Simply Economics

Another cut in Chinese banks’ reserve requirements shows that the PBoC is more interested in supporting economic growth than it is worried about containing inflation. The new Italian government has no inflation to worry about but it also wants to give its economy a lift, even if it does mean breaking the EU Commission’s fiscal rules. In both cases, international investors do not seem impressed.

Rates look to go up at tomorrow's FOMC as attention focuses on the extent of future hikes and risk of recession. In the UK, Brexit developments are becoming more testy and include the chance for a second referendum. While in Italy, fiscal debt is the topic and its implications for policy across the continent.

Initial effects of this year's U.S.-China trade war, whether on trade or the yuan or U.S. Treasuries, are still unfolding and that was before this week's U.S. actions against China. No change is the theme for the European Central Bank and Bank of England as well as the Swiss National Bank where trouble for emerging- market currencies, and resulting strength for the Swiss franc, is a special factor...

The European Central Bank is expected to keep its easing bias and the Bank of England it's tightening bias at this week's meetings. In the U.S., a tightening labor market is raising questions over wage inflation while in Japan, earthquakes and typhoons are raising third-quarter risks.

US economic data have been slowing slightly but not expectations for Friday's employment report. Australia is enjoying its 27th straight year without recession amid a solid outlook including for non-mining industries. Too solid are the gains underway for the Swiss Franc as increasing turmoil hits the emerging markets.

Overall growth continues to flatten in Europe while flat wages, rising housing costs and failure to modernize are behind a leadership change in Australia. In the U.S., early third-quarter data are mixed though a big jump in the consumer's assessment of the labor market is hinting at a very strong August employment report.

Despite strength in Germany, Eurozone manufacturing is in technical recession while key data out of China, both industrial production and retail sales, are lower than expected. Lower than expected is also the result for U.S. import and export prices as businesses absorb higher costs and as tariff-related effects on metals fade.

The discussion revolves around questions of labour mobility and what it means to matching jobs and skills in a tight market. The Reserve Bank of Australia remains on hold for two years. Germany’s worrisome manufacturing sector. Will the Bank of England increase rates again?

The Bank of Japan, to the surprise of some, is keeping its easing efforts at full force while the Federal Reserve is expected to make no policy change in a Wednesday statement, however, that may have a hawkish edge. A move higher for core inflation is good news for the European Central Bank though slowing second-quarter growth isn't, while for the Bank of England a rate hike on Thursday would give...

Will the Bank of Japan make changes at month end to its aggressive quantitative easing program? The European Central Bank is expected to hold policy steady at this week's meeting but there are still questions over the 2019 outlook . And for the Fed, a retaliatory rate hike to assert its independence at next week's FOMC may be out of the question but its rate-hike path, pressure from the administra...

Jerome Powell isn't making waves in his semi-annual testimony, while lack of progress in Brexit and lack of variation in Chinese GDP are also topics of interest.

Our panel updates building risks in the Brexit drama, the inflow of new workers in the US job market, and the choices the Bank of Canada faces in their coming meeting.

Trade worries are beginning to affect export-driven economies in Europe while ongoing effects of import tariffs are boosting U.S. orders, inventories and especially backlogs for steel and aluminum.

Tariffs already appear to be an issue for China's central bank while the issue has yet to be a focus for the Federal Reserve. In Europe, central banks have been cautious and may prove more hawkish than accommodative.

An end to quantitative easing doesn't mean the European Central Bank is turning hawkish. Also discussed is the Swiss National Bank and its fight to lift inflation and limit currency appreciation as well as the play between weakness and strength in the U.S. housing market.

Winding down of stimulus, despite weak Eurozone growth, is a possible outcome for this week's ECB meeting while a rate hike, given scarcity in the U.S. labor market, appears a certainty for the Federal Reserve.

U.S. tariffs and retaliatory tariffs are posing new questions for the global outlook with their initial economic impact beginning to unfold. Risks from Italy and from a tightening U.S. labor market are also discussed.

Strength without inflation is once again the call for Friday's U.S. employment report while the forecast for Italy, and by direct extension the euro, is rising uncertainty.

The Royal Wedding was definitely big and enough to give a boost to UK GDP, while in the US it's manufacturing, not the consumer, that's the economic driver.

Consumer spending in the US got off to a decent second-quarter start as did the Chinese industrial sector, in contrast to the UK where weaker growth is raising questions over Bank of England policy.

Low growth and low inflation raise new doubts over the end of quantitative easing in Europe and rate hikes in the UK, while in the U.S. the focus is shifting to the risk of higher inflation. We also update the latest on Chinese economic data and trade talks.

Slowing growth is the theme in Europe but less so in the U.S. where inflation is making a sudden appearance. For Japan, however, steady is the theme.

GDP forecasts for first-quarter growth in the Eurozone and U.S. are subdued while in Japan, the struggle to boost inflation continues.

Data out of Europe have been disappointing with China steady and very predictable. In the U.S., tariff effects are beginning to appear.

Hints of capacity stress and price pressures are appearing in US factory data but only hints, while factory production may actually be holding back growth in Europe.