The Algebris Podcast

Financial credit differs from corporate credit because banks operate through layered capital structures, constantly reassessing borrower risk and holding capital against potential losses; Within that structure, AT1s sit just above equity, offering higher yield. European banks are now fundamentally stronger than in past cycles, supported by tighter regulation, stress testing, improved profitability...

China is advancing at exceptional speed in AI, robotics, biotech, green transition, electric vehicles, and other key innovation sectors. Its cost advantage versus the US is enormous, while performance remains highly competitive. The main drag on the economy has been the long adjustment after the property bubble burst, which has weighed on local consumption. However, over the next two to three year...

The key variable for markets is the duration of the conflict between the US, Israel and Iran. A short conflict would likely result in only temporary oil price volatility, allowing markets to return to previous levels. However, a prolonged disruption could impact the Gulf region, which represents roughly 20% of global oil supply, potentially creating a physical deficit and triggering stagflation th...

The central macro message from the 2026 World Economic Forum in Davos is that the US may be moving away from the post-war order, forcing other nations to reinvest in defence and economic resilience. Global growth remains strong, supported by large fiscal deficits, but that also keeps the door open to a resurgence of inflation. AI-led capex is significant and may be outpacing the realistic revenue...

Over the last few months the global economy has held up thanks to strong U.S. fiscal stimulus and widespread deficits elsewhere, but for the first time public debt worldwide is around 100% of global GDP, reducing governments’ room to respond to future shocks. Nearly all asset classes look expensive and U.S. rate cuts are already priced in; moreover, Washington appears to be overstimulating the eco...

Markets have adapted to a new, less orthodox economic order, supported by expansionary fiscal policies and more accommodative central banks. Artificial intelligence is seen as the main driver of growth, although for now its impact remains more perceived than real. On the geopolitical front, the Middle East appears more stable, while challenges between the United States, Russia and China remain unr...

A single query on ChatGPT can consume up to 10 times the energy of a traditional search, highlighting the urgent need to address infrastructural and environmental challenges. Datacentres currently account for around 2% of global energy demand, with estimates pointing to further growth. Key issues to be addressed include shortages in the electricity grid, physical space and adequate cooling systems...

The United States is facing growing uncertainty due to rising tariffs and a projected $10 trillion in debt issuance, which is pressuring markets and weakening confidence in the dollar. Investors are increasingly hedging as they doubt the administration’s commitment to stable, growth-oriented policies.  In contrast, Europe is experiencing a revival, led by Germany's industrial policy shift that is...

On 2 April, Trump announced a new set of “reciprocal” tariffs to strengthen the US economy, signalling a significant shift in global economic policy. What happens now? Davide Serra, Founder and CEO of Algebris Investments, explains what tariffs really mean for investors around the world and what to expect from the Fed and the markets in the upcoming months.

The Trump 2 administration has shifted the focus from Wall Street to Main Street, with active tax policies and tariffs to protect domestic industry, while increasing uncertainty and risks. Markets are in correction territory and growth is showing signs of slowing, with data calling for caution and increasing uncertainty.  Markets have reacted with the underperformance of US equity and reallocation...

With obesity rates soaring and GLP-1 weight-loss drugs revolutionising the pharmaceutical space, what does this mean for investors? How are traditional food companies adapting to a world where consumers are prioritizing health over convenience? Silvia Merler (Head of ESG & Policy Research), Simone Ragazzi (Global Equity Portfolio Manager), and Iacopo Esposito (Analyst) join us to break down th...

"You wouldn't be doing your fiduciary duty as an investor if you decided to ignore the financial sector altogether because you are afraid of what’s happened in the past. It has really turned a new leaf; it is completely different—it's a totally compelling, different investment case." Listen to our latest podcast with  Benjie Creelan Sandford (Financial Equity Analyst), Bruno Duarte (Financial Cred...

Women are more likely to have lower incomes compared to men, a disparity rooted in systemic inequalities in the labor market and societal roles. Lower incomes over the life cycle and interrupted career trajectories have profound consequences on women’s financial security, especially in old age as the income gap directly translates into a pension gap.  One way to empower women towards the late stag...

In 2024, the markets tried to guess what the world would look like after the big rate hikes of 2022-23. In April there was talk of ‘higher for longer’. Growth held, inflation held, and central banks were cautious. In August, the US labour market showed signs of weakening and the markets called for cuts.  The focus of central banks has therefore shifted from inflation to growth. While the Fed faces...

In Europe the economy is slowing, the ECB is behind the curve and will need to cut rates; meanwhile, the US economy is growing faster and deficit won't come down anytime soon. Also, a look at the economy in Japan and China. After a month of meetings with entrepreneurs and bankers around the world, listen to Davide Serra (Founder and CEO, Algebris Investments) on the latest developments in global m...

In their latest  Clean Alpha | Not just another brick in the wall report, the global equity team at Algebris explains the benefits of advanced technology in building construction and renovation, and the investment opportunities in the sector. Future buildings will be structures that minimise their environmental impact and enhance the health and wellbeing of their occupants. They will use less ener...

Over the recent days, global markets have been in turmoil, with the Japanese stock market taking the hardest hit on Monday, followed however by a significant rebound on Tuesday. What happened and what does it mean for investors?  Listen to Davide Serra, Founder and CEO of Algebris Investments, on the movements that took place in the markets, Asia and global economy.

In their latest report Clean Alpha | Seeds of change: from the plough to the cloud, the global equity team at Algebris explains how agriculture is fundamental to the survival and prosperity of the human species. When we think of agriculture, we probably have in mind farmers with a tractor and a plough. In reality, there is a very different kind of agriculture, namely precision agriculture, which p...

In the latest update from Davide Serra (Algebris Investments, Founder and CEO) following his recent trip to Asia, we hear about the global economic views of CEOs and policy makers in the region: covering the recovery in China, the region's strong focus on the US dollar and the role of a risk averse European economy.

How did the events of 2023 impact global financials? What do interest rate expectations mean for banks? And how are banks faring in early 2024? In this podcast, Douglas Branson, Head of Business Development at Algebris and Benjie Creelan Sandford, Equity analyst at Algebris, discuss the banking sector and outline the opportunities in financial equities.

The US is running a 'hot' economy, Japan is showing signs of growth, Europe is stagnating and China is facing structural problems. Against this backdrop of positive growth and recovering volumes, especially from a credit perspective, we expect rates to remain at 3-4% in the US and 2-3% in Europe: the financial sector could offer interesting returns, with stocks offering attractive dividends. Also...

In our report Clean Alpha | Don't waste the opportunity , we reference the Disney movie Wall-E, the children's tale about the last robot on Earth, forced to clean up and sort out the endless mountains of waste abandoned by mankind. As investors, we see this sector as a relevant long-term opportunity. Listen to the latest podcast with with Silvia Merler (Head of ESG & Policy Research, Algebris...

In out latest Algebris Bullet , we say that the pricing for 2024 has shifted from no landing and potential credit stress to a comforting soft landing, a scenario where central banks cut despite healthy growth. Markets decided we now live in a land of doves. Listen to our latest podcast with Gabriele Foà (Global Credit Portfolio Manager, Algebris Investments) and Douglas Branson (Head of Business D...

Over the past few days at the World Economic Forum in Davos, one of the most discussed topics has been the US presidential election and its effects on the market: a potential victory for Donald Trump could have an unclear medium-term impact on geopolitics and barriers for the global economy. Another focus was the Ukraine-Russia conflict, with the Ukrainian front increasingly weakened and more tens...