The 10-Minute Take

In April, the Bank of Canada shifted its estimate for neutral rate up 25 basis points- a reflection that the 'normal' of interest rates in the post-pandemic era is likely higher than the decade before. What exactly are ‘neutral’ rates and how did the Bank know to adjust them higher? After many decades of neutral rates moving lower, why is the pendulum swinging back? On this episode of the 10-Minut...

In early 2024, the disparity in economic performance among advanced economies has grown more apparent. Increasingly, we are seeing the Canadian economy underperforming, especially comparing to strong conditions in the U.S.. Not so optimistic, however, are the U.S. inflation numbers that are once again gathering heat. This has prompted considerations that the Federal Reserve will need to keep rates...

Housing affordability has become a generational concern in Canada and recently took centre-stage in the Federal Budget. At today’s prices, two-thirds of Canadian households cannot afford to purchase a detached home based on earned-income alone. How did we get here? And how can we improve access to home ownership? On this week’s episode of the 10-Minute Take we are joined by special guest, RBC’s As...

Two weeks ago, Canada’s Minister of Immigration announced plans to limit the scope of international migration in Canada over the coming years. The announcement detailed early plans to reduce the share of temporary residents (mostly study and work permit holders) in the population to 5% over the next three years. In order for that target to be reached, the number of temporary residents will need to...

Canadian renters are more squeezed than ever before! Renters are allocating a greater share of their take-home pay to housing than homeowners at the same time that costs for other essentials (and interest on debt) have risen. This has resulted in renters as a collective spending more than they earn. Down-payment requirements are mounting relative to take-home pay, making it exceptionally difficult...

Generative AI is still a relatively new technology- to-date, just over 9% of Canadian businesses have adopted it. But among Canadians who use generative AI, the vast majority say it improves their work. Canada has been long plagued by slowing productivity growth, which is essential for raising Canadians’ standard of living. Will generative AI be the silver bullet solution to Canada’s productivity...

Over the past few years, Canada’s population growth has eclipsed the global average. International students accounted for about 20% of the recent population surge. The immense growth has ignited concerns about housing availability and affordability. On this episode of the 10-Minute Take, we welcome back RBC Economist Rachel Battaglia, who will unpack the new federal policy and explain whether it w...

In 2023, Canadian households faced higher debt-servicing costs on mortgages and consumer credit as well as higher rents. Canadians had to tighten their belts and in many cases, forgo savings. Will 2024 look different? What will drive the slow rebound in the back half of the year? Join RBC Economists Claire Fan and Carrie Freestone as they unpack consumer trends and explain why the back half of thi...

Just a couple of weeks into the new year and the economic landscape is full of surprises. Data on Canadian inflation again showed just how "sticky" domestic price pressures can be. Globally, supply chains are again being challenged, with attacks in the Red Sea disrupting container shipments. And finally, Canadian labour markets have been slowing for months. But unlike prior downturns, layoffs have...

It’s a new year and the Bank of Canada (BoC)'s overnight rate is currently sitting at its highest level in over two decades. Canadians facing higher borrowing costs are eager to see the BoC come to the rescue by changing course with interest rate cuts. But is the economic data soft enough for the BoC to pivot? On this episode of the 10-Minute Take, RBC economists Carrie Freestone and Claire Fan un...

The Canadian economy has seen some pivotal shifts in 2023. The year started off with inflation at multi-decade highs, widespread labour shortages, and exceptionally strong consumer spending. The economy was very obviously overheating, and “recession” was more of a buzzword than a reality. Fast-forward to December and the macro data is looking considerably softer, in-line with a mild recession. Joi...

Many indicators these days are pointing to deteriorations in labour market conditions in Canada. Job vacancies are down, job searching time have lengthened. The unemployment rate is still low but has increased by 0.7% over the span of 6 months. Clouding the outlook for the Canadian jobs market is also the slowdown in consumer demand, especially for discretionary services industries where staffing...

This past decade, Canada's population growth outpaced India, China, and South and Central America, surpassing the global average. In recent years, Canada's soaring population growth has been entirely fueled by immigration. Canada relies heavily on newcomers to fill jobs left vacant by retiring Baby Boomers. But rising need for housing is adding to pre-existing housing affordability concerns. In th...

High inflation and even higher interest rates are turning up the heat for Canadians, making it increasingly challenging for consumers and businesses to pay off existing debt, to spend or to invest. Indeed, the latest Bank of Canada surveys revealed that almost 60% of consumers had to cut spending in Q3 as they contended with elevated prices and debt-servicing expenses. Echoing that was a slowing i...

U.S GDP growth continues to soar while activity cools off in Canada. Canadians have tightened their belts, prioritizing the purchase of essentials over discretionary goods. In the U.S., consumers are still spending at a record pace and momentum has yet to fade. But will the U.S. continue to outperform Canada? We don’t think so! Tune in to this week’s episode of the 10-Minute Take as RBC economists...

High inflation has prompted many workers to push for wage increases, and unions are responding by pressuring employers to pony up. Canada has witnessed a drastic surge in labour stoppages- or strikes- in recent months. There’s still a gap to close - wage increases for unionized workers since early 2020 lag those of non-unionized workers by about 7%. But will this mean sustained pressure on wage gr...

While Americans are still spending, Canadians are tightening their belts. And the U.S. economy continues to surge while Canada's shows early signs of weakness. Why? Debt levels and faster refinancing! In this episode of the 10-Minute Take, RBC economists Claire Fan and Carrie Freestone explain how debt impacts Canadian consumer behaviour, which age cohorts are most impacted--and just how worried w...

Western countries are still grappling with decade-high interest rates and elevated inflation. But in China, prices fell on a year over year basis in July. And amid softer consumer demand and a wobbly real estate market, the Chinese central bank has taken the opposite measure to its Western counterparts: cutting key lending rates. Just how bad could things get in China? In this episode of the 10-Mi...

Western central banks don't want to push interest rates higher…but they will if they need to. So how effective have rate hikes actually been? The latest data offers conflicting signals: unemployment is up but inflation remains above target—and consumer spending is still strong. In this episode, RBC economists Claire Fan and Carrie Freestone examine this burning question, assess the likelihood of a...

If you have a four-legged friend at home, that makes you part of the pet economy! Today the global pet industry stands at over $250 billion USD and is over twice the size of the global film industry. Part of the boom can be traced back to the pandemic, when households’ time spent at home rose substantially, along with their need for companionship - the US alone added 5 million pets from 2019 to 20...

The most aggressive monetary tightening cycle since the 1990s has sent interest rates soaring. Yet Canadians keep on spending. Why and will they keep it up? In this week’s episode of the 10-Minute Take, RBC Economists Claire Fan and Carrie Freestone explain why spending will slow but won’t outright decline.

If you’re wondering whether your grocery bills will ever turn out less scary than they are now, we have bad news for you. Food inflation peaked in Canada just this past January. But slowing inflation does not mean lower prices, it merely means prices will climb at a slower rate. What’s causing prices for food to stay high? And moving forward, what are some of the challenges that will continue to p...

The Bank of Canada put the brakes on its record rate hiking cycle in January. Five months later, it sprang back into action—surprising much of Bay Street with a 25 basis point increase. What drove the decision and how much higher will rates rise? More important: how will this impact Canadians? Join RBC Economists Claire Fan and Carrie Freestone on this week’s episode of the 10-Minute Take.

Anxious to scratch your travel itch this summer but worried about disruptions and high prices? You’re not alone! In this week’s episode of the 10 Minute Take podcast, RBC economists Carrie Freestone and Claire Fan break down this year's travel trends for you. We start with what drove the chaos last summer, before moving on to chat about some interesting trends we’ve uncovered. As it turns out, des...

“Allow us to introduce ourselves!” In this episode of the 10 Minute Take, get to know RBC economists Carrie Freestone and Claire Fan. Spend a day in the life of an economist and get our latest hot takes on the macro outlook. What's changed since RBC’s initial recession call last summer? Are signs of weakness emerging? And finally, what do we lie awake thinking about?