The Emmi Podcast

Static hazard maps tell you where climate risks are today. They don’t tell you how fast those risks are escalating - or how differently they escalate depending on how much the world warms. That distinction is the subject of this episode. We examine why treating physical risk as a snapshot rather than a trajectory creates blind spots for anyone making long-horizon decisions about fixed assets; why...

Most climate risk models assume corporate emissions remain unchanged over time. In this episode, we examine how incorporating Science-Based Targets (SBTi) into forward-looking emissions trajectories changes projected transition risk. Drawing on new research, we discuss how more than 4,000 matched absolute targets are converted into emissions glide paths and integrated into a scenario-based risk fr...

Most transition risk analysis assumes that corporate emissions remain unchanged into the future. In this episode, we examine how replacing static baselines with probabilistic emissions forecasting changes forward-looking climate risk metrics. Drawing on the Monte Carlo Momentum (MCM) framework, we discuss how annual Scope-level emissions data from 2020 onward are used to estimate momentum and hist...

As outlined in Carbon Credits – Climate 101 , global policy momentum is rapidly converting carbon risk from an ESG talking point into a core driver of asset valuations. Emissions-trading systems now cover nearly 28% of global greenhouse-gas output, with EU, UK, China, and Australia strengthening caps, tightening baselines, and embedding carbon costs into trade and capital flows. This audio brief b...

Our latest research reveals how extreme weather events are reshaping financial markets. By analysing 45 major U.S. storms over 24 years, we uncover clear patterns of storm sensitivity, showing which industries consistently lose value when disasters strike. The findings expose material vulnerabilities and the hidden supply-chain and market-wide shocks that traditional physical-risk tools fail to ca...

Our podcast examines why today’s dominant physical climate risk tools fail to meet investor needs. Originally designed for property insurers, these models calculate building repair costs, but miss the broader business disruptions, supply chain shocks, and market ripple effects that drive enterprise value. The podcast highlights this mismatch: investors are paying premium prices for asset-level pre...

Emmi’s latest research forecasts a likely global peak in fossil CO₂ emissions, based on 24 years of data from major economies. The analysis identifies a 2027 plateau at 36.9 GtCO₂, with annual declines to 2030, and highlights structural shifts in China, the US, and the EU that are reshaping global emissions trends, carbon pricing signals, and transition risk exposure for institutional investors. T...

Speaking on Ausbiz, Dr Ben McNeil discusses his new research and market-leading methodology that has revealed that private equity markets account for 3 billion tonnes of emissions globally. He also explains why this is important for investors in managing their transition risk and meeting their reporting responsibilities. This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscr...

Our latest research uncovers the emissions footprint of private equity, an $8.2 trillion asset class largely overlooked in climate risk reporting. We show how our machine learning model outperforms traditional estimation methods by up to 7x. This enables more accurate and consistent emissions insights across unlisted assets. This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other su...

In this podcast we breakdown climate transition risk within the global corporate bond market via a new research paper from Emmi here . Covering $24 trillion of outstanding debt, we examine the impact of various climate scenarios on this debt, revealing substantial risk even under moderate Paris-aligned targets. A key finding is that "green bonds," while intended to support environmentally friendly...

Emmi's latest analysis reveals the first decline in global listed company emissions, dropping 2.5%. Speaking on Ausbiz, Dr Ben McNeil discusses this milestone shift and what it means for investors navigating the transition to a low-carbon economy. Learn more in our white paper, ‘Estimating The Corporate Carbon Footprint: A Meta-Model Machine Learning Approach’: www.emmi.io/newsroom/white-paper-nov...

Our new research suggests corporate emissions peaked in 2022. In this 10-minute AI-enhanced breakdown, we explore the machine-learning approach behind our findings, examining how we analyse emissions across 45,000 listed companies. Using Google's NotebookLM, we distil complex methodology into key technical insights about corporate decarbonisation trends and their implications for investors. This i...