear ROI could but the brakes on capex. In...

Private credit has been a powerful growth engine for alternative asset managers, with business development corporations (BDCs) playing a central role. As AI adoption accelerates and software business models come under pressure, investors are concerned with how exposed these managers are to software and other tech-enabled business models that could be disrupted. In recent weeks, investors have sold...

After more than a decade of US equity dominance, international markets made a rare comeback in 2025. Europe, Japan, Emerging Markets and the UK outperformed, the majority of global equity flows went outside the US, and investors began to revisit long‑standing assumptions around US equities exceptionalism. Was this simply a cyclical reset after years of US outperformance, or the start of a more dur...

The US consumer showed notable resilience over the holiday period, with retail sales and e-commerce activity remaining robust. Yet, beneath the surface, sentiment surveys signal caution, as consumer confidence hovers near multi-year lows. Against this backdrop, the primary question is whether strong spending can persist as households navigate inflation fatigue, policy changes, and widening economi...

The UK’s fiscal policy faced a pivotal moment as Chancellor Rachel Reeves delivered her second Autumn Budget, confronting market and political pressures. The budget builds fiscal headroom mainly through tax rises deferred until 2028, sparking debate over its credibility. Markets responded favourably, with gilt yields steady and the FTSE 250 gaining ground since. Yet sentiment remains fragile amid...

Japan’s economic policy stands at a crossroads as Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi takes office, with the legacy of Abenomics challenged by shifting market and political realities. The yen has halved against the dollar since 2012, superlong Japanese Government Bond (JGB) yields are at record highs, and demographic changes have reshaped demand for government bonds, setting the stage for a global debat...

Artificial intelligence has become the defining investment theme of the current market cycle, with capital expenditure on AI infrastructure reaching unprecedented levels. Hyperscalers have announced nearly $400 billion in capex for this year alone, and forecasts suggest annual increases of 30% in the years ahead. As investors weigh the promise of this transformative technology against the risks of...

In June, US banking regulators, led by the Federal Reserve, proposed changes to the supplementary leverage ratio (SLR), a regulatory measure used to ensure financial stability by limiting excessive leverage. Despite expectations that easing the SLR rules will unlock lending and liquidity in the US economy, concerns remain over potential risks to financial stability. While large US banks tend to ma...

Despite widespread expectations of weakening demand for oil, market fundamentals are showing signs of tightening. A slowdown in US shale production and resilient demand across emerging economies could point to a potential shift in the price of oil. When it comes to demand, elevated refining margins and unexpectedly low inventory levels suggest that actual demand may be outpacing modelled projectio...

Commercial & Industrial loans from banks are on the decline, and lending to Main Street and consumers from non-bank financial institutions (NFBIs) is on the rise. But here’s the paradox: traditional banks are fuelling this rise of NFBIs by lending capital to what were once their competitors. While this systemic shift plays out among lenders, there are questions about whether post-global financ...

US Treasury bonds are widely regarded as the “world’s risk-free asset.” However, in recent weeks, global investors have increasingly shied away from 30-year US bonds, opting for flexible, shorter-term maturities, due to a combination of growing interest rate risk, sticky inflation and economic uncertainty. As a result, 30-year interest rates are within striking distance of their highest level sinc...

Following the 2024 US election, predictions of a dollar rally were easy to come by, based on the presumption that President Trump would implement his proposed trade agenda. While Liberation Day and subsequent trade negotiations see some of those expectations realised, the dollar rally hasn’t materialised. In fact, the narrative has turned to widespread concern that the age of the “mighty dollar” i...

The course of the US economy has changed since the beginning of April, when tariffs were introduced – and subsequently paused. This, combined with reduced immigration and already waning consumer and business confidence in the face of growing economic and geopolitical uncertainty, raises the question: have these tariffs introduced the possibility of a recession in 2025?In this episode, Global Head...

AI has been a major focal point for investors as tech companies compete for an edge in the race to deliver on its promises. The hyperscalers – tech giants like Microsoft, Amazon, Alphabet and Meta – have invested heavily in developing massive data centres, spending billions to stay ahead. But could DeepSeek, the Chinese startup, force a fundamental rethink of what’s required for AI to advance? In...

Europe is the top performing region year to date in equity markets. Can this outperformance be sustained given the Stoxx 600 has underperformed compared to the S&P 500 over the last 25 years? Even backing out Big Tech from indices, European stocks are significantly discounted compared to their American peers. In episode 68 of The Flip Side, Venu Krishna, Head of US Equity Strategy & Global...

Inflation has been a critical focus for investors in recent years. US headline PCE and CPI peaked at 7.2% and 9.1% in mid-2022, but with levels coming down toward the 2% Federal Reserve target rate, is it still worth the attention? Or can investors go back to more or less ignoring inflation, as they did pre-pandemic? In Episode 67 of The Flip Side, Brad Rogoff, Global Head of Research, and Mike Po...

US President-elect Donald Trump has indicated his incoming administration will make major policy changes on everything from tariffs to taxes, all the the potential to transform the global economy. Will Trump's policies lead to sweeping economic change or will the effects be incremental? In episode 66 of The Flip Side, Brad Rogoff, Head of Research and Global Chairman of Research, Ajay Rajadhyaksha...

Interest rate cuts, reduced down-payment requirements for mortgages and media reports of the re-capitalisation of banks – are just a handful of the policy changes the Chinese government announced in its recent stimulus package to get the $18trn economy moving. Chinese financial markets have initially reacted positively, with the Shanghai Composite Index and Hong Kong Stock exchange soaring on the...

Recent volatility in global financial markets has left analysts and investors speculating whether it is being driven by technical factors or more fundamental shifts indicating a looming US recession. Inflation, rising US unemployment and heightened geopolitical tensions are considered major catalysts for the volatility. The unease in markets was exacerbated by the unwind of the yen carry trade and...

Corporate bond and loan markets have traditionally been rigid when compared to equity markets, characterised by low liquidity, low trading volumes and higher transaction costs. In recent years, the explosion of credit ETFs and the growth of private credit markets has meant all that is changing, causing what our Research analysts call the ‘equitification’ of credit. In episode 63 of The Flip Side G...

US carbon emissions are down c.20% from their peak over the past 20 years, thanks primarily to efficiency gains, such as increased miles per gallon for cars, switching to LED lights and moving towards high-efficiency boilers. Further emission reductions will require more changes from consumers on a number of fronts, such as switching from fossil fuels to  electricity for cars , home heating, and s...