Simply Economics

Our panel discusses what appears to be an approaching rate cut in Australia and the effect the US-China trade breakdown are having in Asia. Weak data out of the US and what this means for Federal Reserve policy are also discussed as are risks to the euro from the pending European Parliament elections.

How will the hikes underway in US-China tariffs affect the world's two largest economies and how is Europe responding? Jeremy Hawkins and Mark Pender also update the latest economic data and key pending data to come.

A slew of European data show improvement to what are still, however, modest rates of growth. Data out of the US have been less strong than the headlines would suggest especially regarding the consumer. For global monetary policy, the outlook remains wait-and-see with perhaps a dovish tilt.

The US and China may be on the rebound though growth in Europe is uneven and is being held back by German manufacturing. Whether slowing in trade and weakness in manufacturing is being offset by strength in domestic services is a topic of discussion as are risks tied to the coming Spanish election and extended Japanese holiday.

Whether the Federal Reserve or the Bank of India, executive power has been flexing its muscle in an effort to loosen monetary policy. Jeremy Hawkins and Mark Pender also discuss the latest economic numbers especially from the manufacturing sector where revisions have improved the European outlook.

Solid snap backs for U.S. employment and European industrial production hint at momentum going into the second quarter and raise the question whether seasonal adjustments are to blame for the fourth-quarter slowdown. The outlook for central bank policies are also discussed and the very latest on Brexit is updated.

The outlook for interest rates in India and whether politics are at play is one of our panel's topics as well as housing in Australia and what trade talks mean for China. Soft data are the theme in the U.S. and what they may or may not mean for Friday's employment report, while Europe is headlined by weak core inflation, contraction for German manufacturing, and the continuing saga of Brexit.

How much of a risk is mounting red ink in the U.S. and how much good news, amid Brexit uncertainty, may already be priced in the pound? Our panel also discusses central bank responses to the global slowdown.

Status quo may be the expectation but surprises and nuances at this week's round of central bank meetings are always possible. And surprises are the norm for Brexit where the latest twists and turns, and what they would mean for the pound, are explored.

Whether it's the U.S. employment report or retail sales or European industrial production, large swings are appearing in the monthly reports that are reawakening questions over the reliability of seasonal adjustments during the winter months. Our panel also discusses unfolding events over Brexit and how they already have and may in the future affect economic performance.

The U.S. may be the new victim of the global slowdown at the same time that incoming data from Europe and Asia aren't showing improvement. Jeremy Hawkins and Mark Pender go through the latest numbers and discuss what they mean for central bank monetary policy.

Global central banks are increasingly taking note of slowdowns including in Europe where industrial production is sinking and the Italian economy in recession. U.S. growth is still solid with demand for labor unusually strong though a second government shutdown and escalating trade actions against China remain major wild cards.

Jeremy Hawkins assesses the latest economic data out of Europe and outlines contagion risks tied to technical recession in Italy, while Mark Pender updates indications on the U.S. outlook and discusses the Federal Reserve's shift to neutral.

Our panel discusses the outlook for Asia and whether the Reserve Bank of Australia will indeed stick to its tightening bias, which is a similar question for the FOMC and how dovish they might sound at this week's meeting. For Europe, risks include general slowing especially for Italy and of course Brexit and how the markets and the Bank of England are reacting to events.

Chinese GDP is slowing, European industrial production is at a standstill and the Washington shutdown is holding back the United States. Discussion includes why U.S. indicators are still favorable and what the best indicator is to judge Brexit developments.

The Brexit question for the U.K. may or may not be in a late end game as Jeremy Hawkins explores the political issues and economic risks. For the U.S., Mark Pender talks about what economic numbers are still available and what the outlook is for coming employment data and whether they will be affected by the government shutdown.

With Brexit hobbling, Germany slowing and the U.S. government shutting down, the New Year opens with as much uncertainty and investor caution as ever. Jeremy Hawkins and Mark Pender discuss the latest details including which U.S. indicators are affected by the shutdown and which are not.

An early signal on what to expect for 2019 will come on the third week of January when the House of Commons votes on Teresa May's Brexit withdraw bill. For the U.S., the first signal for 2019 will come from Wednesday's FOMC forecast and whether the markets can expect fewer rate hikes ahead, or perhaps no hikes at all.

The U.S. employment report for November was on the soft side, setting up what could be a backing off in 2019 rate hikes at next week's FOMC. Also discussed are outlooks for Brexit, European Central Bank policy, and riot-stricken France.

A run down of central banks from Canada to India to Europe points to steady monetary policy and following last week's dovish turn from Jerome Powell, fewer rates may now be the call for the Federal Reserve. Our panel also updates Brexit risks, the latest data out of the Eurozone, and a possible upside jolt for Friday's U.S. employment report.

Theresa May appears to be well short of the votes needed in the House of Commons to secure her agreement with the Eurozone, raising questions over her leadership and also whether new amendments or new elections are in store. For the U.S., early indications for fourth-quarter GDP are mixed with net exports continuing to weaken while inventories continue to build.

A Fed tightening may be just a matter of time but sluggish European household demand leaves an ECB rate hike a distant prospect. Little excitement is expected from the week’s RBA and RBNZ announcements but speculation about a Brexit deal should keep investors focussed on UK financial markets, just in case...

US GDP proved strong on the surface in the third quarter but mixed in the details while expectations for Friday's employment report are upbeat though year-on-year wages are expected to jump. In Europe, flash GDP data for the third quarter show growth slowing to a 4-year low with the political shake up in Germany adding further uncertainty.

The Chinese stock market has turned volatile as the nation's economic data have slowed. The US has third-quarter GDP coming out on Friday but the following week's wage data may have more impact on Federal Reserve policy. In Europe, Italy's budget-busting plans are not helping market stability and are proving a negative for the euro.

Pessimism is back in front as Brexit negotiations, still snagged by the Irish border, hit yet another climax this week. For Italy, budget busting plans and possible EU protests are the focus. A budget bust in the US is also playing out and is giving a Keynesian boost to what looks like another strong quarter for GDP.