STUMP - Death and Taxes

I talk about three big inspirations to me: Thomas Day (a North Carolina cabinetmaker, an antebellum free Black man), Candace Wheeler (the “mother” of American interior design — for the masses!), and Julia Child (I hope you already know who she is). There is plenty of beauty to be found in the product of everyday work and living. Episode Links Thomas Day Wikipedia article Thomas Day (c. 1801–1861)...

In this episode, I look at both the Democratic and Republican Party platform sections on Social Security. After all, the Trust Fund for the Old Age portion of the program is projected to run out by 2035, and the entire Baby Boom generation is Social Security eligible at this point… seems like this is something they should be addressing. The answer will surprise nobody (they don’t want to touch it...

With the Democratic Party VP nominee pick, some were trying to make hay over Tim Walz having no apparent stock ownership. However, between Walz and his wife, they have four traditional pensions, and these pensions do have stock (and other) financial markets exposure. In fact, I looked at one of these pensions earlier this year: the Minnesota Teachers Fund… and Walz is the chairman of the board of...

In light of the ongoing anger of Ohio STRS participants over the removal of COLAs (cost-of-living adjustments) in 2017, and the plan’s fairly typical asset allocation for a public plan (though better-than-peers results), I look at two recent research papers calling into question the use of alternative assets in public pensions. I have a different point to make: that the assets are not really what...

I love the classics. Bobby Bonilla Day has it all: deferred annuities, too-high discount rates for a present value, Bernie Madoff, trying to avoid a “tax”, credit risk… let’s look in on my favorite sports deal while it’s still paying out, this July 1. Episode Links Coverage of Bobby Bonilla Day Fox Sports: What is Bobby Bonilla Day? Explaining the New York Mets' ongoing contract saga Major League...

Whatever you call it: Campbell’s Law (no relation), Goodhart’s Law, or the cobra effect — when you use measures that are merely cheap stand-ins for a much more difficult result you want to get at, people will start gaming that measure. And you will often get a result you really don’t like. Episode Links Wells Fargo News Bloomberg, Matt Levine: Wells Fargo Mouse Jigglers In 2016, Wells Fargo & Co....

Jumping off from a recent story on embezzlement from a Florida Catholic church, I look at past stories of massive frauds, as well as some other failures and successes. I talk about: Rita Crundwell in Dixon, Illinois. Rizzo and Bell, California. The London Whale. And a happy save for TIAA before the financial crisis in 2008. Episode Links The Pillar: Massive parish theft calls for more internal con...

This one is dark, so you’ve been warned. In my post last week on drug overdoses, I noted the great increase in drug overdose deaths during the pandemic, and I address the issue of drug addiction and its relationship with physical pain. Sometimes, there are no good choices. Episode Links (Updated) Matt Bivens, M.D. piece: Drug Overdose Death Stats Dashboard of U.S. Population Mortality — Opioid Dea...

Ohio State Teachers Retirement System (STRS) is having some drama, as a consulting firm has resigned due to power struggles between competing interests. The plan participants, whether current teachers or retirees, are angry about STRS investment staff getting bonuses while they do not get cost-of-living adjustments for retirement benefits. All of this while in an economic environment of high infla...

Back in December, somebody asked me how many people alive now would be alive in 75 years. The answer: about 15% (for the U.S.). This is not a trivial question — it relates to questions of political decision-making for the long-term, such as public finance. In this episode, I look at the survivorship for 10 years, 25 years, 50 years, and 75 years, and think through what this means. Graphs and sprea...

I’ve got five decades on me now, and five pieces of advice/themes to share: * Be a good animal * The universe is stranger and more wonderful than you can imagine * Never pay retail! * You can try anything once OR Risk is Opportunity * It’s not about you (or me) Episode Links Be a Good Animal 2015 LinkedIn: Best Advice: Be a Good Animal Battling Cognitive Bias, reprint in 2018 Thank you for reading...

In this episode, I look at the most recent revelations re: Francesca Gino’s academia malfeasance, but other tales of academic malpractice. Such as: filling in missing values in datasets with Excel’s autofill functionality, and not sharing data in chemistry/material science or cancer research in what may be fraudulent research. How can we depend on the data and results from what is supposedly hard...

Let’s look at the condition of Minnesota Teachers, Connecticut state funds, and Chicago pensions, and three different (actually more) proposals to fix what ails these systems. While Chicago is actually in the worst situation, the proposals for Chicago sound the most realistic in terms of fixing its problems. Edward Siedle’s links Mar 2024: Minnesota Teachers Fundraise Forensic Audit of State Pensi...

That life expectancy was around 64 when Social Security was started is misleading. That is also irrelevant for making decisions for making Social Security sustainable now. The parameters involved are more complex: we need to look at life expectancy age 65, the size of the working population compared to the retired population, and how many children are coming to add to that working population. Deci...

Looking at a recent sumo world scandal, but also looking at it from the point of view of self-regulation. Can self-regulation work? Looking at professional sumo in Japan, Equitable Life Assurance Society in the UK, and actuarial practice in public pensions in the United States. [Gyoji photo: By Eckhard Pecher (Arcimboldo) - Own work, CC BY 3.0, https://commons.wikimedia.org/w/index.php?curid=33816...

I reach back to a two-parter I wrote in 2012 for the Stepping Stone, the newsletter for the Leadership and Personal Development interest section of the Society of Actuaries. My argument: read the classics — they’re chock full of stories relevant to leadership. Episode Links The original articles: Part 1: Leadership Books - the Classics Part 2: The Classics, Part 2 Project Gutenberg Links Plutarch:...

Let’s look at the 2024 Financial State of the Cities, the annual report from Truth in Accounting. This one is based on the reports coming from FY2022, so there is a lag, as you can tell. I focus specifically on New York City, the city coming in dead last, as well as a coming development in “machine-readable” data for state and local financial reporting. Episode Links Truth in Accounting’s FSOC 202...

Three tales of accountability… or lack thereof. I start with a “heartwarming” tale of a supposed Excel error - $92 million error - that becomes an opportunity to strengthen the corporate team… yay! (That’s not exactly what happened, FWIW.) The second one is from Liz Farmer and involves a Virginia town with finances in a mess. And the third… is really big. But shouldn’t surprise anybody. Episode Li...

I cover how some people live to a grand old age — by lying about it! And why do they do that? For the money, of course! The sentinel effect, though, can prevent this from occurring. Looking at the case of the oldest man in Japan who had been dead for 30 years and more. Episode links Secret of Supercentenarians? 2009, NewScientist: Secrets of the centenarians: Life begins at 100 Dying of old age"Th...

In the brou-ha-ha over Chris Rufo’s masters degree from Harvard (Extension School), people expose that Harvard education is not particularly special, but that the brand comes from selectivity more than the education. I talk about the distinction between education and credentials, and my preference for separating the two. Episode Links Harvard About Harvard Extension School Since our founding in 19...

In which I give some advice as to what composition teachers should do, given that students can just go to chatGPT and ask it to generate an essay on whatever. The tool is being used, and I think there are intelligent ways to use it for composition. Episode Links Prior episode in referring to ChatGPT use in academic papers Guillaume Cabanac Twitter feed: Guillaume Cabanac ⟨here and elsewhere⟩ He re...

In which I discuss the recent brou-ha-ha over ex-President of Harvard Claudine Gay’s plagiarism in her published papers (and dissertation), the likelihood of widespread plagiarism (in certain fields), and the incentives to plagiarism and faked data in academia. Episode Links Tom Lehrer: Lobachevsky Tom Lehrer songs page for Lobachevsky Lyrics I am never forget the day I first meet the great Lobach...

Let’s look back on the year that was 2023 at STUMP: growth in subscriptions, my top four posts from 2023, my spin-off substack in sumo statistics, and some Catholic recommendations for the new year. Episode Links STUMP growth (hmmm, kind of oxymoronic) That vertical leap in midyear is thanks to the substack network. I did not do any promotional drive myself. Top 4 Posts 1. Top Causes of Death by A...

I look at an opinion piece by fellow actuary Larry Pollack, on the new low-default pension obligation measure that is to be added to actuarial reports for public pensions in the U.S. These should start coming out in 2024. Episode Links Larry Pollack: New Disclosure Rules Expose Bad Actuarial Finance; Obscures Trillions of Public Pension Debt Actuarial finance assumes away the cost of the guarantee...

In which I thank all the 2023 Movember donors, and I encourage spreading the love. Episode links Movember 2023 Here are the places you can donate to the Movember Foundation, which supports men’s health, specifically focusing on prostate cancer, testicular cancer, and men’s mental health: * Mary Pat Campbell’s MoSpace – a place to donate at Movember itself * My Movember Facebook fundraiser – my off...