The Energy Flux podcast

Energy Flux founder Seb Kennedy is joined by pod partner Victor Ponsford to discuss stalled US-Iran diplomacy, the implications of differing Hormuz reopening scenarios, natural gas price volatility, energy market manipulation, and the outlook for next winter and beyond. Seb talks through his latest Deep Dive into volatility, why hedge funds seem unable to extend their record net long bullish posit...

Energy Flux founder Seb Kennedy is joined by pod partner Victor Ponsford to discuss the latest diplomatic developments in the US-Iran war, ongoing tensions surrounding the Strait of Hormuz, and impacts on energy markets. They explore modelling scenarios from the Energy Flux Hormuz Closure LNG Supply Impact Model, which quantifies whether and when the new wave of global LNG projects might offset lo...

This emergency episode of the Energy Flux podcast discusses US President Donald Trump's decision to postpone his threat to destroy Iran's electricity system. Host Seb Kennedy takes stock of the outlook for the Middle East energy way. He weighs up the implications of a diplomatic solution versus regime change in Iran on future Middle Eastern energy supply. He explores the challenges faced in either...

This emergency episode of the Energy Flux podcast discusses the Israeli attack on Iran's South Pars natural gas field and retaliatory attacks on Qatar's LNG facilities. Energy Flux founding editor Seb Kennedy is joined by Victor Ponsford, strategic energy communications consultant, to assess the wide-ranging impacts of these unprecedented events on global gas supply and energy stability. They expl...

In this episode, Energy Flux founder Seb Kennedy is joined by special guest Victor Ponsford, an independent energy strategic communications consultant, to discuss wide-ranging impacts of US/Israeli war in Iran on global LNG and gas markets. The conversation delves into the likely duration of the Hormuz closure, and why political and military factors are conspiring to keep this strategic maritime c...

In this episode of the Energy Flux podcast, host Seb Kennedy explores the evolving landscape of energy markets, focusing on the implications of gas pricing on the energy transition. He discusses the potential for cheaper gas to impact investments in renewable energy technologies and the mindset shifts among policymakers as energy crises recede. The monologue also delves into the future of liquefie...

In this episode, ⁠Energy Flux ⁠founding editor Seb Kennedy discusses the latest developments in energy diplomacy. Chief among these is the European Union's recent decision to ban Russian LNG; the implications for EU aspirations of energy independence; and the trade-offs of relying on allies like the US and Qatar, which are using the EU's own sustainability regulations as a tool of diplomatic coerc...

In today's episode, Energy Flux founding editor Seb Kennedy runs through the paper he presented at the recent Gastech 2025 conference in Milan. The title of the paper is Mapping the Storage-Speculation Nexus: Hedge fund positioning and the TTF forward curve . The paper explores a novel methodology for identifying investment fund trading strategies on Dutch TTF, the benchmark European natural gas f...

Energy Flux founding editor Seb Kennedy tours the Gastech exhibition while reflecting on the main themes from the four-day conference. 👉 For more analysis, subscribe to the newsletter at www. EnergyFlux.news Summary In this episode of the Energy Flux podcast, host Seb Kennedy reflects on the Gastech 2025 event, discussing the rising US presence in the LNG market, the economic realities of pricing...

The Trump–Putin summit in Alaska is set to be a geopolitical circus — and in this episode of the Energy Flux podcast, I unpack what’s at stake, who stands to gain, and why parts of Europe should be paying close attention. I cover: * Why some in Moscow might be eyeing Alaska’s mineral wealth * How a land swap or ceasefire could reshape Ukraine’s future * The sanctions relief carrot Trump might dang...

The day after the European Commission proposed an outright ban on Russian gas in the EU, a Swiss court threw a lifeline to Nord Stream 2. The ruling opens the door to a potential revival of the defunct Russia-Germany gas pipeline that was half destroyed in a dramatic subsea explosion in 2022. How should we square the circle of an EU ban on Russian gas with a possible revival of Nord Stream 2? How...

The US-China trade war has rewritten the macroeconomic outlook for 2025, and with it the global demand picture for liquefied natural gas (LNG). Swingeing import tariffs could be lifted just as quickly as they were introduced. However, even a swift resolution at this stage would be unlikely to purge the bearish sentiment now dominating the European natural gas market. This episode catches up on the...

Energy markets are digesting last night’s breaking news that Russia has agreed to a 30-day temporary ceasefire in Ukraine. The ceasefire is limited to energy infrastructure only, meaning Russian forces can continue their military advancements into Ukrainian territory. I recorded this emergency episode of the podcast late last night to share some initial thoughts about what this ‘ceasefire’ means f...

This week’s episode of the Energy Flux podcast is all about the resurgence of geopolitics, rather than regulation, as the primary driving force behind EU natural gas markets. Don’t get me wrong, regulatory risk has not evaporated — far from it. After the apparent relaxation of the EU’s gas storage refilling targets , there’s lingering uncertainty around how existing regulations are being interpret...

Welcome back to the Energy Flux podcast, which delves into the world of European natural gas and global LNG markets. The big story of the week was the wild rollercoaster on Dutch TTF, the European benchmark. I dig into what caused the epic price swings, drawing on my analysis from Thursday’s subscriber-only Chart Deck . In response to a reader question, I also discussed the correlation between TTF...

Welcome back to the Energy Flux podcast, which delves into the world of European natural gas and global LNG markets. The main story featured in this week’s show is: * Italy calls for EU investigation into speculation on TTF inflating gas prices ( Montel News , QualEnergia ) In response to reader questions, I discussed: * The EU Commission’s draft plan to consider US LNG equity investments to ward...

This episode marks the relaunch of the Energy Flux podcast, by me, Energy Flux founding editor Seb Kennedy. After the overwhelmingly positive response to my recent run of podcast appearances , I realised there is huge appetite for audio format news and commentary. As I explain in this introductory episode, the concept is simple: chat through the most interesting headlines and market events of the...