The Commodities Economy with Fexingo: Oil, Gold, Wheat, and Raw Material Markets

Episode 29 of The Commodities Economy with Fexingo dives into the surprising rally in lumber futures while housing starts and existing home sales are falling. Lucas and Luna examine how sawmill closures, tariffs on Canadian lumber, and a shift toward renovation spending are driving prices higher. With lumber up 18% in May despite a sluggish new-home market, they break down the supply-demand mismat...

Crude oil is up roughly nine percent in a week, but heating oil markets are telling a very different story. In this episode, Lucas and Luna unpack why distillate inventories are building even as crude supplies tighten, and what that divergence says about the broader economy. They examine how the collapse in diesel demand — driven by slower trucking, a cooling housing market, and China's refining o...

The Commodity Futures Trading Commission just dropped a bombshell that has exchange stocks tumbling and commodities traders scrambling. In this episode, Lucas and Luna break down what the CFTC's proposed rules actually change—from position limits on agricultural futures to new reporting requirements for commodity index funds. They explain why this is the biggest regulatory shakeup since Dodd-Frank...

Cocoa futures have collapsed more than 40 percent from their 2025 peak, even as chocolate demand stays strong. Lucas and Luna break down the mechanics of the crash: how West African supply is rebounding, why hedge funds are unwinding record-long positions, and what it means for chocolate prices at the grocery store. They also look at the structural shift — aging trees, climate risk, and the Ivory...

Coffee prices are down nearly four percent in a week, even as the broader commodity complex is mixed. Lucas and Luna break down why arabica futures are falling: a bumper Brazilian harvest, a stronger dollar, and the quiet consolidation happening among major roasters. They walk through the math — how a 3.7 percent drop in the futures market translates to maybe thirty cents off a bag at retail, and...

Lucas and Luna break down a glaring disconnect: crude oil is holding above $90 a barrel, but energy stocks like ExxonMobil, Chevron, and ConocoPhillips have dropped 5-6% in the last week. Why? They trace the divergence to rising inflation data, the stubborn Iran ceasefire impasse, and a futures curve that's squeezing producer margins. Plus, they examine the broader commodity picture — gold near $4...

Lucas and Luna unpack the surprising divergence between crude oil and palm oil in May 2026. Crude is down 7% on the week, but palm oil has plunged even more—falling 12% in a month to a 14-month low. The hosts trace the story to a perfect storm: collapsing biodiesel mandates in Indonesia and Malaysia, a massive global edible-oil supply glut led by bumper soybean and sunflower harvests, and China's...

Oil prices just had their worst week in two years, with Brent crude falling over 8 percent despite geopolitical risk in the Middle East. Lucas and Luna break down what's really driving the selloff — and it's not the usual suspects. They look at the backwardation collapse in crude futures, the disconnect between physical barrels and paper contracts, and why the recent Iran ceasefire may have accele...

Episode 21 examines uranium's 37% rally year-to-date, driven by a structural supply deficit and the U.S. nuclear revival. Lucas and Luna break down the three specific catalysts: Kazatomprom's production shortfall, the advanced reactor pipeline, and how utility contracting has shifted from spot to term. They also answer whether this rally is different from the 2007 bubble, and why uranium mining eq...

Crude oil is down 7% in a week, while natural gas has surged nearly 14%. Lucas and Luna explore the driving forces behind this historic divergence: a massive storage deficit, LNG export demand, and a hot summer forecast. They also examine why oil is sinking despite geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, and what the breakdown in the traditional oil-to-gas correlation means for energy investors....

Oil prices are getting hammered—Brent crude down 8 percent in a week. But natural gas is surging 13 percent. Lucas and Luna unpack the disconnect: how Iran war premiums are fading for crude while gas gets its own tailwind from summer cooling demand and a tight storage situation. Plus, what the oil-gas divergence says about the broader commodity landscape as we head into June 2026. And: a listener...

Crude oil is down 8 percent in a week. Natural gas is surging. Gold is wobbling. But soybeans? They're quietly holding at 1,196 — up on the week. In this episode, Lucas and Luna unpack the soybean anomaly: why a record Brazilian harvest didn't crush prices, what Chinese demand signals are telling the market, and how the U.S. planting season and renewable diesel mandates are creating a floor under...

Lucas and Luna unpack a head-scratcher: crude oil is down 10% in a week even as U.S.-Iran tensions escalate. They trace the move to a specific supply-side story—how market participants are pricing in a ceasefire extension before President Trump signs off. The conversation touches on the divergence between Brent and WTI, why the selloff accelerated on low volume, and what the backwardation curve is...

Silver has dropped more than 3% this week alone, while gold is only down about 2.3% from recent highs. Lucas and Luna dig into why the two precious metals are diverging again in May 2026. They look at the industrial demand story — silver's dual role as a monetary metal and a manufacturing input — and how the latest sell-off in solar and electronics demand is weighing on prices. They also discuss w...

Lithium prices have collapsed more than 70 percent from their 2022 peak, even as global electric vehicle sales continue to grow. In this episode, Lucas and Luna dig into the specific supply dynamics that turned lithium from the commodity du jour into a cautionary tale about timing and overinvestment. They look at the price of lithium carbonate, spot versus contract pricing, and how the decision by...

Corn futures have dropped 1.6 percent in the last five days, continuing a broader slide that has pushed prices below $4.55 per bushel. In this episode, Lucas and Luna drill into the specific driver behind this move: collapsing ethanol demand. With the 10-year breakeven inflation rate holding at 2.40 percent and the April CPI showing a 0.6 percent month-over-month increase, the macroeconomic backdr...

Episode 13 of The Commodities Economy with Fexingo digs into the widening gap between crude oil and gold in late May 2026. With West Texas Intermediate crude down 4.5 percent in a week and Brent down 8 percent, gold holds above $4,490 an ounce. Lucas and Luna explore what drives this divergence: sticky core inflation, shifting central bank reserve strategies, and changing global risk appetite. The...

Brent crude dropped more than 9 percent in five trading days even as the U.S. conducted military strikes in Iran. Lucas and Luna unpack the paradox: why the Strait of Hormuz threat isn't moving oil prices the way it used to. They look at rising non-OPEC supply from the Americas, the shift in China's crude buying patterns, and what the options market is signaling about future volatility. If you've...

Episode 11 of The Commodities Economy examines a striking divergence: while crude oil has plunged over 10% in a week amid fading demand fears and geopolitical brinkmanship in the Strait of Hormuz, industrial metals like copper and silver are rallying. Copper jumped 3.5% in five days, silver rose nearly 2%, and gold holds above $4,500. Lucas and Luna break down the structural drivers behind this sp...

Oil has fallen more than 10 percent in a week while copper is up 3.5 percent. Lucas and Luna dig into the divergence: why industrial metals are surging on electrification demand while crude faces a glut in Asia and Europe. They discuss Jeff Currie's warning about 'tank bottoms', the role of U.S.-Iran talks, and what the copper rally says about the global energy transition. Plus, they explore wheth...

This episode digs into why wheat futures have dropped over 3% in the past week, even as grocery prices remain stubbornly high. Lucas and Luna explore the mechanics of the 2025–2026 global wheat harvest glut, Russia and Ukraine's unexpected bumper crops, and why the disconnect between commodity markets and supermarket shelves matters for your budget. They reference live data from May 24, 2026, incl...

Futures for crude oil and Brent have fallen over 10% in the last five days, and a major catalyst may be political: reports that the Trump administration is close to finalizing a deal with Iran that could reopen the Strait of Hormuz and bring Iranian oil back to global markets. Lucas and Luna break down the numbers: WTI crude at $96.60, Brent at $100.21, and the geopolitical calculus behind the sli...

Crude oil is down more than 11 percent in a week — yet diesel prices at the pump are barely budging. Lucas and Luna unpack the structural mismatch that's breaking the old gasoline-crude correlation. They examine how U.S. refinery closures, global diesel demand from data centers and mining, and the spring turnaround season have created a bottleneck that keeps fuel prices elevated even as crude slid...

Cotton futures dropped 7.5 percent in the five trading days through May 23, 2026, touching multi-month lows. Lucas and Luna unpack the reasons: a surprisingly strong U.S. planting progress report, easing demand fears from China, and the broader commodities sell-off led by crude oil. They discuss how speculator positioning amplified the move and what it means for apparel costs later this year. A fo...

Gold futures hit 4,511 on May 22, 2026, capping an extraordinary rally that has left many investors wondering if there's still room to run. Lucas and Luna dig into the specific drivers behind this move: falling real yields, central bank buying at record levels, and the breakdown of the traditional relationship between a strong dollar and gold prices. They examine the latest CFTC positioning data s...