The Dismal Science

Global supply chains are breaking down with not enough capacity to meet demand for everything from semiconductors to furniture. What is going on and will it lead to an outbreak in inflation? Plus, the IMF's plan to end the COVID-19 pandemic.

Unemployment keeps ticking down but wages still aren't moving. So is the relationship between unemployment and inflation broken? Plus, the latest confidence numbers, productivity in the care economy and BitCoin's wild ride.

This year's budget embeds the fiscal revolution that began last year. We look at what's in this big spending budget and whether the debt is sustainable. Plus, the RBA's latest forecasts and US jobs disappoint. Apologies for Ivan's awful audio this week - we had some technical difficulties recording remotely.

We parse the latest statements of the RBA and US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen for hidden meaning on the recovery of the economy. Plus, house prices, a budget preview and sin taxes.

Mark says Treasurer Frydenberg has found the new fiscal religion on debt and deficits, plus weak inflation, jobs come off as JobKeeper ends and the latest from our own Director Sentiment Index.

Digital money is hot and central bankers want in. What is a central bank digital currency, how would it work and how would it be different from cryptocurrencies? Plus, more good news on the jobs front and what the European Super League proposal says about the global economy.

The vaccine rollout troubles continue as the government abandons its target. Is it time to downgrade forecasts? Will Australia be cut off from the world? And are we getting our risk calculus wrong? Plus, the latest confidence and jobs numbers.

The Australian property market is once again off to the races. What's driving it? What, if anything, should policymakers do about it? And will Ivan ever be able to afford a nice home? Plus, more trouble for the vaccine rollout, new IMF forecasts for global recovery and Biden's plan to have multinationals pay more tax. (We are a little late getting this one out, we recorded prior to the new advice...

We take a break from regular programming this week to bring you a conversation from the Australian Governance Summit between Mark and Harvard Business School professor Rebecca Henderson on her book Reimagining Capitalism in a World on Fire.

With fears it may once again be on the rise, we talk all things inflation. What causes it? Why is it bad? And is it coming back? Plus, how much slack is left in the labour market and has the fun stopped for GameStop?

Australia is a global laggard on the vaccine rollout and is well off the pace to meet its targets. So what is the rest of the world getting right, what are we getting wrong and should we be concerned? Plus, employment gets back to pre-pandemic levels and what is a non-fungible token?

The US is about to embark on a grand fiscal experiment to run the economy hot, while in Australia Governor Philip Lowe is promising the same on the monetary side until 2024. We look at the new radical orthodoxy. Plus, the latest GDP numbers, the government attempts to save the tourism industry and the city or the bush.

Crises change economic thinking. Live from the Australian Governance Summit, we look at what economists have learned from the pandemic, plus the latest jobs numbers and is inflation coming back? We recorded this episode on 1 March.

We look at the IMF's forecasts for global growth in 2021 and its policy recommendations for recovery. Plus, confidence in Australia is up again and Bitcoin mining's effect on the planet. On a short break now till the first week of March.

We unpick the GameStop phenomenon to see what it all means. Is this the end of short-selling, the efficient markets hypothesis and shareholder capitalism as we know it? Are memes the new analysis? Or is it a lot of fun signifying nothing? Plus, the RBA's outlook for the year, the Biden stimulus and new thinking on the minimum wage.

We mark the end of the longest of years with the longest of episodes. Ivan quizzes Mark on what's in store for 2021, plus the final (excellent) jobs numbers for the year, the government releases its update on the improving economic outlook, the latest on Brexit and Mark's summer reading list. We'll be back with more episodes in late January.

Confidence numbers are up and people are feeling optimistic as we approach the end of the roughest of years. Plus, tourism post-COVID and is Facebook a monopoly?

Australia is officially out of recession but GDP is still well down year-on-year. The RBA says it's 'ready to do more if necessary'. Plus, more good news on the vaccine and what's going on with Australian coal exports to China.

Biden names former Fed Governor Janet Yellen as his nominee for Treasury Secretary. What does her appointment mean for US economic policy? Plus did JobKeeper work, super debates and Bitcoin is back.

We look at the NSW government's plans to get people 'out and about' and to abolish stamp duty. Plus, a paradoxically good jobs report and some rare good news on trade.

After a rough year, finally a week of good news: a vaccine might be around the corner and confidence is up. Plus we wrap the US election and look at the latest threats from China on trade.

Biden looks home but it's close. Did the polls get this one right or wrong? How have markets reacted? And what are the prospects now for a much needed stimulus package? Plus, the RBA wakes from its 'monetary slumber' and announces its first foray into quantitative easing. Is it now out of ammo?

We look ahead to next week's US presidential election. Is it the most significant since the depression as some commentators claim? What does it mean for the world and will Trump or Biden win? Plus, a look at the Q3 inflation data and next week's Cup day RBA meeting.

The COVID recession will leave Australia permanently poorer and its population smaller than it otherwise would have been. But are there choices we can make that will help us catch up? Plus a catch-up on the recent economic numbers after our break and the AICD's latest Director Sentiment Index.

The budget heralds a new fiscal era, according to Mark. We look at the record debt and deficit numbers, the 'heroic' forecasts and the policies the government is betting on to restore growth.