The 10-Minute Take

The first Joint Review of CUSMA is underway. With U.S. tariffs still in place and trade tensions high, there's significant anxiety about what happens next. The good news: No extension on July 1 doesn't mean a termination. CUSMA won't expire until 2036, and meantime, the agreement and its related exemptions will keep functioning as is. What follows is likely a lengthy negotiation with key trade irr...

The U.S. Federal Reserve’s policy meeting in June marked Kevin Warsh's first as Chair—and it came with a clear shift in focus. Inflation dominated the press conference, while the labor market received minimal attention. The changes went beyond tone. Forward guidance was removed from the Statement, the easing bias is gone, and half of FOMC participants view at least one interest rate hike as approp...

The 2026 FIFA World Cup has officially started with games spanning cities across North America, drawing spectators from all over the world. But as it creates buzz, it won't distract from the headwinds still facing Canada’s economy. In Q1, gross domestic product contracted by a small annualized 0.1% to mark a second consecutive decline. However, the contraction is marginal and narrow—not the kind o...

U.S. headline inflation just posted its hottest print in nearly three years, driven by surging energy prices and sticky core inflation pressures. At the same time, labour market data is looking solid, and growth hasn’t meaningfully slowed. We have yet to see signs of Stagflation Lite materializing, and don’t expect the oil price shock will tip the economy into a recession. In this episode of the 1...

Softening in Canada’s headline labour market data this year masks a more encouraging underlying story. Job losses remain concentrated in tariff-exposed sectors, layoffs are declining, and hiring is beginning to rebound—all signs of resilience beneath the surface. In this episode of the 10-Minute Take, RBC Economics' Claire Fan and Carrie Freestone discuss: What hidden unemployment means and whethe...

U.S. productivity growth is strong, business investment in information processing and equipment has surged, and headlines about AI replacing jobs are growing louder. But, how much of this is actually attributable to AI and how much is noise? Reality is nuanced. We’re still largely in the building out phase of AI investment, and it’s too soon to say whether AI has led to a structural break in produ...

Global oil prices remain high as the Middle East conflict persists, raising questions about a potential comeback of the broad-based inflation Canada experienced during and after the pandemic. But, this shock is fundamentally different from the past. Unlike 2022, when the Russia-Ukraine war compounded systemic supply chain disruptions from pandemic lockdowns, today's commodity shock is narrowly con...

Ongoing conflict in the Middle East has pushed global oil prices higher, raising questions about the impact to Canada’s oil-exporting economy. This shock differs fundamentally from the past including 2015’s oil price collapse, which drove structural changes in Canada’s energy sector over the past decade. The result: A surprisingly neutral net effect from today’s high oil prices on real economic gr...

Rising oil prices and its impact on the US economy are continuously evolving, and how long the crisis lasts will be the key determinant of where headline inflation settles. If the shock persists, higher energy prices will layer onto core inflation pressures amid the passthrough of tariffs to prices. In this episode of the 10-Minute Take, RBC’s Head of US Economics, Mike Reid, joins economist Carri...

The U.S. Supreme Court’s decision against the use of the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) to impose broad-based tariffs is far from the end of the U.S. tariff story. The administration has already pivoted to new legislative authorities and opened investigations for future measures. For Canada, the implications are more limited than many would think. In this episode of the 10-Min...

One month into 2026, U.S. inflation continues to run above 2% for a fifth consecutive year—and the reason goes beyond a single cause. Some recent data—including easing in core services and vehicle prices—might suggest relief is near, but a closer look reveals these improvements are unlikely to persist as a trend. In this episode of the 10-Minute Take, RBC Economics' Claire Fan and Carrie Freestone...

Canada's extreme trade concentration—with 75% of energy exports and 77% of manufacturing exports going to the U.S. in 2024—has left the country vulnerable to protectionist trade policies. While 2025 data shows encouraging early signs of diversification, most Canadian exporters still lack the infrastructure and trade channels needed to pivot away from U.S. markets effectively. In this episode of th...

We're back for season four! In this season premiere, join RBC Economics’ Claire Fan and Carrie Freestone as they cut through the noise and reveal themes that matter for the Canadian and U.S. economies in 2026. Despite a turbulent 2025, Canada's economy is starting from a surprisingly stronger position than many realize. Per-capita GDP improved for the first time in three years. The real question i...

Trade disruptions in 2025 took a toll on Canada-U.S. relations after decades of coordination and integration. Still, the two economies are more similar than many may appreciate.  In this season finale of the 10-Minute Take, RBC Economics' Claire Fan and Carrie Freestone round up three common themes shaping both economies this year. They include: • Slowing population growth, and how it’s impac...

The U.S. government shutdown ended after 43 days—the longest in history—and, economists now have more clarity about the release of government data. But, clarity on timing doesn't mean clarity on the state of the U.S. economy. Without key October data, the U.S. Federal Reserve faces significant fog heading into the critical December interest rate decision. In this episode of the 10-Minute Take...

In response to tariff pressures and economic weakness, Budget 2025 commits big new spending to spark private investment and reignite growth – with higher deficits and debt as a result. In this episode of the 10-Minute Take, RBC Economist Claire Fan is joined by RBC Assistant Chief Economist Cynthia Leach to discuss: Why fiscal policy is the right tool to address the weak growth outlook How the gro...

It’s the 23rd day of the U.S. government shutdown and 750,000 federal workers are furloughed. Significant data disruptions are clouding visibility over the economy just as the U.S. Federal Reserve restarts its rate-cutting cycle. In this episode of the 10-Minute Take, join RBC Economists Claire Fan and Carrie Freestone as they discuss: Why data disruptions may be more concerning than immediate eco...

Amid the constant churn of U.S. tariff headlines, fundamental questions about Canada's trade often go unanswered. Questions such as: • What exactly does Canada export—and where does it all go? • Has Canada always been this dependent on the U.S. market? • Which provinces are most at risk from trade disruptions? • Should we worry less about tariffs on certain goods like fungible raw materials than o...

Both the Federal Reserve and the Bank of Canada returned from the sidelines this week – with widely anticipated decisions to cut their policy rate by 25 basis points. But behind these moves lie different motivations and signals, sparking debate over what this means for the economic outlook on both sides of the border. In this episode, RBC economists Carrie Freestone and Claire Fan unpack what drov...

U.S. tariff collection among imports are now at the highest level since the 1930s, and many are wondering how these policies are measuring up against their objectives. In this episode of the 10-Minute Take, RBC Economics' Assistant Chief Economist Nathan Janzen is joined by Senior Economist Claire Fan to discuss: • Who’s bearing the costs of tariffs so far. • The current and future prosp...

Recent economic data in the U.S. reinforces our "stagflation lite" view as early signs of tariff impacts have emerged alongside unexpected labour market weakness. In this episode of the 10-Minute Take, RBC Economics' Claire Fan and Carrie Freestone break down: • What stagflation lite means and why it's different from severe stagflation in the 1970s. • How producer price data are showing early impa...

The Bank of Canada held its overnight rate steady for the third consecutive meeting in July despite acknowledging some softening in the Canadian economy since January. In this episode of the 10-Minute Take, RBC Economics' Claire Fan and Carrie Freestone break down: What's keeping the central bank on the sidelines. How CUSMA exemptions have protected Canada from the worst of U.S. tariff impacts. Th...

Canada's housing market is showing early signs of recovery after months of trade war anxiety kept homebuyers on the sidelines. But even with three consecutive months of increasing home resales, activity remains below levels at the beginning of the year, with significant regional differences across the country. In this episode of the 10-Minute Take, RBC Economics' Carrie Freestone and Claire Fan di...

The U.S. unemployment rate has remained near historic lows amid massive uncertainty from trade wars. A long-term structural trend—surging retirements—is keeping the unemployment rate from rising drastically even during short-term cyclical deterioration in the labour market. In this episode of the 10-Minute Take, RBC Economics’ Carrie Freestone and Claire Fan discuss: • The mechanisms of how record...

Oil prices spiked last week following escalating conflict in the Middle East between Israel and Iran. This has raised concerns about higher inflation against an already uncertain economic backdrop. In this episode of the 10-Minute Take, RBC Economics’ Claire Fan and Carrie Freestone unpack: • How high inflation could hit in Canada and the U.S. if oil prices continue higher. • How higher energy pri...