Robert Young - YFS Private Client Market & Economy Audio-Email

Friends, On Wednesday, our "Knight in Shining Armor" Brendan Pederson (reporter from "Punchbowl News") showed up to the post-FOMC meeting and asked one indirect simple question to Chairman Powell which triggered algorithms to react exactly as I had hoped as expressed in the 1 FEB audio. Not only did the Market's reaction significantly impact our investments and cause a re-organization of our posit...

Friends, Today is built on Hope! We expect Chairman Powell and his Team to raise interest rates by .25 basis points (1/4 of 1%) What we are HOPING for is language in his speech after the announcement which has themes like, "our next move will be data-dependent" or "we're going to wait and see", etc. This will excite the algorithms into a Buying Frenzy. If this occurs, and the Market rises to 4,150...

Friends, Last week, we reviewed the recession indicators we dial up & monitor if we get warning pings from one or two. However, what does it matter if we can’t translate the data into actionable items? Right?? Today, we’ll look at THE Opportunity which may present itself on Thursday (12th) and my plans for capitalizing on it, should it come to fruition. From there, we’ll look 6 to 9 months int...

Friends Today we’ll cover the relationship between Inflation and Employment and why the Federal Reserve is committed to increasing unemployment! Hint: Today’s announcement that Unemployment has dropped from 3.7% to 3.5% will make February’s FOMC meeting an interesting one. I’ll close out by covering more of the data we monitor. Robert Bank Lending – the last item I cover: It’s NOT high interest ra...

Friends, Wall Street money managers are fixated on monthly inflationary indicators like the Consumer Price Index (CPI) with the expectation that Chairman Powell and the Federal Open Market Committee will stop raising the Federal Fund rate and possibly begin lowering it if inflation indicators start dropping. They are already retreating from their highs - giving people the impression that a recessi...

Friends, Thought that I'd use the lull in the week between Christmas and New Year to share a class on US Treasuries and their use as indicators of recessions as well as recent research we've done which shows they may also indicate when the Federal Reserve will stop raising rates, pause or possibly initiate rate reductions. This could be a very exciting development for us all... Enjoy the Day, Robe...

Friends, After two weeks of watching the value of the Market melt away (along with our account value), today's rally was an early Christmas gift. Will it last? Nah... it's just the Season. We'll take advantage of the next few days with the knowledge that, after 3 January, about the time the VISA bills begin to arrive, the music will fade, lights will be turned on and the party will end. Until then...

Friends, Yesterday, I did mention that Chairman Powell's choice of words could trigger a Market Rally or Sell Off. Well, I was correct about the cause/effect correlation :) He certainly used very specific & aggressive words! Words like..."restrictive policy", "extremely tight labor market" (hint - a nice way of framing high unemployment) and these gems..."The Federal Reserve is NOT CLOSE to ending...

Friends, We’re on standby until 2PM today. That’s when the FOMC meeting adjourns, and Chairman Powell hits the podium to update us on the FOMC’s progress in their War on Inflation. It’s not the expected 50 basis point increase (1/2 %) that we care about, it will be the committee’s plan for future interest rate increases. If we hear combinations like: “wait & watch”, “ pause & observe”, “we’re near...

Friends, Today starts a week full of data that Chairman Powell and Team Federal Reserve will use to gauge the effectiveness of their interest rate increases on lowering inflation. Lower inflation numbers could bring us the Red Rider BB Gun / Pony we want for Christmas. Higher numbers could bring us a bag of coal. Today, I'll review which data the Federal Open Market Committee will use in their 14...

Friends, This is a short week for the Market with low trading volume. Last week saw chaotic Market news which could carry into this week. Today's audio dishes up a small helping of Economic reality with a reminder of the numeric goals the Federal Reserve is committed to reaching and the effect this will eventually have on our Economy. We know what is coming and have a plan of action which guides u...

Friends, Ignited by several sources, including a Consumer Price Index (CPI) report showing inflation was at 7.7% (Hell – this came in better than the “best case” 7.9% I predicted in the 10 NOV audio), last Thursday saw the Market rise +3%. While we will follow the advice of the Edgar Winter Group and take the “Free Ride” - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sGB-8_cNgpk We will also keep in mind the s...

Friends, Today's CPI report is the first of five reports the Federal Reserve will use to make their next Fed Fund Rate decision in December. If the CPI rate comes in lower than expected, it could trigger a rally pushing the Market (S&P 500) to 4,000+. Regardless, our Economy will go into a Recession next year. We are ready. HAPPY BIRTHDAY to THE UNITED STATES MARINE CORPS SEMPER FI! Robert

Friends, Today Chairman Powell will announce a Federal Fund Rate increase of .75 basis points (3/4 of 1%). This is a forgone conclusion. The focus of every Investor, Trader, Hedge Fund & Pension Manager, and every computer algorithm will be on the statements he makes after concerning future rate increases - both in frequency and level. Buckle up... Robert

Friends, Now that AVEO has been sold to LG Chemical, let's walk through the final stages as the AVEO is terminated, LG Chemical buys our shares of AVEO, how and when we will receive payment and the potential tax consequences from selling our shares to LG Chemical. Robert

Friends, A hard Recession is on the horizon. I'll cover when, why it will occur, what to expect and how we'll get through it. I'm also covering the issues effecting the Markets daily. Finally, we'll end with a little positivity about our little bio-tech investment - AVEO (Hint - How does a CASH offer to BUY your shares sound?) Robert

Friends, Today's CPI report not only shows that the cost of goods and services have increased since last month, at 6.6%, costs are higher now than ever - exceeding the previous high of 6.5% in March - 5 months ago! This is undeniable proof that inflation is increasing, and the Federal Reserve must aggressively raise rates to stop the advance. Unfortunately, the necessary action will likely drive u...

Friends, Most people aren’t aware why Shanghai continues to experience COVID outbreaks, apartment buildings are welded shut, entire city blocks are fenced – trapping residents, 1/3 to 2/3 of the Port of Shanghai is habitually closed, the significance of 16 October and the event which could potentially flood supply chains with goods and materials thereby triggering an End of Year Market rally. Afte...

Friends, This is going to be an interesting week as three forces collide: It's the End of the Month AND the End of the Quarter which means it's "Put Lipstick on the Pig" as Fund Managers scramble to “pretty up” their portfolios and squeeze some gain to show investors. They are swimming against the whirlpool dragging stock prices down as the Market wakes up to the fact that Chairman Powell has been...

Friends, Yes, today at 2:30Pm EST, the Federal Reserve announces the next Fed Fund Rate hike – Blah, Blah Blah… Don't pay attention to any of it. The focus that we and every other investment manager will be lasered on will be the possibility of a rate increases in October, November, and December. Today I cover Market drivers and the temporary heights we expect the Market to climb to before heading...

Friends, For weeks, the Federal Reserve has telegraphed their intent to battle inflation by raising rates - regardless of the bloodbath it created. I've expressed this in previous audios and planned accordingly. In this audio, I update you on your performance and how we will continue to profit from the inevitable Recession (IMO - 2nd Quarter 2023) and Market decline. Robert

Friends, Recently, a handful of misguided souls challenged my pronouncement that, "we would not enter a recession in 2022" They have been schooled. Now, I'll share with you the factors that go into determining a recession and REALLY what you should be concerned with... HINT... It's not a recession 9which will occur but not until mid-2023) Robert

Friends, For years, Walgreens languished under the heavy debt and missed opportunity under the leadership of a visionless CEO. Last year, a new CEO with vision and determination took over the helm. The progress is slow but steady and our investment will bear this out over time. Robert

Friends, First - In my head, I had the correct coverage but my mouth went in a different direction. Verizon covers 200 million people - not 20 million. This investment is an example of the importance of a process in determining the viability of an investment. Robert

Friends, Usually, our "Spotlight" is on a position we are invested in. Today's "Spotlight" is a bit premature. On Friday, GOOGLE will issue a 20:1 split - dropping the stock price from it's current $2,200/$2,400 per share level to an accessible $100+ level. We will take advantage of the lower "Entrance Fee" and initiate a position. Robert