The Fireweed Capital Podcast

Tech professionals face a unique challenge during earnings season: what to do with RSUs that vest right before quarterly announcements. This episode breaks down why the standard "sell immediately" advice is incomplete and provides three systematic approaches to RSU liquidation that consider your concentration risk profile, tax situation, and behavioral tendencies.

This episode provides an educational exploration of market concentration in traditional index funds and alternative indexing strategies. We examine the current concentration levels in the S&P 500, where the top ten holdings represent over 35% of the index—levels similar to the dot-com era. However, this discussion is purely educational and doesn't constitute investment advice. **Key Educa...

Episode Overview In 2026's high interest rate environment, the traditional advice to "always max your 401(k) first" deserves a closer look. With mortgage rates above 7% and the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act potentially expiring, the math between retirement contributions and mortgage paydown is much closer than most financial advisors want to admit. Key Topics Discussed The Real Math: 401(k)...

In this episode, Dr. Adam Link exposes the hidden structural changes in markets that most analysts are missing, and explains why traditional risk management isn't adequate for the current bull market environment. ## Key Topics Covered **Market Structure Changes** - Liquidity concentration effects and why the top 10 S&P 500 holdings now represent 35% of the index - How systematic instituti...

Tech professionals are uniquely vulnerable to the sunk cost fallacy in investing. The same persistence and analytical skills that make engineers successful in their careers often lead them to hold onto losing investments far longer than they should. This episode explores why your engineering mindset can work against you in the markets and provides a systematic framework for making rational exit de...

Most tech professionals unknowingly have 40-60% of their wealth concentrated in company stock, creating dangerous single point of failure. Learn the hidden math, warning signs, and seven practical diversification strategies while managing taxes.

In this episode, we challenge one of the most sacred assumptions in modern investing: that passive index funds are automatically less risky than active management. With the S&P 500 more concentrated than ever and asset class correlations breaking down, the risk-reward dynamics between passive and active investing have fundamentally shifted.## Key Topics Covered:### The Concentration Problem- T...

## Episode 8: Why Your Stock Options Could Bankrupt Your Heirs (Estate Planning for Tech Equity)Most tech professionals think they have sophisticated estate planning. They've set up trusts, bought life insurance, and worked with attorneys. But they're missing a critical piece that could bankrupt their families: tech equity doesn't follow normal estate planning rules.### The Hidden R...

The traditional 4% withdrawal rule has become gospel in FIRE communities, but it wasn't designed for tech professionals. The Trinity Study analyzed 30-year retirements from 1926-1995, not 50-year tech retirements with concentrated equity positions. Success rates drop from 95% over 30 years to ~70% over 50 years. Tech professionals face amplified sequence of returns risk, concentration risk ma...

Why Your Analytical Skills Might Be Hurting Your Investment Returns This episode explores the behavioral paradox that makes some of the smartest people in tech consistently underperform simple index funds with their personal investments. We dive into three critical cognitive biases that hit analytical minds the hardest and provide systematic solutions to overcome them. Key Topics Covered Overconfi...