The AI Supercycle

Episode 5: The Orbital Compute Thesis: Trading Terrestrial Constraints for Orbital Ones Space does not bypass constraints. It trades them. After three episodes documenting the terrestrial binding constraints on the AI Supercycle, memory, power, and critical materials, this episode reaches the top of the AI Continuum and examines what happens when serious capital proposes moving compute off the pla...

Over the past two episodes we've explored the first two binding constraints shaping the AI Industrial Economy: high-bandwidth memory and delivered power. This week we move further down the supply chain. To the ground itself. The AI revolution doesn't begin inside a data centre. It begins in copper mines, uranium deposits, rare earth refineries and the global supply chains that underpin every trans...

Episode 3: The Power Constraint: When Demand Meets Reality This week on The AI Supercycle, we move from high-bandwidth memory to the second major bottleneck shaping the AI industrial economy: delivered power. Generating electricity is not enough. The real constraint is getting reliable power to AI factories at the right voltage, in sufficient quantity, and on a timescale that can support hyperscal...

Episode 2: The Memory Constraint: Why HBM Has Become AI's New Oil Oil Semiconductor Bifurcation, Strategic Partnerships and the Fifth Binding Constraint This week Nvidia locked up future memory supply through a multi-year strategic partnership with SK Hynix, while Alphabet reportedly ordered more than three million TPUs from Intel Foundry, signalling that hyperscalers are diversifying fabrication...

Episode 1:   The Physical Constraints Behind the AI Supercycle The AI supercycle is not a single technology trade. It is a multi-year capital allocation event, and the physical infrastructure behind it is being repriced across semiconductors, data centres, power systems, critical materials and macro conditions simultaneously. In this opening episode, Tim Hardwick introduces the central thesis behi...