Star Spangled Gamblers

Theodore Cazals (@trueslazac) explains why French president Emmanuel Macron is unpopular, and why the French political system has entered a period of stability anyway.  William Kedjanyi ( @KeejayOV3), Paul Krishnamurty (@paulmotty), and Pip Moss (@ PipsFunFacts) analyze how British Prime Minister Keir Starmer could hold on to power.   Timestamps 0:10: Chougule introduces France segment 1:26: Choug...

Part 1: UK-based political bettors William Kedjanyi, Paul Krishnamurty, and Pip Moss debate how long  Starmer can last as prime minister. Part 2: Chougule announces Polymarket sponsorship of DC Forecasting and Prediction Markets meetup. Timestamps 0:00: Chougule introduces UK segment 0:39: Polymarket markets on UK politics 1:35: Intro ends 3:36: UK segment begins 6:02: What has gone wrong for Star...

Part I: Akhi Pillalamarri ( @AkhiPill) and Pratik Chougule (@pjchougule)  explains why India and Pakistan won't resort to nuclear weapons.  Part II: David Glidden (@dglid) interviews Amb. Thomas Miller, former chair of the board of the U.S. subsidiary of Intralot, a corporation that runs lotteries in 11 states and the District of Columbia.  Timestamps 0:00: Chougule introduces segment with Pillala...

Akhi Pillalamarri (@akhipill) assesses whether and when India will attack Pakistan. Timestamps 0:00: Chougule introduces episode 0:58: DC Forecasting and Prediction Markets Meetup 2:25: Intro ends 4:25: Interview begins 4:46: Pillalamarri's background 5:53: Pillalamarri's experience with prediction markets 6:33: Polymarket lines on Indian strike on Pakistan 7:10: Background on India-Pakistan confl...

Curt Mills (@curtmills), Executive Director of The American Conservative , returns to discuss Virginia politics and why Republican Jason Miyares is likely to win the Attorney General race. Timestamps 0:00: Intro begins 1:04: Intro ends 3:05: Interview with Mills begins 3:37: Mills's connection to Virginia 5:16: Virginia politics 7:11: Thomas Jefferson High School 10:23: William and Mary University...

Latin America expert Ian Bezek returns for a deep dive into Chile's presidential election. Timestamps 0:00: Intro begins 0:35: Venezuela invasion 1:35: Intro ends 3:36: Interview begins 4:38: Polymarket odds 4:55: Chilean history 5:45: Pinochet 8:06: Chilean democracy 9:19: Ideologies of Chilean candidates 10:09: 2021 election 11:19: Boric's failures 12:20: Regional waves 13:43: First round 14:51:...

Jeffrey Pritchard, Legal Director of the Coalition for Political Forecasting, analyzes lawsuits about Kalshi's sports contracts and their implications for prediction markets. Rule3O3 discusses Indian-American gender divides and the impact of childhood grievances on politics. Timestamps 0:11: Chougule introduces segment with Pritchard 1:07: Chougule introduces Rule3O3 segment 1:28: Mamdani victory...

Jeffrey Pritchard, attorney and writer at Comped.com, returns to discuss developments in prediction market regulation under the Trump administration. Timestamps 0:00: Intro begins 0:37: CFTC prediction market roundtable 1:40: Polymarket investigation 3:02: Regulatory entrepreneurship 5:43: Intro ends 7:43: Interview begins 8:16: Comped.com 9:51: Trump administration 11:41: Quintenz 14:34: Pham 15:...

Jacky Pritchard, political bettor and former NY state lawyer, explains how Andrew Cuomo emerged as the frontrunning for New York City mayor. Timestamps 0:17: Jacky Pritchard 0:55: Pratik's impressions from Queens 2:44: Follow @iabvek and @politicalkiwi 3:17: Intro ends 5:17: Interview begins 6:00: How Jacky became interested in political betting 8:31: Jacky's legal background 9:52: How Cuomo made...

David Chee (@Hs_SirSalty) is the head organizer of Manifest. Before joining Manifold, he was a professional gamer, earning a number 1 ranking in the world at Hearthstone. David and Pratik (@pjchougule) discuss lessons from the gaming community on how to grow prediction markets. They also promote Manifest 2025. Timestamps 1:26: Number of Hearthstone players 2:50: Manifest 2025 3:24: Intro ends 5:24...

In 2016, Blitz (@blizzythegoat24) bet on Donald Trump to win the general election. In 2020, Blitz not only bet on Biden to win the election, he guessed the outcome of every state correctly. In 2024, he managed to do the same. He bet on Trump to win the election and guessed every state correctly. In this episode, Blitz explains for the first time how he did it. Timestamps 0:40: Blitz's achievement...

Harry Crane (@harrydcrane) explains how his model forecasted every state correctly in the 2024 U.S. presidential election. Timestamps 0:00: Intro 1:37: Intro ends 3:38: Interview with Crane begins 3:39: When Crane began developing model 3:59: Crane's goals 4:43: Assumptions behind the model 5:12: Polls 6:35: Voter registration 6:56: Crane's Sept 1 forecast 9:21: Approval ratings 9:32: Right track/...

Rule3O3 returns to discuss how Trump will resolve the debate on the right over H-1B visas. Timestamps  0:00: Intro begins 0:59: Modi-Trump meeting 2:00: Intro ends 4:00: Episode begins 5:13: Why the H1-B debate erupted 5:43: Sriram Krishnan 9:39: Laura Loomer 14:05: Right-wing debate 16:28: Indians 17:07: Chinese H-1Bs 18:00: Why Silicon Valley wants H-1Bs 20:57: Indian Twitter 20:22: Elon Musk 23...

Part 1: Dr. Cruse (@predoctit) makes the bear case on Kash Patel's confirmation odds Part 2: Rule3O3 (@Rule3O3) analyzes Vivek Ramaswamy's H1B gaffe Timestamps 0:00: Pratik Chougule (@pjchougule) intro 0:46: Pratik's updated odds on Patel's confirmation 2:03: Hegseth's confirmation 3:01: Pratik introduces Ramaswamy segment 5:41: Intro ends 7:42: Patel segment begins 12:19: Patel scandals 15:52: Dr...

Rutgers statistician Harry Crane critiques Nate Silver's model. Timestamps 1:49: Intro ends 3:55: Interview begins 4:08: Crane's bio 8:50: Nate Silver 10:42: Critique of Silver's model 12:42: Silver's criticism of prediction markets 23:57: Silver as tout 25:04: Silver's model 27:48: Simulations in Silver's model 30:51: 50-50 election forecasts Follow Star Spangled Gamblers on Twitter/X @ssgamblers...

Dr. Cruse (@predoctit) argues that Pete Hegseth, Trump's nominee for Secretary of Defense, is much less likely to get confirmed than the current markets prices indicate. Dr. Cruse and Pratik Chougule also discuss the universe of Republican senators who are willing to vote against Trump nominees. Timestamps 0:00: Pratik introduces episode 0:11: Thune whip count on Hegseth 8:05: Intro ends 10:06: In...

Dr. Cruse (@predoctit) returns to discuss the strategy behind Trump's nominations and administration appointments. Timestamps 0:08: Pratik introduces segment on Trump appointments 1:18: Call to support SSG 2:16: Golden Modelos 2:58: Intro ends 4:59: Trump segment begins 7:12: Trump's strategy 7:35: 4-D Chess? 25:45: Sarah Palin 33:02: Golden Modelos Worst Trade 39:03: Golden Modelos Best Fight Bet...

Gaeten Dugas (@GaetenD) and Fred Norris ( @PIsFredNorris) celebrate (belatedly) the winners of the 2023 Golden Modelos for the best and worst of political gambling. Timestamps 2:04: Appreciating the political betting community 2:42: Golden Modelos 2024 3:20: Intro ends 5:19: Episode begins 5:28: What are the Golden Modelos? 8:36: Rookie of the Year 10:42: Trader of the Year 16:44: Gaeten's best be...

Part 1: Fred Norris (@PIsFredNorris) declares victory in his side bet with Zoltar (@zoltarssg) on how ratings at Fox News would fare following Tucker Carlson's departure. Part 2: Coalition for Political Forecasting Research Director Mick Bransfield (@mickbransfield) and Pratik Chougule (@pjchougule) discuss the merits of CFTC Chairman Rostin Behnam's opposition to election event contracts. Timesta...

Pratik Chougule and Mick Bransfield discuss why the courts are allowing Kalshi to offer election markets for now, and provide an update on the litigation between Kalshi and the CFTC. Timestamps  0:00: Introduction begins 0:20: 2024 elections and prediction markets 0:31: Victory for Polymarket 1:53: Kalshi legal case 7:09: Interview with Bransfield begins 7:28: Bransfield joins Coalition for Politi...

Epoch Times reporter John Haughey tells us what he's hearing from  Timestamps 0:00: Pratik introduces John Haughey 3:00: SSG pre-election coverage 4:01: Manifold election party 6:52: Interview begins 7:39: Epoch Times 19:34: Haughey's interest in political betting 24:43: Data 31:16: Republican uniformity of message 38:28: Impressions from the ground 45:23: October surprises? 48:06: Montana Senate...

David Glidden (@dglid), co-founder of the Forecasting Meetup Network, provides a step-by-step how-to guide to organizing a forecasting meetup. Timestamps 1:08: Review of September forecasting meetup 2:08: Polymarket's commitment to community-building 3:03: October forecasting meetup 7:03: Interview with Glidden begins 8:29: Working with a partner 9:42: Sensitivity to rejection 12:48: Nate Silver's...

David Glidden (@dglid) draws lessons from the sports betting world for building the forecasting community. Timestamps 0:00: Intro begins 0:09: Saul Munn 1:26: David Glidden 1:52: Washington DC Forecasting and Prediction Markets Meetup 6:54: Interview with Glidden begins 13:32: Importance of building forecasting community 14:39: Effective altruism 22:02: DC Forecasting and Prediction Markets Meetup...

Pratik Chougule summarizes the latest developments in the legal battle between Kalshi and the CFTC on election betting. Pratik Chougule and Mick Bransfield do a deep dive into the CFTC's arguments in front of DC federal district court Judge Jia Cobb.  Timestamps 0:00: Pratik introduces segment with Bransfield 1:43: Update on latest in Kalshi-CFTC legal battle 9:34: Bransfield segment begins 11:18:...

Political gambling legend 50Pence challenges Alex Chan for the SSG Title Belt on the question of who will win the Trump-Harris debate. Chan and 50Pence also discuss which mention markets will hit on Polymarket and how many more Trump-Harris debates there will be before the election. Timestamps 3:49: Interview begins 4:38: How Chan won the Title Belt 6:54: 50Pence introduction 8:26: Title Belt bet...