The Decisive Podcast: Insights and analysis to empower confident decision-making.

Often held up as the only democratic success story to come out of the Arab Spring, Tunisia has struggled through a decade of consistent unrest and poor economic growth. This all came to a head on 25 July when president, Kais Saied, activated article 80 of the Constitution thus suspending the activities of parliament and parliamentary immunity, and dismissing Prime Minister Hichem Mechichi. Our mid...

What's driving growth in manufacturing production around the globe? Our PMI economists join us to discuss what our PMI surveys are telling us in real-time about confidence, output, and supply disruption. Using the Czech Republic as a starting point, they discuss trends, delivery times, the spread of the Delta Variant, and our expectations for inflation. Paul Smith, Director, Economic Indices, IHS...

After many choppy weeks for commodity markets, the transition in pricing is finally beginning. However, the same cannot be said for the semiconductor industry. Continued tightness in supply, as well as increases in input costs, has created serious issues along the supply chain and across multiple industries. Our experts provide their thoughts on the current state of affairs, the short-term bumps,...

What began as violent protests calling for the release of former president Jacob Zuma from prison in several parts of KwaZulu-Natal province on 9 July has spiraled into significant destruction and unrest across South Africa. Join our South Africa research team as they assess how the damage to infrastructure and the consequent supply chain disruptions have altered growth prospects for the South Afr...

The Prosperity Party of Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed won 410 out of 436 seats in the Federal Parliament in an electoral process that excluded one-fifth of the country due to logistical issues, insecurity or conflict, and was boycotted by the Oromo Federalist Congress and Oromo Liberation Front. Experts from our economics and county risk teams sit down together to discuss what this means for governmen...

The US recently announced a long-awaited withdrawal despite the fact that the Taliban is making advancements in the country. Progress in many fronts seem illusive. John Raines and Asad Ali from our county risk team discuss the rise of Taliban activity in the region, why the US is going ahead with withdrawal, and what a post-civil war government could look like in the wake of fighting, discussions...

The third wave of COVID-19 is heavily impacting Southern Africa. Infection rates have risen over 20% and deaths rose 15% in recent weeks. Our Economic and County Risk experts sit down to talk through the disease progression and the lessons learned by governments regarding lockdowns, vaccine rollout, and containment issues in countries with fragile healthcare systems. Will local responses trigger p...

In today's episode, we are once again talking about an incident that is highly unlikely to happen – it's called a Realistic Disaster Scenarios (RDS). Insurance companies rely on RDS to evaluate their books of business against unlikely, but highly impactful events. Our risk experts, Carlos Caicedo and Alexia Ash share highlights from our Latin America SRCC (strikes, riots, and civil commotion) scen...

The news, and our podcasts, have been filled with stories about the dramatic rise in lumber prices – until 2 weeks ago when prices fell. Join our Pricing and Purchasing and construction industry experts as they discuss what precipitated the price drop and whether prices will soon drop to pre-pandemic levels. They also turn their attention to the housing market where materials prices, inclusive of...

Sub-Saharan Africa suffered a sharp economic contraction over the last year. Pandemic lockdowns, trade and supply Chain disruptions, and employment disruptions had a marked impact on household and business wallets. In today's episode, our SSA and PMI teams discuss the speed and magnitude of recovery across the region as countries begin to reopen despite the pandemic and slow vaccine rollouts. They...

In today's episode, we are doing something a little different- we are talking about an incident that is highly unlikely to happen – it's called a Realistic Disaster Scenarios (RDS). Insurance companies rely on RDS to evaluate their books of business against unlikely, but impactful events. Our risk experts, Kevjn Lim and Alexia Ash, share a little bit of their analysis from our RDS on Iran regional...

Commodity prices have experienced a spectacular rally since March of 2020. Are we finally seeing some weak signals that prices may be stabilizing? John Anton and John Mothersole join us again this month to talk about what they are seeing in commodity markets, the pressures on supply chains as they follow prices through the supply chain from raw materials to delivered goods, and what the price shif...

In today's episode, our Sub-Saharan team discusses the insurgency in the Cabo Delgado province (something we have been watching this year https://ihsmarkit.com/research-analysis/terrorism-mozambiques-cabo-delgado-data.html) and the longer term implications of the 'force majeure' Total declared when it cancelled its contracts with local subcontractors, withdrew all its staff, and announced at least...

On the heels of Chad announcing it wanted to participate in the IMF-G20 debt restructuring initiatives, our Africa experts sit down to talk about the future of the CEMA region – from an economic and country risk perspective. Will Chad's move spur other countries in the region in the same direction? Join us for an overview of the region, a deep dive into the monetary issues, and what lies ahead for...

Transportation issues are compounding an already troubled supply chain as demand for goods outpaces supply around the globe. This is hurting procurement on cost and inventory as "just in time delivery" is stretched to the breaking point. Experts from our procurement and transportation teams sit down to take a look at which geographies and industries have been hit the hardest and answer the questio...

With the rise of COVID-19 cases in India filling the news, our analysts take a look at what is unfolding on the ground and then provide some analysis of the economic and risk implications going forward. This country-specific podcast is part of our special series that explores COVID-19 vaccine rollout and vaccine diplomacy around the globe. Lindsay Newman, Director, Economics & Country Risk, IHS Ma...

It's a divided and disparate recovery story across the MENA region depending on each country's ability to access and provide vaccines to their citizens. Researchers from our life sciences, country risk, and economics teams come together to discuss the specific risks and challenges felt around the region. They discuss medicine access and distribution, healthcare options, the role of Russian and Chi...

Europe and the UK have experienced an uneven rollout of vaccines. In today's episode, our country risk and life science experts come together to talk about supply chain challenges, heightened protectionist moments, enhanced regulatory reviews, and even strange vaccine bedfellows as some countries turn to Russia's Sputnik vaccine to push along herd immunity. Lindsay Newman (Moderator), Director, Ec...

Lumber prices are making headlines in the United States as they are sitting at a record high. Today's episode, our lumber expert, Deni Koenhemsi, sits with John Anton from our pricing and purchasing team to talk about the pricing and availability of lumber. Some of the questions they tackle include why lumber is so expensive, if and when we may see some relief, and what the real risk is for things...

Sub-Saharan Africa is facing a dearth of vaccines and will be reliant in 2021 on external vaccine supply, particularly through pooled procurement schemes. The WHO estimates that, at best, 30-35% of Africa's 1.3 billion population could be vaccinated in 2021. This slow rollout will result in strict lock-down measures and the economic knock-on effects will be felt across the region. In this episode,...

Join our Sub-Saharan Africa team in their discussion on the debt relief efforts being offered by the IMF and the G20 to the region. Is it enough? Will it really help beyond immediate relief? Is there more the international community could be doing? These are complex questions and there are many perspectives to take into account. Our team offers a background on the issue, define the relief allocati...

Most of us discuss ECG at the corporate level, but what if we looked at the country level? Last year we launched a Sovereign ESG index to provide a quantitative picture of country-level risk – and this sits alongside our company-level analysis. In today's episode, our Latin America experts will discuss the pressure ESG regulations and expectations puts on both companies and governments. Speakers;...

With steel prices hitting record highs, and supplies being tight in many regions, our Director of Pricing & Purchasing, John Anton, sits with us to discuss the continued mismatch between demand recovery and production restarts. John discusses the impacts to construction and manufacturing with delays, deferred projects, and in many cases missed budgets. What lies ahead? Is there any good news? Join...

The Asia-Pacific region is well-placed in the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) vaccine rollout, with both India and China having sufficient domestic innovation and production capacity to be pivotal vaccine suppliers. Vaccine rollouts in most Asia-Pacific countries will likely extend into 2022 given supply constraints, logistical difficulties, the geographical spread of rural populations, and sh...

Join John Anton and Patrick Warren from our pricing and purchasing team as they talk about the increases in packaging costs in the first half of 2021. After a decrease in costs and 2019 and a flat 2020, box and board is experiencing a second price increase in 4 months. Driven mainly by increased demand from online shopping, box demand is at all-time record levels. Add in some supply side pressures...