The Bayesian Conspiracy

The Bayesian Conspiracy

Society EN ↓ 337 episodes

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The Bayesian Conspiracy

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Society

Latest episode

Jul 1, 2026

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Episodes

185 – The Rise and Fall of Peer Review, with Adam Mastroianni 19.04.2023

We discuss The Rise and Fall of Peer Review, with Adam Mastroianni from Experimental History We also touch on The dance of the naked emperors and Ideas aren’t getting harder to find and anyone who tells you otherwise is a coward and I will fight them Other Links: Is Ice Cream… healthy? (origin) What Lies […]

Bayes Blast 11 – Exposure to Lizardman Is Lethal 15.04.2023

With Wes from The Mind Killer we discuss Exposure to Lizardman is Lethal  

Bayes Blast 10 – Shoggoth Tongues 10.04.2023

Speaking in GPT tongues with Matt MUDsim Respectful Criticism Lambda Calc? gfodor’s take Eliezer take + followup

Bayes Blast 9 – The salt in pasta water fallacy 07.04.2023

The salt in pasta water fallacy

184 – The Cultic Milieu 05.04.2023

We discuss Rationalists and the Cultic Milieu by Ozy Brennan Other Links: Doocy asking about AI doom at the White House 0:00:38 – Feedback/Thanks DC Rats! 0:01:30 – Guild of the Rose Update 0:03:36 – Rationalists and the Cultic Milieu 0:43:48 – Less Wrong Posts 1:16:01 – Thank the Patron  We now partner with The Guild of […]

Bayes Blast 8 – An AI risk argument that resonates with NYTimes readers 02.04.2023

An AI risk argument that resonates with NYTimes readers

Bayes Blast 7 – Chatbot convinces Belgian to commit suicide 29.03.2023

Probot joins to discuss Chatbot convinces Belgian to commit suicide De Standaard

Bayes Blast 6 – The Parable of the King and the Random Process 28.03.2023

Matt comes on to blast Eneasz with his LW post The Parable of the King and the Random Process  

183 – Let’s Think About Slowing Down AI 22.03.2023

Matt and Eneasz discuss Katja Grace’s Let’s think about slowing down AI Other Links Bayes Blast 1 – In Defense of Chatbot Romance The Bayesian Conspiracy 182 – The Birth and Death of Sydney (Bing AI) 0:00:45 – Guild of the Rose Update 0:01:44 – Let’s think about slowing down AI 0:37:12 – Is this all […]

Bayes Blast 5 – Importance Hacking 19.03.2023

Steven blasts Eneasz with Spencer Greenberg’s description of a huge problem in science publication. Links The short post Steven took his notes from A Clearer Thinking podcast episode where they discuss this Spencer as a guest on Two Psychologists, Four Beers

Bayes Blast 4 – The Waluigi Effect 17.03.2023

The Waluigi Effect  

Bayes Blast 3 – Dynamics Can Arise If You Nudge 14.03.2023

Duncan Sabien on dynamics [can] arise if you have people nudging in that direction (also thanks to Liam from 2 Rash 2 Unadvised podcast for intro)

Bayes Blast 2 – Logan’s Model of EA Burnout 13.03.2023

My Model Of EA Burnout

182 – The Birth and Death of Sydney (Bing AI) 27.02.2023

We discuss Microsoft’s new Bing search chatbot – Sydney. It received a wave of media coverage due to erratic behavior, before being neutered by Microsoft. A dive into its behavior, human responses, and implications. Links The Birth and Death of Sydney “Sydney Is Now Immortal” Zvi’s Round-up Gwern’s comment on Bing/Sydney Astral Codex Ten post […]

181 – How To Read The News With Bounded Distrust, with Wesley Fenza 22.02.2023

We discuss Zvi’s How to Bounded Distrust with Wesley Fenza. Wes is from The Mind Killer! Other links: Bounded Distrust On Bounded Distrust The Media Very Rarely Lies + followup + 2nd followup People Will Sometimes Just Lie About You Matt Yglesia on Why You Can’t Trust The Media Discovery in lawsuit case shows FOX […]

Bayes Blast 1 – In Defense of Chatbot Romance 18.02.2023

In Defense of Chatbot Romance

Bonus preview – YIMBY follow-ups and Vulgar EA 15.02.2023

We have some follow-up questions to Brian, including how to weigh utils, how moral claims to an area can be adjudicated, crime, use of home ownership as an investment as government policy, eviction law, and more! For the full episode, subscribe at Patreon CA YIMBY main page and support pages here

180 – YIMBY in CA with Brian Hanlon 08.02.2023

We discuss the YIMBY movement in California, and how Brian Hanlon & co. got real legislative change happening. Primary Links CA YIMBY Contact Brian – Brian@CAYIMBY.org Great article on SB827 including interview with Brian The Welcoming Neighbor Network Other Links George Carlin on NIMBY CARLA is now CalHDF SF BARF Black-Eyes put on a hell […]

179 – The Plan (to align AI), with John Wentworth 25.01.2023

Worried about AGI running amok in the near future? John Wentworth thinks we can align AI. In 10-15 years. With greater than 50/50 probability. And he has a plan! We discuss The Plan, its merits, and how it has progressed over the past year. Primary Sources: The Plan The Plan – 2022 Update Also discussed: […]

178 – Out To Get You 11.01.2023

We discuss Out To Get You by Zvi. A lot of clouds get yelled at. 2:55 – Main Topic: Getting Got 1:08:48 – LW posts 1:18:55 – Thank the Patron Hey look, we have a discord! What could possibly go wrong? Our Patreon page, your support is most rational, and totally effective. Also merch! Rationality: From AI to Zombies, […]

177 – Decision Trees and Butlerian Jihads with Matt Freeman 14.12.2022

Matt Freeman gives a primer in how to uses Bayesian decision making in normal life, via decision trees. We also discuss utilitarianism, the Guild of the Rose, and recent AI advances. We are now in the early singularity. Guild of the Rose: Playlist of Decision Tree “lectures” Guild workshop page 1 Guild workshop page 2 […]

176 – Circling with Aella 30.11.2022

Aella comes on the show to tell us what the heck Circling is and why we should do it. 0:01:21 How Many Rationalists Are There? 0:04:40 Circling 1:09:42 LW Posts 1:41:35 Thank the Patron! Aella’s Blog The Patreon bit where we discuss The Murder Button Circle Anywhere Authentic Relating International Julia Galef on Bayes’ Equation […]

175 – FTX + EA, and Personal Finance 16.11.2022

David from The Mind Killer joins us. We got to talking about the FTX collapse and some of the waves it sent through the Effective Altruism community. Afterwards David helps us out with personal finance. 0:00:00 Intro 0:02:08 The Sequences Now Formatted For Zoomers 0:11:25 FTX Collapse & EA Shockwaves 0:54:20 Personal Finance 1:43:20 Thank […]

BREAKING – FTX collapse & EA shockwaves 13.11.2022

While recording the next episode we got to talking about the FTX collapse and some of the waves it sent through the Effective Altruism community. We decided to break it out into a separate segment so it can air while it’s still relevant. FTX: The $32B implosion – a good fast roundup of what the […]

174 – Jon Stewart, The Consensus Emancipator 02.11.2022

Wes and David from The Mind Killer show up for a special cross-over episode. We discuss How Stewart Made Tucker Listen to The Mind Killer 🙂 Hey look, we have a discord! What could possibly go wrong? Also merch! Rationality: From AI to Zombies, The Podcast LessWrong Sequence Posts Discussed in this Episode: none Next Episode’s Sequence […]

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