Rosenberg Round-Up

On this week’s episode of the Rosenberg Round-Up, we discuss what’s behind the recent rebound in equities and the changing cross-asset picture, as well as what the 28% downward revision in employment growth is telling us. We also shed light on what lingering risks in the Commercial Real Estate sector mean for bank stocks. Visit our sponsor Kalshi today and get $20 in credit to start trading : http...

The September FOMC meeting is about how much to cut rates | A look at the Harris vs. Trump polls and what it means for markets | The case for gold is stronger than ever   Visit our sponsor Kalshi today and get $20 in credit to start trading : https://kalshi.onelink.me/1r91/rosenberg For a 30-day free trial of our research, click here: ⁠https://web.rosenbergresearch.com/RosenbergRoundupTrial⁠ Send...

In our latest special interview episode, we welcome seasoned market economist and current Columbia Business School professor Brett House to discuss the Yen carry trade reversal sending shockwaves through markets, all things Powell and the Fed with a special look at Jackson Hole, Trump vs. Harris and the Bank of Canada   The Yen carry trade reversal (1:35) | The Fed’s assessment of the U.S. economy...

Taking stock after a volatile week | Macro data will drive markets | Going defensive   Visit our sponsor Kalshi today and get $20 in credit to start trading : https://kalshi.onelink.me/1r91/rosenberg For a 30-day free trial of our research, click here: ⁠https://web.rosenbergresearch.com/RosenbergRoundupTrial⁠ Send us your questions and requests at: information@rosenbergresearch.com In This Episode...

The evolving global rate picture | Earnings to drive market in macro-lite week ahead | How to invest in the land of the rising Yen   Visit our sponsor Kalshi today and get $20 in credit to start trading : https://kalshi.onelink.me/1r91/rosenberg For a 30-day free trial of our research, click here: ⁠⁠⁠⁠ ⁠https://web.rosenbergresearch.com/RosenbergRoundupTrial⁠ Send us your questions and requests at...

The bull run has come to a grinding halt as large-cap tech retreats from overstretched valuations. But the concerning macro narrative driving the rest of the market deserves more attention. Visit our sponsor  Kalshi today and get $20 in credit to start trading :  https://kalshi.onelink.me/1r91/rosenberg For a  30-day free trial  of our research, click here:  ⁠⁠⁠⁠ ⁠https://web.rosenbergresearch.com...

Markets take a sharp turn | June activity data surprised to the upside, but Q2 GDP unlikely to impress | Emerging investment opportunities across the pond as the U.K. enters a period of stability Visit our sponsor Kalshi today and get $20 in credit to start trading : https://kalshi.onelink.me/1r91/rosenberg For a 30-day free trial of our research, click here: ⁠⁠⁠ ⁠https://web.rosenbergresearch.com...

Powell signaled the need for more “confidence” in his congressional testimony – did a light inflation print deliver it? We also touch on political and economic developments in Europe, and shine our spotlight on the upcoming earnings season.  Visit our sponsor Kalshi today and get $20 in credit to start trading : https://kalshi.onelink.me/1r91/rosenberg For a 30-day free trial of our research, clic...

In our latest special interview episode, we welcome back our Founder and President, David Rosenberg, to get his views on a perplexing stock market, what we can learn from the past, and how to think about the U.S. election – among much else. Is this even a bull market? (0:30) David's Philosophy on Investing in this market (2:57) What is the discount rate telling us right now? ( 5:24) How the av...

We reflect on a week dominated by global politics, and shine our spotlight on what the shifting probabilities around the U.S. election mean for markets   Visit our sponsor  Kalshi and get a $20 credit :  https://kalshi.onelink.me/1r91/rosenberg For a  30-day free trial  of our research, click here:  ⁠⁠⁠⁠ ⁠https://web.rosenbergresearch.com/RosenbergRoundupTrial⁠ Please get in touch at:  information...

This week we cover a mixed bag in data, check in on Canadian inflation, and shine our spotlight on the U.S. savings rate and its impact on consumption. The Week in Review (1:05) — Markets took a breather as the economic data sent mixed signals The Week Ahead (4:48) — All eyes on nonfarm payrolls The Spotlight (8:03) — What the ultra-low savings rate tells us bout the U.S. consumer Canada Corner (1...

This week we cover the extreme optimism in equity markets against a backdrop of softening economic data. We shine our spotlight on how declining pricing power and margin compression are bringing down inflation in the U.S. The Week in Review (1:03) — The bulls charge; retail sales slump; Bank of England stands pat The Week Ahead (6:37) —Europe politics comes to the forefront in a data-light week Th...

This week we cover the Fed’s puzzling projections, falling inflation, and the European elections. We shine our spotlight on the ups and downs of a consumer recession. The Week in Review (1:15) — Did the Fed even look at the soft inflation report that dropped during its meeting? The Week Ahead (12:44) — The BoE rate decision headlines the week, while retail sales and industrial production data drop...

This week we cover the onset of the global cutting cycle, as the BoC and the ECB took important first steps this week. Then we shine our spotlight beyond the S&P 500, arguing that small is beautiful. The Week in Review (0:40) — The BoC and the ECB ease and the U.S. data softens The Week Ahead (6:56) — A potential damp squib from the FOMC — but keep an eye on CPI The Spotlight (8:06) — Looking...

This week we highlight the pile-up of negative data revisions that are changing the cyclical picture, we touch on the outlook for the Fed as its peers prepare to cut, and we shine our spotlight on new long-term growth outlook estimates for the world’s largest economies. The Week in Review (1:45) — The latest Beige Book, GDP revisions, and Dimon on private credit The Week Ahead (7:14) — The ECB and...

In our latest occasional interview episode, we welcome Gerhard Massenbauer, chief analyst at Treasury Scout, to the Rosenberg Roundup. Gerhardt is an incisive commentator with over 25 years of experience in global and European FX and rates who is never afraid to make a bold call. We cover the opportunities opening up in Europe, what the sequencing of rate cuts will mean for investors, how the post...

This week, we cover the latest signal from earnings, and we go toe-to-toe with the KC Fed on household balance sheets The Week in Review (0:36) — AI-related stocks soar on strong earnings while consumers tighten their belts The Week Ahead (4:11) — The Beige Book will bring the latest signal from the real economy The Spotlight (5:01) — Why it’s wrong to think that a “record” low debt-to-income rati...

This week, we cover the trifecta of soft data that’s sent stocks to new highs. Our spotlight shines on Emerging Market stocks, and what the (eventual) fall in global interest rates will mean for them. The Week in Review (1:21) — Why softening U.S. data has pushed the S&P 500 to new highs The Spotlight (8:42) — Not your grandfather’s Emerging Markets For a 30-day free trial of our research, cli...

This week, what a slowdown in nonfarm payrolls meant for markets, and how to position for the opportunity in America’s aging capital stock. The Week in Review (1:06) — A rare weak employment report and the Swedish Riksbank cuts rates The Week Ahead (7:19) — CPI and retail sales headline a big week for macro data The Spotlight (7:41) — Who will benefit from the replacement and repair of America’s p...

This week, we look back on Powell’s pushback, shine our spotlight on the labor market data, and drop by Canada to check in on growth prospects. The Week in Review (1:30) — Powell holds the line on rates guidance, and what earnings reports are telling us about the U.S. consumer The Week Ahead (7:32) — The Bank of England meeting headlines a crowded international calendar The Spotlight (8:47) — We d...

This week, we dig into the combination of weak growth and hot consumer price inflation that nobody saw coming in the U.S. GDP report. Our spotlight is focused on Central Bank gold buying. The Week in Review (0:54) — Our take on Q1 GDP, U.S. equities, and the risks in private markets The Week Ahead (8:10) — Nonfarm payrolls will headline a busy week The Spotlight (8:33) — Sustained central bank gol...

We welcome author, investor, activist, thinker, and co-CIO of advisory firm Evergreen Gavekal, David "The Haymaker" Hay onto the Rosenberg Round-Up.  Our interview with Dave marks the inaugural episode of a series of standalone interviews that will run alongside the weekly Roundup on a (roughly) 1-month cadence. In the series, we'll take you deeper on a range of topics with recognize...

This week, our spotlight is on our recent report on the wealth effects and its role as the driving force behind spending. The Week in Review (1:19) — Markets at an inflection point as Fed cuts get pushed back The Spotlight (8:22) — Wealth effects have put the wind in the U.S. consumer’s sails Canada Corner (13:20) — We give the 2024 Budget a D- grade For a 30-day free trial of our research, click...

This week we try to extract some meaning from a weird and wacky Wednesday, when a slightly warmer-than-expected CPI number sent markets haywire. Later, we shine our spotlight on the implications of the gold run-up for mining stocks and silver prices. The Week in Review (1:19) — Weird Wednesday The Week Ahead (7:18) — Listen carefully to the Fedspeak The Spotlight (8:44) — Will silver prices and mi...