STUMP - Death and Taxes

Looking at my Movember 2023 fundraiser, its current progress, and concerns over how cancer screening and treatment may have been interrupted during the pandemic. Episode Links Movember Fundraiser Here are the places you can donate to the Movember Foundation, which supports men’s health, specifically focusing on prostate cancer, testicular cancer, and men’s mental health: * Mary Pat Campbell’s MoSp...

Spurred on the untimely death of Matthew Perry (from the cast of Friends, not the 19th century U.S. naval commander), I look back at the history of U.S. mortality trends in a longer trend and how much they’ve improved, and how middle-aged men dying (possibly) of a heart attack would have been very common in the 1950s… but then I end on a happy note. Seriously. Episode Links Mortality Trends in the...

In which I use the example of a valuation model gone awry from “Power Failure”, reviewed by Paul Conlin in an April 2023 Society of Actuaries podcast (linked in show notes). The book was about the failure of GE when it switched from being an electricity-related company to a financial services company. This episode is really about professionalism in modeling - and how all modeling professionals sho...

In which I look at data issues generated via spreadsheet use (specifically how Excel changes data when are imported into Excel) in genomics research. I reference the European Spreadsheet Risks Interest Group (I’m a member!), ASOP 23 on data quality, and give some unsolicited advice to the genomics research community. There will be a part two on other spreadsheet issues, and other actuarial standar...

In which I take Amit Varma’s podcast The Seen and the Unseen’s episode 347: India’s Pension Crisis, which he talks with guests Ajay Shah and Renuka Sane. In 2004, India switched from a traditional defined benefit plan for its public pensions to a defined contribution plan… and opened it up to the general population as well. In theory, at least. Evidently, in recent years, it has been running into...

I describe the concept behind the group Insurance Collaboration to Save Lives, in which the financial interests of insurance companies (specifically, life insurance companies) align with helping people to live longer, sometimes with some relatively simple interventions to improve health outcomes. There are upcoming conferences and talks (some free!) so check out the show notes. Episode Links Insur...

In which I explain why I dodged buying a smartphone until two weeks ago (and why I finally bought one), my perspective on using technology, and some apps in AI I have been using lately (and ones I am seeking). Also — Substack has implemented a podcast transcription feature - check it out! Episode Links Cross-written letters Wikipedia: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Crossed_letter A crossed letter i...

Three different tales of seeking something other than truth — and definitely getting something else: deadly chihuahuas (?), ChatGPT-generated academic papers (?), and who exactly tampered with data… and shouldn’t the researchers whose names are on the paper have checked that the data were credible? Episode Links The stupid argument on Reddit (ripped out of context to protect the stupid): Matthew 7...

I talk about BEAM (Bridge to Enter Advanced Mathematics), an educational non-profit currently based in NYC and LA focused on providing a program to help underserved students enter advanced study in mathematics. I have a personal connection to the founder Dan Zaharapol through Canada/USA Mathcamp, back when he was a student and I was staff. BEAM has a 10-year strategic growth plan and is also seeki...

I look at gatekeeping aspects in higher education and particular professions, specifically looking at my own profession, as the Society of Actuaries announces upcoming changes to the pathway to the Fellowship credential (which I have). Also, I consider research and advocacy from the Brookings Institute on restrictions in college majors. I did throw in sumo (because I always throw in sumo when I ca...

The Detroit bankruptcy was filed in federal court in July 2013, and I look at the history since then. There is a lawsuit going on right now in 2023, involving the Detroit police and fire pension fund, which relates to its deal from the bankruptcy workout. In addition, the school system wasn’t involved in the bankruptcy. I look at STUMP’s coverage of Detroit’s woes over the past decade. Episode Lin...

I discuss two other research reports by Francesca Gino in which the Data Colada fraud researchers found tampered data, how science (and other STEM) actually gets developed, and the need for publishing negative results … that there’s no “there” there. Even the “hard” sciences find replication problems in research sometimes. Episode Links Data Colada Links Part 3: [111] Data Falsificada (Part 3): "T...

In this episode, I discuss the new version of Actuarial Standard of Practice 4, Measuring Pension Obligations, and its requirement of calculating and disclosing a low-default-risk obligation measure. This standard went into effect in February 2023, so these numbers will be coming out in reports to come, and will be most notable in disparities to the standard valuation of public pension obligations...

I go through the story of some social science experiments on dishonesty that seem to have some data that have been altered from their original form. I first wrote about these experiments back in 2013, then had an update in 2021 when data scientists at Data Colada found altered data from one of the studies, and now they have found further evidence of data falsification in 2023. They use both aspect...

Lightning strike deaths have decreased by over 80% from 1968 to 2022! Thanks to lots of changes, but primarily because of improved weather forecasting. Alas, they still occur, as was just reported from Texas, but we can thank technological change for this benefit. Episode Links Substack post link (this post) Lightning Strike Deaths Graph of Lightning strike death counts Graph of Lightning strike d...

It’s graduation season around here, so I tell my own story of a failure to get a degree — which includes how I found inspiration in an exhibit at the Met Museum of Art in 2001 to help me decide to make a big change in my life and move onto something else. It’s a weird piece of advice for grads, I know, but hey — give people something different. I talk about sunk costs, opportunity cost, and constr...

I took a trip to Brooklyn to the Museum of Failure, a pop-up installation in Industry City. It’s a look at failed innovations, and some fun reminders of how much work it is to really make something succeed. It does well to remember how difficult it is to get everything to hit all targets. Episode Links The Museum of Failure Museum of Failure blog Facit Calculators Facit ( Facit AB ) was an industr...

Yesterday, I walked around the Ancient Burying Ground in Hartford, Connecticut, next door to my office building. I found some interesting graves, and I also remembered an article by a fellow actuary who also walked around his local cemetery. And I found a headstone database for the Ancient Burying Ground. Happy Memorial Day! Episode Links Ancient Burying Ground Death’s Head Gravestones Images bega...

In which I discuss some of the fiscal plans for Chicago of the new mayor Brandon Johnson and some of his political friends… and the constraints they will labor under: a population that has already shrunk and a significant revenue target that has already threatened to up stakes and move out of Illinois entirely. Episode Links Earlier STUMP post: 8 May 2023, WBBM: Brandon Johnson inheriting some of...

In which I use some “mysterious” deaths in the Dominican Republic, gun deaths, and drug overdose deaths to talk about two core cognitive biases: confirmation bias and availability bias (or heuristic). I also use non-mortality examples from an article I wrote in 2010. Episode Links Battling Cognitive Bias April 2010: “Battling Cognitive Bias” , The Stepping Stone, Society of Actuaries Time and agai...

I look back at why pension obligation bonds were pursued by public pension plans, whether they were a good idea, and specifically what makes them OF THE DEVIL (and what that means). Yes, I hope that got your attention. To be sure, with increasing interest rates right now, POB deals will be few and far between, but I want to take a snapshot of why POBs are not ONE CLEVER TRICK for solving public pe...

In response to two other podcasts, I talk about some concrete risks that people have dealt with through history, but I think people may not fear as much as they should anymore. Fear (the emotional reaction to risk) and danger (the rational assessment of risk) can guide you, but it helps for you to take a broad look at the environment. Episode Links Crossing Thin Ice podcast - look for Episode 8, 2...

Talking about the upcoming theme for posts this week: CHOICES HAVE CONSEQUENCES…. for retirement policy. The big choices: retirement age, the shape of benefits (COLAs, taxable?, etc), and more… but there was a choice made before all these that influenced how all of these will turn out: total fertility rate. Episode Links STUMP, April 14: The French Continue to Protest Over Retirement Age Changes I...

The long-time comptroller general of South Carolina was recently forced to resign due to a $3.5 billion cash balance error that accrued over a decade in accounting. How did this happen, and why didn’t this affect state budgets? What is the difference between budgets and financial reports? Episode Links Associated Press, March 23, 2023: South Carolina’s top accountant to resign after $3.5B error CO...

In which I talk about all sorts of death themes surrounding Holy Week, art works at the Metropolitan Museum of Art, and death in my life… remember your death while we are in life. It doesn’t mean things are morbid. Episode Links Spy Wednesday Catholic News Agency: Why is today called Spy Wednesday? Met Museum of Art Salvador Dali The Last Supper Juan de Pareja Exhibit link This exhibition offers a...