The Decisive Podcast: Insights and analysis to empower confident decision-making.

2020 was the worst year for the global economy in a long time. And the same can be said for the Chinese economy. In today's episode, we join our China economics team, Todd Lee, Yating Xu, and Lei Yi to understand how strong China's economic recovery was in late 2020, what were the key drivers, and what we can expect in the Lunar New Year of the Ox. Speakers Rajiv Biswas (Moderator), Asia-Pacific C...

One of the many fallouts from the Covid-19 pandemic is disruptions to global supply chains. As we start to restructure supply chains, our Sub Saharan Africa team digs into what this could mean for the region. At first blush, SSA seems unlikely to benefit from this diversification drive. However, under the African Continental Free Trade Agreement (AfCFTA) there will be some opportunities. Natznet T...

In today's episode, we explore the operational, security, and political challenges Latin American countries will face as they roll out their vaccine programs. Our analysts, Lindsay Newman, Ewa Oliveira da Silva, Rafael Amiel, and Johanna Marris, address the health crisis, the economic constraints and impacts, and the political and security issues that could stand in the way of both health and econ...

While bank defaults are not uncommon in Mainland China, a few recent defaults have triggered a strong response. What makes these different? Well, it's not the size of the default but rather the high-profile nature of the companies themselves that has created a stir. In today's episode, our experts from our China economics and banking risk teams, Rajiv Biswas, Angus Lam, Yating Xu, and Lei Yi, disc...

With the worst economic contraction in recent history (-1.5%) in 2020, the Asia Pacific region is poised for 5.7% y/y growth in 2021—that is, assuming we see a successful vaccine roll out and a slowing in Covid-19 cases. But, recovery is not without its bumps. 2021 promises to be a year of uncertainty and the of pace of the recovery will be differentiated across the region. Join our Chief Asia Pac...

In today's episode, our pricing and purchasing experts, John Anton, John Mothersole, and Sophie Malin discuss the continued shortages being felt across material production and labor markets due to Covid-19 lockdowns and disease progression. John Mothersole talks about the growing frustrations being felt due to consistent disruptions across mining, lumber, and more critically semiconductors which w...

We have entered 2021 with the pandemic still in full swing. While many of us held out hope for an end to the disease spread and a fast effective vaccination roll-out, its not our current reality. Gustav Ando, who runs our Life Sciences practice, provides us with answers to the questions we are all asking: What don't we know about the vaccines, what we do know about the the new new strains of the d...

In our first pricing focused podcast of 2021, John Anton talks about the very tumultuous steel market. While demand not back to pre-pandemic levels, prices are higher. And while this is not just the case for steel, it's particularly bad for steel with prices 30-50% higher than they were in August of 2020. John talks through the current state, why, and when buyers should start to feel a little reli...

Thefts, heists, blockades-sounds like an edge of your seat movie, but rather it's the realities of cargo movement across Mexico. In today's episode, join Johanna Marris and John Raines as they discuss the actual realities of supply chain complications in Mexico, the opportunities for investing wisely in Mexico, and the impact of this cargo disruption on the distribution of the Covid-19 vaccines. R...

Despite unprecedented macroeconomic declines and fears of widespread banking sector stress as COVID-19 lockdowns first went into place in early 2020, financial sectors globally held up remarkably well, but will that stay the case in 2021? Our banking risk experts, Alyssa Grzelak and Greta Butaviciute sit down with Brian Lawson to talk through the top trends to watch for in 2021. Want a bit more? R...

After a tumultuous end of 2020 what can we expect going into 2021 for commodity pricing? Our commodity experts, Michael Dall and John Anton discuss how Covid-19, markets, shortages and more will impact pricing for chemical, plastics, and metals in 2021. John Anton https://ihsmarkit.com/experts/anton-john.html Michael Dall https://ihsmarkit.com/experts/dall-michael.html

Indonesia, the biggest economy in SE Asia and had been growing at a rapid pace. However, it has been suffering terribly since the beginning of the COVID-19 pandemic and will experience a significant recession. Angus Lam and Rajiv Biswas sit down to discuss the banking sector, policies and laws put in place to support the sector and boost lending, and the possibility for mergers and consolidations...

John Anton and John Mothersole join us for another wide-ranging discussion around the global metal's markets. They start off discussing the impact of the recent US election on the aluminum and steel pricing, move to the state of the markets, fundamentals, and consumption, and even discuss disruptions and cyclones. If you need to understand metals, you don't want to miss this episode. John Anton, A...

Last week the IMF and finance ministers from the G20 made some ostensibly landmark decisions affecting the ability of developing countries to access financing and respond to the COVID-19 pandemic. Join Carla Selman, Senior Analyst for Latin America, and Dr. Theo Acheampong, Senior Analyst for sub-Saharan Africa as they discuss the implications for debt distressed countries. Chris Suckling, Princip...

Seven or so months into the global pandemic, and the ensuing economic slowdown, we are finally seeing some positive movement. While September numbers indicated another small slowing, Chris Williamson, our chief business economist, uses our nowcasting PMI data to talk about some interesting developments as the economy pushes towards a slow recovery. While, indeed, many sectors are still in decline,...

Join our capital markets specialist, Brian Lawson, as he talks about the recent developments in the sector. In today's podcast, he focuses on three key topics: whats going on in the US equity markets, the state of emerging markets, and the rapid development of ESG issuance, and the likely trends in the sector. Brian Lawson, Senior Economic and Financial Consultant, IHS Markit https://ihsmarkit.com...

Due to closures and potential job losses due to COVID-19, governments across Europe have responded with support policies to try curb the negative influences of unemployment, furloughs, and underemployment. Sophie Malin, who focuses on European wages for our pricing and purchasing team, addresses the employment schemes put in place by the UK, Germany, and France. Sophie Malin https://ihsmarkit.com/...

Rajiv Biswas, our chief Asia-Pacific economist, talks about what he expects for 2021 in the wake of a horrific downturn. He also addresses disruptions to industrial production and supply chains across the region with a deeper look at what is happening in China. Are we seeing light at the end of the tunnel? Rajiv Biswas, Asia-Pacific Chief Economist, IHS Markit https://ihsmarkit.com/experts/biswas-...

The silver market has seen some strong action lately. Join KC Chang and John Anton as they discuss what has caused the run-up price, what does that mean for the future, and where we see opportunities for buyers. John Anton, Associate Director – Pricing and Purchasing, IHS Markit https://ihsmarkit.com/experts/anton-john.html KC Chang, Senior Economist – Non Ferrous Metals, Pricing and Purchasing, I...

Since hitting bottom in April, we are now seeing an astonishing 250% increase in lumber price—an increase not being seen in other building materials like steel and other base metals. Deni Koenhemsi, a principal economist in our Pricing & Purchasing service, discusses the dramatic increase, what's driving this rebound and how long it will last. Deni Koenhemsi Principal Economist – Pricing and Purch...

Join Angus Lam, a senior economist for our Banking Risk Service as he discusses new banking policies taking hold in India. While India is poised to be a competitive player in the region, its banking sector has lagged. He provides historical context and then discusses the newest policies and how they could influence the sector going forward. Angus Lam https://ihsmarkit.com/experts/lam-angus.html

The United Kingdom will leave the European Union on 31 January 2020. A multitude of issues remain to be worked through and negotiated. With both sides distracted by the COVID-19 virus crisis, talks to determine the future UK-EU relationship have failed to make any significant progress. Join John Raines, Jan Gerhard, and Raj Badiani as they discuss the highly ambitious time frame, the impact to eco...

Join experts from both our Economics & Country Risk and Maritime & Trade teams as they provide an overview of the situation in Lebanon in the wake of the explosion. Our team walks you through the damage to the port and how many vessels have been damaged or destroyed; how much this damages Lebanon's ability to import, even if it didn't have the dollar crisis in play; and the impact to state failure...

One month after the enactment of the new USMCA trade agreement our experts look at what the agreement really means for industry, labor, and politics. A Big Deal? Or NAFTA 2? It's both! No tariffs and no quotas (with a few exceptions) is status quo, but there are a few changes that bring the agreement up-to-date and that also have an eye-raising impact around labor. Spend 20 minutes with John Raine...

IHS Markit expects India's real GDP growth for fiscal year (FY) 2020–21 (ending March 2021) will contract 6.3%, as a result of the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic. The country's strict nationwide lockdown to battle the spread of COVID-19 infections shut down most of the economy for nearly two months, and while the government has taken steps to unwind lockdown restrictions, large porti...