The Argentina Brief

A packed week in Argentina — political fallout, a reserves milestone, and a wave of major investments. We break it all down in about 3 minutes. 📊 In this episode: *Voters slam Milei's handling of the Adorni scandal — but his approval barely moves *Bullrich emerges as the big political winner; Santilli takes over as Chief of Staff *Economic activity contracts 1.5% in April — recovery stays une...

Argentina’s financial scoreboard had a strong June: a credit-rating upgrade, country risk near an eight-year low, a record trade surplus, and faster-than-expected reserve accumulation. But many Argentines are still living on a different clock, marked by company closures, precarious jobs, and weak consumption. In Episode 4 of The Argentina Brief, Francisco Aldaya and Daniel Politi unpack the two-sp...

A dramatic week in Argentina. Chief of Staff Manuel Adorni resigned on Saturday after more than three months under scrutiny over his unexplained wealth — becoming the fourth person to hold the post in just 2.5 years. Meanwhile, the economic data painted a mixed picture: Q1 GDP beat expectations, but unemployment ticked up. MSCI declined to reclassify Argentina, and Economy Minister Luis Caputo sec...

A landmark week for Argentina's credit story — and we break it all down in under 3 minutes. 📊 In this episode: *S&P upgrades Argentina to B- — now aligned with Fitch; country risk drops to 8-year low below 440bp *Eight corporates upgraded: YPF, Pampa Energía, TGS, Telecom Argentina, Genneia, YPF Luz, EDEMSA, Aeropuertos Argentina 2000 *May inflation at 2.1%; core breaks below 2% for the f...

The weekly Argentina Brief breaks down the biggest economic and financial news from Argentina — in under 3 minutes. This week: *Stanley Druckenmiller is back in Argentine stocks. His Duquesne Family Office picked up US$128 million in YPF — now at 20-year highs — plus Vista Energy and the MSCI Argentina ETF. Morgan Stanley, UBS, Goldman Sachs, JPMorgan, and Citi also bought Argentine equities in Q1...

Argentina’s macro data finally gave Javier Milei some breathing room in May: economic activity beat expectations, manufacturing and construction rebounded, inflation slowed, and major RIGI investment announcements kept coming. But the country underneath the numbers still looked tense. In Episode 3 of The Argentina Brief, Francisco Aldaya and Daniel Politi discuss Argentina’s hantavirus scare, cuts...

The weekly Argentina Brief breaks down the biggest economic and financial news from Argentina — in under 3 minutes. Full thread available on X: https://x.com/ArgentinaBrief/status/2055694184841933302 This week: *April inflation falls to 2.6% — the lowest April print since 2017 (excluding 2020). Core held at 2.3%, food at 1.5%. Regulated prices (+4.7%) did the heavy lifting. *Country risk dipped be...

A Fitch upgrade, a corruption scandal entering its third month, and quarterly results from Argentina's two largest companies by market cap — with very different outcomes. FULL THREAD AVAILABLE ON X! https://x.com/ArgentinaBrief/status/2053545311293919531 This week: Economy Minister Luis Caputo shifts his tone on tapping international debt markets. Fitch raises Argentina from CCC+ to B-minus, w...

Argentina’s recovery under Javier Milei is hitting new headwinds. The macro story still points to stabilization, but the data is getting messier: activity contracted in February, wages are still lagging inflation, and declining tax revenues are raising fresh questions about the sustainability of the budget surplus. Francisco Aldaya and Daniel Politi look at whether the economy has stalled and why...

Full thread on X: [https://x.com/ArgentinaBrief/status/2050714621095387519] -Government confidence index hits lowest level since September, dropping 12.1% in April to 2.02 points — equivalent to Milei mustering roughly 40% of the vote if elections were held today. -Bondholders increasingly focused on post-Milei risk, with October 2028 bonds trading 360 basis points above 2027 paper as the market p...

Argentina's Congress passed a sweeping reform to the glacier protection law, handing provincial governors the power to greenlight mining on previously protected formations — potentially unlocking up to $28 billion in copper investment from BHP and Glencore. The central bank logged its second-largest single-day dollar purchase since Milei took office, extending a 64-session buying streak. And Morga...

A packed week for Argentina — geopolitics, economics, and legal drama all at once. We start with an unusual story: leaked Russian intelligence documents allege a coordinated campaign to destabilize the Milei government throughout 2024, spending over $600,000 on real and fabricated content. The revelations come as Argentina's geopolitical alignment gets even sharper — with the expulsion of Iran...

Two years into Javier Milei’s presidency, Argentina is at a turning point. The economy is stabilising but unevenly, and the mood around his government is beginning to shift. In the debut episode of The Argentina Brief, Francisco Aldaya and Daniel Politi unpack a K-shaped recovery: which sectors are booming, who’s being left behind, and what that divide means for the country’s future. We also take...