The Cents of Things

Two days ago, AI was being called the “greatest money-making opportunity in human history.” Today, investor Michael Burry is warning that the market may be in denial about the AI trade ending. Same market. Just 48 hours apart. So which side should investors believe? In this episode of The Daily Read , Jeff Kikel argues that the answer starts with separating two very different questions: Is AI real...

How much money do you really need to retire? $2 million? $5 million? The problem with those numbers is simple: whose retirement are we talking about? Two people can have identical portfolios and need dramatically different amounts depending on their spending, Social Security, pensions, housing, taxes, retirement age and other income. In this episode of Retire Free , I show you a simple four-step f...

The hottest AI stock today isn’t a chip company. It’s a nuclear power company . Constellation Energy jumped roughly 12%, and that move tells us something important about where the AI boom is heading: the trade is broadening beyond the famous names. In today’s Daily Read, Jeff Kikel looks at the “picks and shovels” behind the AI gold rush. NVIDIA and AMD may design the chips, but the AI ecosystem a...

The September jobs report was BAD. Only 29,000 jobs were added. Unemployment ticked higher. And the stock market? IT RIPPED HIGHER. Welcome to a market where: GOOD NEWS = BAD NEWS BAD NEWS = GOOD NEWS And there's one reason for it: INTEREST RATES. For weeks, rising rates have been the villain bullying this market. The 10-year Treasury climbed as high as 5.26% , its highest level in years. The 30-y...

For two weeks, one thing has bullied this market: RISING INTEREST RATES. Every day, the 10-year Treasury seemed to climb—and stocks had to fight against it. This morning? THE VILLAIN FINALLY BLINKED. The Fed's preferred inflation gauge came in cooler than expected, Treasury yields finally ticked lower, and stocks responded. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq moved higher. AI stocks bounced. Nebius gained...

Are you paying more for an investment fund that isn't beating the market? In Episode 164 of The Cents of Things , Jeff Kikel and Ron Lang look at historical data showing how difficult it has been for actively managed large-cap domestic funds to outperform the S&P 500. That raises an important question for everyday investors: What are you actually getting for the fees you're paying? COT 164 But...

Check out the full article and visuals at: www.profitpilottax.com/augusta-rule-rent-home-to-your-business Can your business pay you to use your own home—and can you receive that money tax-free? Under the right circumstances, that's exactly what the Augusta Rule (IRC Section 280A(g)) can allow. In this episode of Exit Rich , Jeff Kikel explains how qualifying business owners may be able to rent the...

The stock market looks relatively quiet today. But underneath the surface? THERE'S A HUGE FIGHT GOING ON. On one side: 🤖 NVIDIA + AI NVIDIA just announced an enormous $150 BILLION stock buyback , while chip names including Applied Materials and Marvell are showing significant strength. On the other: 📈 INTEREST RATES The 10-year Treasury yield has climbed to roughly 5.26%—its highest level in yea...

The Federal Reserve raised rates. Now what? In Episode 162 of The Cents of Things , Jeff Kikel and Ron Lang look at what has historically happened to the stock market following a Fed rate increase—and why this particular cycle may be more complicated than the averages suggest. Historically, markets have often experienced some weakness immediately following an initial rate hike before recovering ov...

Your 401(k) may have a feature hiding in plain sight that could allow you to move tens of thousands of additional dollars into Roth savings each year . Check out the full article here: https://www.surehorizonretirement.com/mega-backdoor-roth-high-earners It’s called the Mega Backdoor Roth — an unfortunately complicated name for a strategy that is actually pretty straightforward once you understand...

AI's Debt Problem: What Happens When the Money Stops Flowing? The AI boom isn't just being funded by extraordinary earnings. In some corners of the industry, it's also being funded by a lot of debt . In Episode 162 of The Cents of Things , Jeff Kikel and Ron Lang examine debt-to-assets across companies participating in the AI infrastructure boom—and find a significant divide. Large, profitable tec...

Brent crude just crossed $100 a barrel . But the most important part of today's story isn't simply that oil went up. It's why oil stayed up. Some of the scariest U.S.–Iran war headlines eased overnight. The U.S. military disputed Iranian claims that two U.S. Navy ships had been hit. Normally, you'd expect some of that geopolitical risk premium to come back out of oil. Instead: OIL KEPT CLIMBING. T...

Big Earnings, Rising Fear: Is September Setting a Market Trap? The stock market remains close to record highs. The largest companies continue generating extraordinary earnings. So why are investors getting nervous? In Episode 161 of The Cents of Things , Jeff Kikel and Ron Lang examine the growing disconnect between strong corporate earnings and increasingly cautious market psychology. Ron looks a...

September has arrived—and right on cue, the stock market started the month RED . The Nasdaq fell nearly 1%, small caps were even weaker, oil climbed back toward $88, and the 10-year Treasury yield moved near 4.77%. But here's the question: Is this really the infamous “September Effect”—or are there legitimate reasons stocks fell today? In today's Exit Rich…Retire Free Daily Read , Jeff Kikel break...

For years, investors have been warned that the next recession is just around the corner. And yet, the economic data continues to tell a more complicated story. In Episode 160 of The Cents of Things , Jeff Kikel and Ron Lang examine the growing disconnect between how consumers feel about the economy and what consumers and businesses are actually doing . Corporate earnings growth has reached its hig...

he bond market just reminded investors that the Federal Reserve isn't the only force determining interest rates. After weeks of speculation about possible Fed rate cuts, long-term Treasury yields moved sharply higher. The 30-year Treasury reached 5.33%, while the 10-year approached 4.8%. In Episode 159 of The Cents of Things , Jeff Kikel and Ron Lang explain why those moves matter for stocks, mort...

Everyone was watching the geopolitical headlines today. Oil jumped toward $88 as a new threat involving Iran rattled markets. But the signal that may matter more came from a much less dramatic place: Walmart. Walmart beat profit expectations, but U.S. store sales came in softer than expected—and the stock dropped roughly 6%. Why should investors care about one retailer? Because Walmart is one of o...

Takeaways: The episode discusses significant historical events that occurred during this week, including Cleopatra's death. Ron explains the importance of the CAPE ratio in evaluating stock market valuations over time. A detailed analysis of recent economic reports reveals trends in jobs, CPI, and PPI data. We highlight the implications of the yen carry trade and its potential impact on global mar...

Today, the market gave us a fascinating lesson in investor psychology. Two weeks ago, companies could deliver spectacular earnings—and their stocks still got sold. Today, the same kind of blowout results sent some AI stocks soaring 15%–20%. Same beats. Different mood. So what changed? This morning's CPI inflation report came in where investors wanted it: cooling, in line with expectations, and wit...

The primary focus of today's discussion revolves around the current market dynamics, encapsulated in the theme "Caught between two numbers." We find ourselves navigating a landscape defined by juxtaposed economic indicators, where weak job reports suggest potential Federal Reserve rate cuts, yet persisting inflation casts a shadow of uncertainty. The episode elucidates the precarious balance betwe...

The salient point of today's discourse revolves around the perplexing phenomenon in the stock market, where companies reporting exceptional earnings are witnessing declines in their stock prices. This week has exhibited considerable volatility, with indices nearing record highs yet beginning to show signs of instability. A notable instance involves a company that achieved a remarkable 109% growth...

The salient point of our discussion today centers on the emergence of a genuine market rally, characterized by an optimistic shift driven by two significant developments: the prospect of a peace deal in the Middle East and a coordinated intervention to stabilize Japan's currency. Over the past fortnight, the market has navigated through considerable trepidation, yet recent events have catalyzed a...

The central inquiry of this podcast episode revolves around the sustainability of the recent market rally, particularly in the context of artificial intelligence (AI) advancements. We delve into the implications of last week’s substantial earnings reports from industry giants such as Microsoft and Amazon, which were primarily driven by their investments in cloud computing and AI. Despite these imp...

The salient point of this week’s analysis is the notable reversal of market rotation, characterized by a rapid shift from a broad-based investment strategy to a concentrated focus on artificial intelligence and cloud computing stocks. Throughout the week, we witnessed a dichotomy in market behavior, with early optimism surrounding financials, healthcare, and industrials giving way to a resurgence...

The principal focus of this podcast episode revolves around the recent fluctuations in the stock market, particularly emphasizing the implications of economic indicators and corporate earnings on investment strategies. I, alongside my co-host Ron, elucidate historical trends in financial markets while providing an incisive analysis of current mortgage rates and the debt levels among leading compan...