The Dismal Science

Mark and Ivan discuss how bad the coronavirus crisis could get, what the impact might be on GDP and whether there is hope for flattening the curve.

Are there any positives to take from the latest GDP numbers? Is the RBA about to embark on QE? And is the property market back?

With Mark back from holidays, we catch up on the RBA's historic rate cut early this month and do a Nobel edition of the number of the week.

Special guest Jamie Smyth of the Financial Times helps Mark and Ivan make sense of the Brexit omnishambles. This episode was recorded on 4 September, the day after Boris Johnson's government lost its majority in the House of Commons and the morning of the start of the fourth Ashes test.

What the hell is an inverted yield curve and should we be worried? This episode was recorded on 22 August.

Finally, we are back! New AICD chief economist Mark Thirlwell joins Ivan to talk about why Mark fell in love with economics, the US-China trade war, whether the RBA has failed and the AICD's number of the week. This comeback episode was recorded on 8 August.

Stephen and Ivan catch up on the budget and discuss the fragile Chinese economy.

In the first episode of the year, Stephen and Ivan catch up on the 'boomy' November retail sales and the surprising midyear budget review.

In this episode, recorded in early December, Stephen and Ivan look ahead to 2018. Will the Reserve Bank continue to stay its hand? Will wages growth finally pick up? And what's the outlook for the Australian and global economies?

Stephen and Ivan talk about the 'terrible' August retail sales and the better than expected FY17 budget position.

In this catch-up episode recorded in September, Stephen and Ivan talk about June quarter GDP and the August jobs report. Then AICD policy adviser Matt McGirr comes in to explain the newly passed safe harbour reforms.

Stephen and Ivan talk inequality.

Stephen and Ivan discuss the recent spike in the Australian dollar, what it means for the RBA's growth forecasts and whether you should be buying foreign currency for that overseas holiday now.

Stephen and Ivan do a close reading of RBA governor Philip Lowe's latest speech on the labour market.

Stephen and Ivan take look at why the minutes from the RBA board's July meeting moved markets, as well as the June jobs numbers.

For this comeback episode, we catch up on the latest economic data, Ivan asks for a pay rise and we dive into the census.

In this bonus episode of The Dismal Science, Ivan interviews Jeff Gramm , hedge fund manager and author of Dear Chairman: Boardroom Battles and the Rise of Shareholder Activism . The book, which was on the AICD's summer reading list , traces the history of shareholder activism through eight famous shareholder letters and touches on many themes relevant to directors, including the relationship betw...

It's our bumper Budget episode: axes are out, taxes are in. RIP 2014.

It's Stephen's birthday and it's the budget! What a time to be the AICD Chief Economist.   Discussed in this episode: [1:01]  May RBA decision [1:14]  Copy-and-paste March decision [1:40]  April RBA decision [1:45]  April RBA minutes [2:53]  AICD Director Sentiment Index [3:35]  2H16 Director Sentiment Index [5:31]  NAB March Business Survey [6:03]  Consumer confidence still subdued [6:32]  Treasu...

This week Stephen and Ivan take credit for the Treasurer getting religion on debt and discuss inflation coming back within the Reserve Bank's target range.   Discussed in this episode: [0:42]  Treasurer's good/bad debt speech [1:00]  Stephen on infrastructure debt [2:16]  Morrison's 2016 position [3:43]  Net operating vs net cash balance [3:55]  Jim Chalmers'  Better Budgeting [5:23]  Operational...

This week Stephen and Ivan talk about making infrastructure sexy again, as well as the latest labour market data and the ongoing jobs/housing dilemma of the RBA. Discussed in this episode: [0:59] February jobs disaster [1:11] Stephen on the March jobs numbers [1:48]  Jobs report sceptics [2:35]  2014 ABS error [3:42] April RBA minutes [5:42] ANZ's job ads data [5:54] NAB business survey [7:03] Pol...

This week Stephen and Ivan talk about the regulator crackdown on interest-only loans and the AICD's Blueprint for Growth , which outlines our national reform agenda. Discussed in this episode: [0:46] APRA interest-only loan crackdown [0:57] RBA Governor's property warning [1:14] Bank executive comments [1:33] APRA's original 2014 restrictions [3:44] RBA's April interest rate decision [4:05] Counci...

On this episode of The Dismal Science, Stephen and Ivan talk Brexit and welcome their first guest, AICD Senior Policy Adviser Lysarne Pelling, who came in to discuss proposed safe harbour laws that could save companies from painful insolvencies. Discussed in this episode: [0:59] UK triggers article 50 [1:15] Stephen's reaction the day of the Brexit vote [1:35] Maastricht Treaty [2:09] >50% of UK t...

In this special episode of The Dismal Science, Stephen and Ivan discuss the housing market. Is it a bubble? Should regulators be concerned? And what can we do to make housing more affordable? Discussed in this episode: [0:48]  Avocado toast [0:57]  Housing affordability in the budget [4:49]  Australian household debt [6:29]  APRA concerns (paragraph 5) [6:55]  RBA's subtle shift on housing [9:28]...

In the second episode of the AICD's new weekly economics podcast, Stephen and Ivan discuss the 'disaster' that was the February jobs numbers, Western Australia's economy post mining boom and the AICD's number of the week.