The Bayesian Conspiracy

We open up with some pre-episode chatter that I left in, then talk for a bit about Coronavirus before moving into the scheduled topic of Malcom Gladwell’s book Talking to Strangers! UPDATE: Given the situation in Italy, we’re upping our concern. Please increase the emotional volume of the Coronavirus section by about 1.5 levels.       SSC Coronavirus Seeing The Smoke Las...

What conclusions can you draw from the fact that you’re here? The Anthropic Principle – 5 short examples Anthropics and Biased Models – “we can’t use anthropic reasoning on a single side of a model” An Anthropic Principle Fairy Tale Hanson’s “ Great Filter ” and does the Anthropic Principle affect it ? Max Tegmark’s mathematical universe...

In this episode we’re joined by Matt Freeman and Wes Fenza! Matt from The Doofcast joins us. Their next big audio project is Kingslingers , but be sure to check out We’ve Got Ward and Doofcast too! Wes writes at livingwithinreason.com and practice divorce and family law in South Jersey. As always, there’s a relevant XKCD . Is Monroe’s Law a thing yet? Also check out Matt&#8...

People you may or may not have met before discuss Radical Honesty . (One of those people also has their own podcast–however, it is Very Different From Ours ….) Stuff mentioned in the episode : Friend of the podcast Within Reason’s take (recommended read): Not-So-Radical Honesty The official (?) Radical Honesty site: Old and New Admonymous: Anonymous Admonition and Admiration Pact...

Everyone else is doing it, so why can’t we? Matt from The Doofcast joins us. His next audio project is Kingslingers You can still partake in the SSC survey ! If you’re even a casual reader, Scott is interested in your data. He will only mine it for Good. Remember THUNK? They’re a cool youtube channel ! Hey look, we have a discord ! What could possibly go wrong? Rationality: From...

This is a recording of the live stream. Due to technical incompetence on our side, we lost the original audio, but managed to recover the episode due to listener April’s diligence! Many thanks to April! Since it’s a 2nd-source recording of a Discord stream, the audio on this is bad. We apologize for how hard much of this will be to understand. Hey look, we have a discord ! What could p...

This is a recording of the live stream. Due to technical incompetence on our side, we lost the original audio, but managed to recover the episode due to listener April’s diligence! Many thanks to April! Since it’s a 2nd-source recording of a Discord stream, the audio on this is bad. We apologize for how hard much of this will be to understand. Hey look, we have a discord ! What could p...

The Live Episode is Sunday Dec 15 at 1pm Mountain time. You can listen in on Discord following this link:  https://discord.gg/zaAubxS?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss This post will update with a YouTube stream as well, once we have that ready.

Eneasz shares his reading of Whiteshift by Eric Kaufmann News story about the CFAR barricading Ted Cruz bad lip reading Hey look, we have a discord ! What could possibly go wrong? Rationality: From AI to Zombies, The Podcast … and the other podcast LessWrong posts Discussed in this Episode: none, we ran out of time, doh! Next Episode’s  Sequence Posts : Your Strength as a Rationalist I Defy...

We are joined by Discord user GSV to talk about Legal Systems Very Different From Ours The Podcast Very Different From Ours is available at SoundCloud , as well as GooglePodcasts . iTunes link coming soon. Scott Alexander’s fiction discussed: Samsara , The Study of Anglophysics ( audio ), Unsong ( audio ) This Waifu Does Not Exist Brad Pitt in Snatch Pro Se Folk Devil John Oliver on SLAPPs H...

We get to back-logged feedback. We Want MoR is now live, back at the old home of the HP:MoR Podcast! Ra, by Sam Hughes (also on Amazon ) Helpful links provided by commentor  Lorien: references on air pollution (quick and dirty search): https://www.calhealthreport.org/2018/01/31/teen-exposure-air-pollution-reduce-iq-levels-long-term/?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss https://www.alzinfo.org/articles/ai...

The Conspirators sort of continue the conversation from our last episode, after meandering around about the meaning of words/their relevance to current usage. Eventually we’ll get to the LessWrong sequence on the Human Use of Words and this confusion will hopefully dissolve.   Comic Relief: Omeleto video featuring Nick offerman Patreon supporter Welf wrote a blog post that they shared w...

Trigger warnings: Gender! Culture Wars! Opinons! Facts? (Also, some amount of tension/discomfort in this episode. Be ye warned.) Please contribute to this discussion! Please keep it non-terrible. Articles that sparked the discussion: The Disappearing Thems , Versus Them , Reducing the Spectrum to a Binary Also relevant: Hofstadter Person Purity essay, and Cis by Default Other links of note…...

Elite education institutions aren’t give us Bruce Waynes anymore, and this is a problem. Our article: The Real Problem At Yale Is Not Free Speech Also relevant: The Wayne Republican Tradition , and Against Against Billionaire Philanthropy   Hey look, we have a  discord ! Rationality: From AI to Zombies, The Podcast … and  the other podcast LessWrong posts Discussed in this Episode: Reli...

In this episode, we try to explain the Slate Star Codex post, Conflict vs Mistake. We hope we didn’t make any major mistakes, and if we did, that it won’t cause any kind of conflict. Links: – SSC: Conflict vs Mistake – Also: Highlights from the Comments on Conflict vs Mistake – Ratfic Rec: Draco Malfoy and the Practice of Rationality – Eneasz Book Rec: Whiteshif...

Jess and Phoenix tell us about Replacing Guilt . Favorites from the series: “Should” considered harmful and Confidence all the way up Another recommended book is The Courage To Be Disliked Also mentioned – Flint’s water is OK now . Hey look, we have a discord ! What could possibly go wrong? And What Lies Dreaming now has audio of the early chapters, with more coming! Ration...

In this episode our hosts come together to try and figure out if it’s worth worrying about the possibility that we’re living in a simulation, with a fun twist. We also do plenty of listener feedback. Steven mentioned Eneasz’s book . When I googled the short story Eneasz talked about “Steve Fever” (which was written by Greg Egan), the fifth result was a link to Eneasz&...

We talk about Cultural Evolution, and why it is so terrible. Links: The Secret to Our Success: SSC The Book Melting Asphalt on Prestige Versus Dominance I, Pencil (About How No One Can Make a Pencil Anymore) Caveman Sci-Fi The Mr. Rogers Documentary Hey look, we have a discord ! What could possibly go wrong? LessWrong posts Discussed in this Episode: Risk-Free Bonds Aren’t Correspondence Bias Next...

We talk with David about his question on our subreddit . There’s a lot of other comments and thoughts about the subject at that thread, which you can read here . Sorry about the lateness of this episode, just some growing pains. Related Links: Scott Alexander on the economic costs of racism Jordan Peterson 12 rules for life & maps of meaning Raymond Arnold call to action  The Pi Day HPMO...

The Conspiracy sits down with David Spearman, a long time listener and commenter who told us why we were all wrong about UBI and we figured he should tell you too. Here’s the homework problem David spoke about. The answer is at the bottom. Suppose a firm has to workers: Bob and Omega. It makes two goods: Ultraspace Drives, worth $1000 each (like I said, cost of living has gone way down) and...

We discuss Sarah Constantin’s recent post Degrees of Freedom , addressing where optimization and free-will conflict. Mentioned in this episode: The parable of The Whispering Earring The Transporter Argument Our episode about Desirism with Alonzo Fyfe Eneasz’s Classic WoW guild – The Tail End (US – Alliance – PvE, eventually raiding Sun/Mon 9-12EST) Rationality: From A...

This is not an episode of The Bayesian Conspiracy. It’s just some additional feedback and informal thoughts on abortion, particularly in the USA. If this is not a topic of interest to you, please move on. A regular episode will air at the regular time. Relevant Links: Our subreddit where people post comments is reddit.com/r/thebayesianconspiracy/ David said he based much of his email from Ab...

We dive into the Consolidated Nature of Morality Thread in a lot more detail than originally planned. We seem to get a bit off track. Stuff that came up this episode: Read Eneasz’s novel, What Lies Dreaming, online here Or preorder the ebook : The short story “The Secret Number”   Next Episode’s  Sequence Posts : Universal Fire  Universal Law Think Like Reality

This episode Jess, Eneasz, and Steven sit down to discuss… well, you tell us. We’re kind of all over the map here because things have, in the majority, been weird for us lately. We cover some random things about how America is going to shit, how to conduct yourself in public when making an effort not to spook people, and “magic” life hacks.   Stuff that came up this ep...

Eneasz has a thing for Andrew Yang He’s ex-goth Yang interview on Freakonomics Quick summary of Fosta/Sesta Archer’s dead hookers Where does Denver’s Pot Money go? Hear Steven discuss Endgame on The Doofecast! Chess-Boxing   LessWrong posts Discussed in this Episode: Priors as Mathematical Objects Lotteries: A Waste of Hope New Improved Lottery   Next Episode’s  Sequenc...