Stock Talk

Despite all the recent market turmoil, our team at OHFG believes April 7th will be likely marked the low—not just a low—for the S&P 500, and why historical signals like the rare Zweig Breadth Thrust are flashing strong bullish signs for the next 6–12 months. I break down the data behind these signals, explain why panicking now is often a mistake for long-term investors, and share who you shoul...

Let's cut to the chase about the recent volatility in the markets and what it could mean for long-term investors. You’ll hear my take on whether April 7th marked a low or the low for the S&P 500, why I believe now may actually be a time to consider buying rather than retreating, and why the much-feared "Death Cross" may be more of a lagging indicator than a useful signal. I also compare today’...

In this podcast, I take you through what has been one of the most unexpected and chaotic starts to a presidential term in modern market history—what I’m calling “Trump 2.0 meets economic whiplash.” You’ll learn why the markets went from optimism and strength to panic and selloff almost overnight, how the surprise implementation of global tariffs reshaped investor sentiment, and why historical mark...

Chaos has ensued in the financial markets following President Trump’s surprise “Liberation Day” tariff announcement—something no one had priced in or planned for. I walk you through what actually happened during the speech, why the markets initially rose and then collapsed, and how this unconventional tariff policy based on trade deficits, not reciprocal rates, led to a full-blown market rout. You...

Why do I always pay so much attention to real-time real interest rates? Specifically, the difference between nominal Treasury yields and breakeven inflation rates—and how these signals have historically influenced the stock market. Walk with me through charts comparing the S&P 500 with 5-year real rates from the post-2008 QE era to today, highlighting how market reactions to these rates have s...

In this week’s video, we’re diving back into the charts and data to analyze the recent -10%+ decline in the S&P 500 and what history tells us about similar market drops. While volatility can be uncomfortable, historical data shows that sharp declines often lead to strong rebounds over the following months. We’ll cover 75 years of market trends, the impact of economic policies, and key indicato...

Investors, in this week’s Stock Talk, we’re diving into the market indicators our team tracks—signals that have historically led market moves. While I teased the idea of Ripley's Believe it or Not trading, the reality is, we’re working with strange but consistently true trading—patterns, seasonals, and real-time data series that consistently provide insight into market direction. You'll walk away...

Lets break down the turbulent start to 2025 in the stock market and what it means for investors moving forward. You'll learn why recent market volatility isn’t unusual, how historical data suggests seasonality may soon turn in investors' favor, and why the early months of a new presidential term often bring uncertainty. We’ll also discuss key economic factors, such as inflation expectations, gover...

Let's break down last week’s sharp market sell-off and what it means for investors moving forward. We’ll discuss the economic data that triggered the drop, including rising inflation expectations and slowing growth, and how these trends align with what we’ve been forecasting over the past few months. I also dive into the historical patterns of market volatility in February, particularly in the fir...

Let's dive into the bullish case for stocks in 2025, breaking down key market trends, investor sentiment, and economic indicators that point to continued growth. While last week’s discussion highlighted economic slowdowns, this week, we focus on why slowing doesn’t mean shrinking and why the market remains strong. We analyze historical market patterns, earnings trends, and currency movements to sh...

What most financial media outlets either don’t know or won’t tell you: The American economy is slowing rapidly after the holiday-driven consumer boom, and I dive into the real data—beyond the short-term government reports—to explain why. We’ll look at how job growth has been overstated, where the real hiring has been happening, and why government employment trends matter for investors. I also disc...

Are you wondering how the new tariffs may affect the stock market? Today I share the key insights from Oak Harvest’s 1st Half 2025 Market Outlook Summit. We cover a wide range of topics, including stock, bond, and currency market trends, current economic events, and the potential impact of new tariff policies announced by the Trump administration on market volatility. I break down how these sudden...

Learn about the concept of "American Exceptionalism" and why U.S. markets have outperformed globally, the ongoing “soft landing” of the economy, and what historical comparisons to past market cycles suggest for 2025. I also break down the impact of a stronger U.S. dollar on multinational companies, the outlook for China’s markets, and how economic data surprises are influencing investor sentiment....

Investors, in this video, I’ll break down why 2025 has started with a dip in equity markets and why it’s not yet cause for alarm. We’ll explore historical parallels, including the last successful “soft landing” under Greenspan in the mid-90s, and discuss key drivers behind the recent market pullback, such as tax-related stock sales, corporate buyback blackouts, and rising interest rates. I’ll also...

Are the Doomsday predictions you keep hearing worth paying attention to? The financial world has this persistent cycle of fearmongering and I'm sure you've heard of many of the personalities that profit from it, like Harry Dent, Robert Kiyosaki, and Nassim Taleb. By revisiting past forecasts and outcomes, I highlight the glaring inaccuracies of these so-called "experts" and their sensationalized,...

It's time to kick off the new year with the first "Stock Talk" of 2025, sharing insights from the Oak Harvest Investment Team’s outlook for the financial markets in the first half of the year. We revisit key themes from 2024, including the U.S. economy’s soft landing and the resilience of the bull market, while exploring why we believe 2025 could follow a similar trajectory despite expected volati...

Three roads diverged in a yellow wood…oh wait, that’s not the poem. The Oak Harvest investment team gets often asked about scenario analysis and other potential outcomes for the stock, bond and financial markets. This makes sense as no one's crystal ball is perfect each in every year. Given its year end 2024, we already alluded to our best guess for now to where markets end 2025, 6660 currently, a...

Drawing on historical patterns and economic indicators, I outline why I believe the S&P 500's trajectory could continue toward 7000 by late 2025, emphasizing the factors that could drive such growth. I'll discuss the significance of valuation tools, the bond market's role, and how historical precedent during past administrations might shape market behavior. Whether you're a seasoned investor o...

Welcome, and thank you for tuning in! I hope you had a wonderful Thanksgiving and are enjoying the holiday season. In this video, I share insights into current market trends and reflect on historical patterns that may provide valuable context for today’s investing environment.   Key Highlights:   Bull Market Trends: An overview of the ongoing bull market for equities, which has persisted for over...

Is the U.S. dollar's dominance is under threat? We’ll explore what de-dollarization really means, its drivers like China’s push for yuan-based trade, and the evolving landscape of global currencies. I analyze key trends in the Dollar Index (DXY), compare the dollar’s performance to gold and other currencies, and address concerns about shifting trade dynamics. You'll also learn why the doomsayers p...

Tune in to see historical data on stock market performance during GOP sweeps, seasonality trends, and parallels between Trump’s first term and what we might expect from his second. You’ll see a range of charts on topics like market volatility, earnings growth, and sector performance, along with actionable insights for navigating this bullish period in the market. I also preview our upcoming livest...

With the market currently in a “Goldilocks” phase—steady economic growth and moderate inflation—I discuss why, regardless of who wins, investors may benefit from staying invested in U.S. equities. I also explain why market history suggests continued strength through the end of 2024, given strong first-half stock returns. This is not an endorsement of any candidate, but rather an objective look at...

Without endorsing any candidate.. I reflect on how past events, like the 2016 election, might mirror today's financial climate. I dive into recent trends, from inflation concerns and the “Trump trade” effects to the volatility patterns we've seen in the markets around past elections. We also examine data on key issues impacting voters, such as the economy and immigration, and how these may influen...

Many investors have missed out by sitting on the sidelines, waiting for the "right time" to re-enter. I'll walk you through key themes like the impact of volatility, the role of elections on market behavior, and how hedge strategies really play out versus the media’s doom-and-gloom predictions. You’ll also learn about the importance of earnings over politics, which stocks outperformed this earning...

As we approach the 2024 Presidential election, watch this video to learn about the key indicators that suggest how to navigate potential market fluctuations, including the CBOE Volatility Index (VIX), realized volatility (RVOL), and volatility futures—tools that can help clarify whether hedging your portfolio is worthwhile. I discuss how many investors have been overly cautious this year, missing...