Stock Talk

Is every jobs report, inflation update, or GDP release really telling investors what they need to know? In this week's Stock Talk, Chris Perras explains why successful investing is not about reacting to every economic headline or trying to predict the next government report. Using the latest employment data as an example, he shows how economic statistics are often revised months later and why head...

Think you can outsmart the market? Every geopolitical crisis makes investors wonder if it's time to sell, but history tells a different story. In this week's Stock Talk, I explore why headlines surrounding Russia, Ukraine, Iran, Israel, China, and Taiwan often create short-term fear while long-term market performance has historically been driven by corporate earnings and interest rates. Using rece...

The biggest risk in a volatile market may not be the pullback itself, it may be the decisions investors make because of it. In this Stock Talk episode, Chris Perras and Charles Scavone of Oak Harvest Financial Group break down the major forces shaping the second half of 2026, including corporate earnings, peak earnings growth, interest rates, the U.S. dollar, a new Federal Reserve chairman, AI-rel...

Is the 2026 bull market still intact, or is the harder part of the ride just beginning? In this Stock Talk preview, I walk through Oak Harvest’s Second Half 2026 Market Outlook livestream and explain what investors may want to watch as we move into the back half of the year, including S&P 500 earnings growth, interest rates, inflation expectations, energy prices, AI-driven capital spending, po...

Can strong earnings still disappoint investors? In this week’s Stock Talk, I explain why “good” results are not always good enough in today’s stock market.   Earnings season has been outstanding, with S&P 500 profit growth accelerating, margins remaining strong, and analysts raising expectations for the rest of 2026. But several high-quality companies still sold off after reporting strong resu...

Is the AI boom becoming the next dot-com bubble? In this video, I compare today’s AI-driven stock market with the 1999–2000 dot-com era, including the S&P 500, Nasdaq, semiconductor stocks, Fed policy, inflation, GDP growth, oil prices, and investor psychology. While today’s market has clear dot-com similarities, AI leaders are more profitable and better established than many internet stocks o...

What does stagflation really mean? Not just the textbook definition of high inflation combined with weak or slowing economic growth, but what it feels like for consumers and investors when essentials like food, energy, and insurance keep rising while wages and job opportunities fail to keep up.   I’ll walk through where stagflation pressures are showing up around the world, including Europe, China...

I’m breaking down the latest Q1 2026 earnings season update and why the AI capex boom may still have room to run. I cover accelerating S&P 500 earnings, record profit margins, rising EPS estimates, and how today’s cycle compares to the late-1990s Dotcom capex run. I also explain why higher oil prices and interest rates remain headwinds, but not roadblocks, when earnings growth is this strong....

In this Stock Talk, I bring the focus back to what has historically mattered most for stock prices over time: earnings. While headlines, geopolitics, oil prices, and Federal Reserve policy can create short-term volatility, I walk through current FactSet earnings data showing that many S&P 500 companies are reporting positive earnings and revenue surprises, profit margins remain strong, and lea...

Join me as I ask whether today’s AI investment cycle is truly an “obvious bubble” like the Dot-Com era, or whether the real story is more nuanced. I compare the stall-and-surge period of 1999–2000 with today’s AI acceleration into 2026, focusing on capex spending, the rise of agentic AI, market returns, valuations, and where risk is showing up. While today’s market has echoes of 1999, I explain wh...

In today’s Stock Talk, I take a step back from the headlines and ask a question investors hear in every market cycle: is this time really different, or does it just feel that way? I walk through historical market data from major conflicts like World War II, Korea, Vietnam, and Iraq to show how markets have often recovered faster than emotions would suggest, even during periods of extreme uncertain...

What if the AI boom isn’t another dot-com bubble at all, but the next great re-acceleration in markets? In this video, I break down the striking similarities and crucial differences between the 1999 dot-com capex cycle and today’s AI investment surge, including exploding data center demand, the rise of agentic AI, Nvidia’s role, private vs. public market risk, interest rates, and what all of it co...

What if the reason stocks aren’t falling harder in 2026 has less to do with headlines and more to do with what most investors are missing? In this video, I break down why the market has remained surprisingly resilient despite war-driven inflation, geopolitical tension, and elevated volatility, and I show you the three forces I believe are keeping stocks supported: lower consumer sensitivity to ene...

This week, I break down why the market feels stuck and what’s really driving it. Stocks have now declined for three straight weeks, but this isn’t a typical selloff. Instead, we’re seeing a grinding, sideways market as inflation pressures quietly build again, led by rising oil prices and escalating tensions in the Middle East. I’ll explain why the bond market is signaling “higher for longer” inter...

I walk through what’s really happening in the market right now after months of volatility, geopolitical headlines, and sideways movement in the S&P 500. In this update, I revisit the two headwinds and two tailwinds we outlined in our 2026 outlook and explain how rising inflation expectations, volatility tied to the presidential cycle, and a six-month market pause may be setting the stage for t...

Wall Street is debating a provocative question this week: If AI continues exceeding expectations, could that actually become bearish for the broader economy? In this video, I walk through a widely discussed scenario analysis from Citrini Research that explores how accelerated AI adoption might pressure white-collar employment, consumer spending, housing, and credit markets by 2027–2028. Importantl...

Why is the S&P 500 flat in 2026 while small-cap value stocks and high-dividend sectors are quietly outperforming? In this market update, you’ll gain clarity on what is really happening beneath a calm headline number and why this year has started with one of the widest return dispersions in decades. We walk step by step through the performance differences between growth and value, large caps an...

Is the biggest surprise of 2026 already happening, and almost no one sees it yet?   I break down what investors should be watching in the S&P 500, earnings growth trends, AI-driven capital spending, and potential Federal Reserve policy shifts. You’ll learn how mid-term election cycles typically impact market volatility, what current earnings data may be signaling about valuation compression, a...

Early 2026 market volatility has my attention, despite realized volatility staying low... while the bond and options markets quietly flash warning signs for a choppy first quarter.   Today I'm revisiting why our team expected inflation to cool faster in 2025, driven by easing shelter costs, slowing wages, and productivity gains from AI, while also explaining why goods inflation may reaccelerate sh...

A Key Risk for 2026 emerged quickly. What sparked the sudden market pullback, and how should investors should think about it calmly and clearly? I discuss the impact of renewed tariff tensions, shifting inflation expectations, and why the VIX moved sharply higher, along with what the options and insurance markets may be signaling beneath the surface. Most importantly, I explain why periods of elev...

Do the Tradeable Volatility Markets think there are Road bumps coming? Turn on the financial news and you’ll hear the word “volatility” almost every day. But are markets really more volatile... or does it just feel that way? In this video, I break down what market volatility actually looks like as we head into 2026, a mid-term election year that has historically brought wider swings and heightened...

Patience may matter more than usual for investors in 2026.   Our investment team remains constructive on equities this year, but we expect increased market volatility, especially in the first half of the year. I review historical stock market drawdowns, presidential election cycle data, Federal Reserve transitions, inflation seasonality, and earnings growth expectations to explain why 2026 may be...

In Part 3 of Oak Harvest’s 2026 Market Outlook, I explain why our investment team believes 2026 could be a year of elevated market volatility and what history may suggest for long-term investors.   We look at past market behavior during midterm election years, second years of presidential terms, and periods when a new Federal Reserve Chair takes office. While history does not repeat exactly, under...

If you are approaching retirement — or already retired — understanding potential market dynamics ahead is an important part of long-term planning. In this episode, the investment team at Oak Harvest Financial Group shares its perspective on what investors may face in 2026, including the role of corporate earnings growth, valuation considerations, interest rates, and the likelihood of increased mar...

Here's your sneak peak of what our team expects for the 1st half of 2026 in the markets. I'll walk you through what investors can realistically expect when it comes to equity returns, market drawdowns, and volatility, and how those cycles tend to show up over time. You will come away with a clearer understanding of how often pullbacks actually occur, why volatility is a normal cost of long-term in...