The Commodities Economy with Fexingo: Oil, Gold, Wheat, and Raw Material Markets

In this episode of The Commodities Economy, Lucas and Luna explore a striking divergence in the commodities market as of June 2026: gold has surged to $4,348 per ounce, up 6.3% in a week, and silver has soared 9.3% to $69.85, while crude oil has tumbled over 8%. They dissect the dual drivers: a weakening U.S. dollar after a historic U.S.-Iran deal and shifting global risk sentiment. Lucas explains...

Cotton futures are up 7.6% in the past week, breaking a months-long slump. Lucas and Luna dig into the surprising driver: not just supply cuts, but a sudden uptick in global textile orders, particularly from India and Bangladesh. They explore how lower cotton prices earlier this year triggered a restocking wave, why US exports are surging, and what this means for consumer apparel prices. With cott...

Lucas and Luna break down the biggest commodity move in months as the U.S.-Iran ceasefire deal sends crude oil plunging 11% in a week while gold surges above $4,300. They focus on one overlooked dynamic: why the deal threatens to shatter OPEC+ discipline by bringing Iranian barrels back to market. With the Strait of Hormuz reopening and Tehran ramping up exports, the hosts examine whether this is...

Lucas and Luna break down the disconnect between rising geopolitical tension and falling oil prices in June 2026. Despite Israel striking Lebanon and the Iran peace deal in question, crude has dropped 3.8% in a week. They explore how demand fears, rising OPEC spare capacity, and the market's fading risk premium are driving prices lower. With Brent now at 87 dollars and WTI below 85, they ask wheth...

Soybean futures have jumped 1.6 percent in the last five days, hitting $11.32 per bushel, while corn has dropped 1.6 percent to $4.12. The divergence is tied to a massive shift in Chinese buying patterns and a Brazilian supply squeeze. Lucas and Luna break down the specific drivers: China's post-tariff pivot to US soybeans, a weather-driven production downgrade in Brazil's safrinha corn crop, and...

Episode 49 of The Commodities Economy with Fexingo unpacks the surprising rally in sugar futures. Lucas and Luna dissect how Brazil's booming ethanol demand is diverting cane from global sugar markets, pushing prices to multi-year highs even as other soft commodities soften. They examine the ethanol-sugar production arbitrage, Brazil's role as swing supplier, and what the 4.6% weekly jump in coffe...

Coffee futures have jumped over twenty-five percent in the past month, with arabica and robusta both climbing. Lucas and Luna dig into the specific driver: a severe drought in Vietnam, the world's largest robusta producer, that has slashed output and forced roasters like Nestlé and JDE Peet's to scramble for supply. The hosts explain why robusta's role as the cheap, high-caffeine base for instant...

Episode 47 of The Commodities Economy with Fexingo dives into the sharp rally in coffee futures, which have jumped more than 3 percent in a week even as broader inflation measures like the ten-year breakeven rate drift lower. Lucas and Luna explore the anatomy of coffee's price move—tight arabica inventories, weather risk in Brazil, and the peculiar disconnect between soft commodities and macroeco...

Lucas and Luna break down why crude oil is plunging — WTI down 7.5% in five days — even as global inventories remain tight. They dig into the Iran deal headline that broke the market's back, walking through the numbers on Brent, the OPEC+ response, and what it means for energy investors. They also connect the selloff to the broader inflation picture, noting how falling oil could relieve some consu...

Gold has plunged to a six-month low even as inflation expectations rise. In this episode, Lucas and Luna dissect the disconnect between bullion and breakeven rates, exploring why the classic inflation hedge is failing. They break down the role of rising real yields, dollar strength, and shifting Fed expectations, using the latest CPI and breakeven data. Lucas brings historical context from 2013's...

On June 11, 2026, with US strikes against Iran rattling global markets, Brent crude hovers at around $93 a barrel. Lucas and Luna dig into why oil prices haven't spiked as they might have in past Middle East conflicts. They examine the 5-day flatness in crude, the disconnect with gold's sharp drop, and how spare capacity and shifting trade flows are muting the war premium. Plus, why energy stocks...

Gold has tumbled more than five percent in a single week, even as the Dow drops seven hundred points on fresh geopolitical turmoil. Lucas and Luna unpack why the classic safe-haven trade failed to fire in early June 2026. They examine the role of rising real yields, a surprisingly sticky CPI print, and the liquidation cycle hitting commodity-linked ETFs. The episode also touches on what gold's bre...

Episode 42 of The Commodities Economy with Fexingo: Oil, Gold, Wheat, and Raw Material Markets. Hosts Lucas and Luna dig into the stunning divergence between gold and silver in June 2026. Gold sits at $4,228 an ounce, while silver has collapsed 5.8% in a week to $64.93. Lucas explains the industrial-demand drag from weaker manufacturing PMIs and the solar panel slowdown, while Luna points to specu...

Natural gas prices have crashed 6% in five days while crude holds above $88, widening a divergence that tells a fascinating story about this exact moment in the energy economy. Lucas breaks down the regional glut in Appalachia, the LNG export bottleneck that's trapping supply in the Permian, and why the usual winter-demand logic isn't applying this June. Luna pushes back on whether storage levels...

In episode 40 of The Commodities Economy, Lucas and Luna drill into one specific moment that shook the metals world this spring: Goldman Sachs publishing a copper short-term trading call that contradicted its own long-term supercycle thesis. Lucas walks through how the bank's analysts cited China's export surge—May shipments to the US hit a five-year high growth rate of 35%—and a sudden inventory...

Episode 39 of The Commodities Economy. Lucas and Luna break down the surprising collapse in industrial metals like copper and aluminum, even as major producers announce supply cuts. With copper futures down 2.3% in the past week to $6.33 per pound and silver plunging 7% to $68.30, the hosts explore why traditional supply-side logic isn't working in 2026. They examine the role of China's slowing ma...

Episode 38 of The Commodities Economy: Lucas and Luna explore the growing disconnect between crude oil prices and the price of refined fuels like diesel and gasoline. With Brent crude near $97 a barrel, diesel futures are surging to multi-year highs relative to crude, squeezing trucking companies and airlines. The hosts break down the role of refinery capacity constraints, low distillate inventori...

Episode 37 of The Commodities Economy breaks down the divergence between gold and silver in June 2026. While gold sits near record highs above $4,300, silver has plunged more than 8% in a week to $69.10. Lucas and Luna explore the industrial demand collapse in solar manufacturing and electronics, the role of speculative positioning on the COMEX, and why the gold-silver ratio is flashing a signal n...

Episode 36 of The Commodities Economy with Fexingo: Oil, Gold, Wheat, and Raw Material Markets. Lucas and Luna dig into why wheat futures are down 3.8% in a week even as CPI and PCE data show food prices still climbing. They trace the mismatch to record Russian harvests, a slowing global economy, and the strange shape of the grain futures curve. Along the way they touch on how the Iran conflict ha...

Episode 35 of The Commodities Economy examines the ripple effects of rising aluminum tariffs in mid-2026. Lucas and Luna explore how the 25 percent tariff on imported aluminum is disrupting supply chains from Canada to the Middle East, boosting premiums for US-produced metal while crushing margins for Midwest manufacturers. With LME aluminum prices sliding 6 percent in the past month but US physic...

Cotton futures have tumbled nearly 4% in the past week, even as global stockpiles sit near multi-year lows. Lucas and Luna unpack the disconnect: why demand fears from China's slowing textile exports are overwhelming supply concerns, how synthetic fiber competition is eating market share, and what the speculator positioning in ICE cotton futures tells us about where prices might go next. They also...

Episode 33 of The Commodities Economy with Fexingo. It's June 5, 2026, and copper — a key green metal — has dropped 4% in a week to $6.26 per pound, despite massive long-term demand projections for EVs and renewable energy. Lucas and Luna unpack the disconnect, looking at short-term demand weakness in China's property sector, rising global mine supply from new projects in Peru and the DRC, and the...

Housing starts are down, mortgage rates are elevated, and yet lumber futures have jumped 25% in the past month. Lucas and Luna unpack the paradox: it's not builders driving demand—it's a perfect storm of tariffs, mill closures, and wildfire-related supply fears in British Columbia. They walk through the specific data—lumber at 581.50 per thousand board feet, up 5% in a week—and debate whether this...

Oil prices have barely budged, but energy stocks like ExxonMobil and Chevron are rallying hard. In this episode, Lucas and Luna unpack the divergence using the latest data from June 2026. They look at the role of shareholder returns, the shift from production growth to free cash flow discipline, and why the market is rewarding companies that buy back shares over those that drill more wells. Specif...

Gold is trading near $4,500 an ounce in early June 2026, up sharply even as real yields rise and the dollar holds firm. Lucas and Luna break down the disconnect: central bank buying, de-dollarization trends, and the shifting role of gold as a reserve asset. They look at the People's Bank of China's continued accumulation, the erosion of the gold-bond correlation, and what it means for a balanced p...