The Bayesian Conspiracy

The Bayesian Conspiracy

Society EN ↓ 349 episodes

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The Bayesian Conspiracy

Category

Society

Latest episode

Oct 11, 2026

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Episodes

182 – The Birth and Death of Sydney (Bing AI) 27.02.2023

We discuss Microsoft’s new Bing search chatbot – Sydney. It received a wave of media coverage due to erratic behavior, before being neutered by Microsoft. A dive into its behavior, human responses, and implications. Links The Birth and Death of Sydney “Sydney Is Now Immortal” Zvi’s Round-up Gwern’s comment on Bing/Sydney Astral Codex Ten post […]

181 – How To Read The News With Bounded Distrust, with Wesley Fenza 22.02.2023

We discuss Zvi’s How to Bounded Distrust with Wesley Fenza. Wes is from The Mind Killer! Other links: Bounded Distrust On Bounded Distrust The Media Very Rarely Lies + followup + 2nd followup People Will Sometimes Just Lie About You Matt Yglesia on Why You Can’t Trust The Media Discovery in lawsuit case shows FOX […]

Bayes Blast 1 – In Defense of Chatbot Romance 18.02.2023

In Defense of Chatbot Romance

Bonus preview – YIMBY follow-ups and Vulgar EA 15.02.2023

We have some follow-up questions to Brian, including how to weigh utils, how moral claims to an area can be adjudicated, crime, use of home ownership as an investment as government policy, eviction law, and more! For the full episode, subscribe at Patreon CA YIMBY main page and support pages here

180 – YIMBY in CA with Brian Hanlon 08.02.2023

We discuss the YIMBY movement in California, and how Brian Hanlon & co. got real legislative change happening. Primary Links CA YIMBY Contact Brian – Brian@CAYIMBY.org Great article on SB827 including interview with Brian The Welcoming Neighbor Network Other Links George Carlin on NIMBY CARLA is now CalHDF SF BARF Black-Eyes put on a hell […]

179 – The Plan (to align AI), with John Wentworth 25.01.2023

Worried about AGI running amok in the near future? John Wentworth thinks we can align AI. In 10-15 years. With greater than 50/50 probability. And he has a plan! We discuss The Plan, its merits, and how it has progressed over the past year. Primary Sources: The Plan The Plan – 2022 Update Also discussed: […]

178 – Out To Get You 11.01.2023

We discuss Out To Get You by Zvi. A lot of clouds get yelled at. 2:55 – Main Topic: Getting Got 1:08:48 – LW posts 1:18:55 – Thank the Patron Hey look, we have a discord! What could possibly go wrong? Our Patreon page, your support is most rational, and totally effective. Also merch! Rationality: From AI to Zombies, […]

177 – Decision Trees and Butlerian Jihads with Matt Freeman 14.12.2022

Matt Freeman gives a primer in how to uses Bayesian decision making in normal life, via decision trees. We also discuss utilitarianism, the Guild of the Rose, and recent AI advances. We are now in the early singularity. Guild of the Rose: Playlist of Decision Tree “lectures” Guild workshop page 1 Guild workshop page 2 […]

176 – Circling with Aella 30.11.2022

Aella comes on the show to tell us what the heck Circling is and why we should do it. 0:01:21 How Many Rationalists Are There? 0:04:40 Circling 1:09:42 LW Posts 1:41:35 Thank the Patron! Aella’s Blog The Patreon bit where we discuss The Murder Button Circle Anywhere Authentic Relating International Julia Galef on Bayes’ Equation […]

175 – FTX + EA, and Personal Finance 16.11.2022

David from The Mind Killer joins us. We got to talking about the FTX collapse and some of the waves it sent through the Effective Altruism community. Afterwards David helps us out with personal finance. 0:00:00 Intro 0:02:08 The Sequences Now Formatted For Zoomers 0:11:25 FTX Collapse & EA Shockwaves 0:54:20 Personal Finance 1:43:20 Thank […]

BREAKING – FTX collapse & EA shockwaves 13.11.2022

While recording the next episode we got to talking about the FTX collapse and some of the waves it sent through the Effective Altruism community. We decided to break it out into a separate segment so it can air while it’s still relevant. FTX: The $32B implosion – a good fast roundup of what the […]

174 – Jon Stewart, The Consensus Emancipator 02.11.2022

Wes and David from The Mind Killer show up for a special cross-over episode. We discuss How Stewart Made Tucker Listen to The Mind Killer 🙂 Hey look, we have a discord! What could possibly go wrong? Also merch! Rationality: From AI to Zombies, The Podcast LessWrong Sequence Posts Discussed in this Episode: none Next Episode’s Sequence […]

173 – Oh Lawd, Strong AI is Comin’ 19.10.2022

Matt Freeman returns to discuss General Artificial Intelligence timelines, and why they are short. Our primary text is: Why I think strong general AI is coming soon Other links: “Let’s think step by step” is all you need NVIDIA A100 info The Mind Killer AI suggested 40,000 new possible chemical weapons in six hours Yo […]

172 – Virtue Ethics 05.10.2022

Kerry discusses virtue ethics with us, and how one is to live. After Virtue, by Alasdair MacIntyre Pareto efficiency at Wikipedia, slightly less dense Pareto Improvement at Investopedia Our 23rd episode – Desirism with Alonzo Fyfe The 12 Virtues of Rationality I See Dead Kids 0:00:00 Intro/Main Topic 1:42:34 LW posts 2:05:53 Thank the Patron! […]

171 – All About AGP 21.09.2022

Tailcalled gives us the down low on a variation of the popularly discussed (if not that widely liked) transgender typology – autogynephilia (or AGP). Unfortunately, due to technical difficulties, Jace was only on for part of the episode and our software didn’t appreciate the confusion and dropped his audio entirely. Tailcalled’s blog:  https://surveyanon.wordpress.com/ Some speci...

170 – By George, The Rent Is Too Damn High! 07.09.2022

Eneasz drops a primer on Georgist Land Value Taxes. All increases in productivity will be capture by rising rents for as long as mankind exists, unless we find a way to prevent landlords from capturing all the benefits of rising land value. Henry George found the way to do this. Source post: Book Review: Progress […]

169 – S&E BS re AGI 24.08.2022

Steven and Eneasz discuss the latest timeline shifts regarding the advent of superhuman general intelligence. Then in the LW posts we got greatly sidetracked by politics (stupid mind-killer!). Links: Two-year update on my personal AI timelines on LessWrong Robert Wiblin on kissing your kids Lex Fridman podcast Jack Clark (AI policy guy) on AI policy […]

168 – Unions Are Governments 10.08.2022

We speak with Levi/Ferb, learning about labor law in the USA. Turns out it’s not what we thought. Links: What would a general strike look like today? Biden intervenes in railroad contract to block strike Truckers strike at Port of Oakland Taft–Hartley Act A People’s History of the United States Dr. Horrible’s Sing-Along Blog United […]

167 – Jugaad Ethics 27.07.2022

A Jugaad is like a hack that combines a new thing that doesn’t work anymore with an old thing that sorta worked, as a temporary solution. Now do it for Ethics. (note: due to technical issue, the last 3 minutes of the main topic audio quality is crappy. sorry.) The Primary Article – Jugaad Ethics […]

166 – Getting Lucky 13.07.2022

Luck is the most power force in the universe, and leaving power untapped is not very rational. Searching for Outliers How to Get Lucky Also mentioned: Feedback – It’s Probably Not Lithium The audio version of It’s Probably Not Lithium from the LessWrong Curated Podcast The entirety of the LessWrong Curated Podcast Friendship is Optimal […]

165 – DREAM: Dunbar Rules Everything Around Me 29.06.2022

Dunbar’s Number is both the cause of and downfall of Human Civilization Low-Status degrades your health Your Book Review: The Dawn Of Everything Mentioned in the follow-ups section: Lithium suspect? AIs threaten proof-of-work The Mind Killer podcast 0:00:34 Feedback 0:11:58 Main Topic pt1 Status in Dunbar Spheres 0:46:37 Main Topic pt2 The Dawn of Everything […]

164 – Pregnancy is Body Horror 15.06.2022

Katrina is back!! We talk about how pregnancy isn’t super easy, and is borderline body horror. War In The Womb Expecting Better book Pregnant Women Are Smug Racial Differences in Maternal Mortality How Pregnancy Changes the Brain, and PubMed version Clown Registry Still A Good Mom 1:32:08 LW posts 1:51:00 Thank the Patron Hey look, […]

163 – Effective Aesthetics 01.06.2022

Étienne Fortier-Dubois argues that Effective Altruism has an Aesthetics problem But first! Some extended listener feedback Nuclear War is A-OK if you’re Russian State TV Three Bodies At Mitani A Guide To Asking Robots To Design Stained Glass Windows 00:42  Abortion Clarification & Jace’s Addition 14:15  Best Purchase Ever 27:24  Main Topic: Effective Altruism’s Neglect [&#823...

162 – Roe No Mo’ 18.05.2022

Roe v Wade is going away. This sucks, but it’s not the end of the world. Polls show most Americans support allowing abortion in the first weeks, banning it in the last trimester. In state’s where it’s legal, one can have a self-managed abortion. AidAccess is available to help. Services like ipostal1 will forward mail from other […]

161 – Restoring the Kingdom of Hawai’i 04.05.2022

Not long ago, Hawai’i was a constitutional monarchy. A lot of Hawaiian residents want that restored. Travis Don Kailikea Paradea takes us through what happened, and what’s going down now. Recommended by Travis: The Legends and Myths of Hawaii The Rise and Fall of the Hawaiian Kingdom: A Pictorial History Unfamiliar Fishes Weblog of the […]

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