Risky Business with Nate Silver and Maria Konnikova

In the final episode of Risky Business, Nate and Maria check in on the predictions they made back in January for 2025, and then talk about what they think might be in store in 2026. For more from Nate and Maria, subscribe to their newsletters: The Leap  from Maria Konnikova Silver Bulletin  from Nate Silver  See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

We look back at Nate and Maria’s interview with former professional poker player Vanessa Selbst—the only woman ever to reach the number one ranking on the Global Poker Index. They discuss her experiences playing poker, her move into the world of finance, and why, at her first job after poker, she kept a giant bag of pennies underneath her desk. For more from Nate and Maria, subscribe t...

Every year, the World Happiness Report comes out and the Nordic countries rejoice. Just kidding – sort of. Small, homogenous countries like Finland (2025’s happiest country) often top the list. But what does that really mean? Nate and Maria dive into the methodology of this research. As well as what it reveals (and doesn’t) about happiness. For more from Nate and Maria, subscribe...

When Nate’s book “On The Edge” released in 2024, Maria interviewed him about why he wrote it and what we can learn from the enigmatic risk-loving community he calls The River. Get your copy here For more from Nate and Maria, subscribe to their newsletters: The Leap  from Maria Konnikova Silver Bulletin  from Nate Silver  See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy info...

We’re closing out the year with some of our (and your) favorite episodes to date. First up: Nate and Maria’s conversation with Philadelphia 76ers President of Basketball Operations Daryl Morey about bringing game theory and probabilistic thinking to the NBA. For more from Nate and Maria, subscribe to their newsletters: The Leap  from Maria Konnikova Silver Bulletin  from Nate...

Nate and Maria give out their second annual awards for decision-making in 2025: Who made the best decision this year? Who made the worst? Who were 2025’s biggest nits and degens? And which host had the best poker year? For more from Nate and Maria, subscribe to their newsletters: The Leap  from Maria Konnikova Silver Bulletin  from Nate Silver  See omnystudio.com/listener for...

Nate has ridden in a Waymo, and it was like stepping into the future. Maria’s never been in one, but she’s been stuck behind a lot of autonomous vehicles… They swap human-driven car horror stories and discuss some of the risks and benefits of a future full of self-driving cars. From the New York Times: The Data on Self-Driving Cars Is Clear. We Have to Change Course. For more fr...

Maria finally gets to reveal a project she’s been working on that’s been kept under wraps, and then it’s movie night on Risky Business! Nate and Maria talk about their favorite poker movies and explain why portrayals of poker for a movie audience often don’t get the game quite right. Plus, they share what poker movie they’d like to make and who’d play them in it...

Nate and Maria game out the comparative benefits (and risks) of flying vs. driving vs. taking the train when traveling for the holidays. They also discuss Olivia Nuzzi’s new memoir, her ex-fiancé Ryan Lizza’s substack revelations about her, and the current state of journalistic ethics. For more from Nate and Maria, subscribe to their newsletters: The Leap  from Maria Konnik...

This week we answer a question from listener Brandon, who’s noticed a rise in performance-enhancing drugs outside of sports. Nate and Maria discuss their own philosophies on PEDs, their impact on equilibriums, and what people risk when they decide to juice. For more from Nate and Maria, subscribe to their newsletters: The Leap  from Maria Konnikova Silver Bulletin  from Nate Silver...

The WSOP’s NO LIMIT docuseries has been scrubbed from the internet following revelations that it includes AI-generated content, despite creator Dustin Ianotti’s explanation that the material “tracked closely” with other quotes and was only used for “faster scene transitions and narrative pacing." For more from Nate and Maria, subscribe to their newsletters: The Leap &...

Most people are bad at spotting bluffs and tells – but there are ways to get better. Nate and Maria discuss tips and tricks from the poker tables with a live audience at Ludlow House in New York City. For more from Nate and Maria, subscribe to their newsletters: The Leap  from Maria Konnikova Silver Bulletin  from Nate Silver  See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy informatio...

After months of resistance, President Trump made a striking reversal on the Epstein files this week, signaling he would sign legislation to release them. Nate and Maria discuss whether this is the start of a “lame duck” spiral for Trump, and whether (or to what extent) it will impact his tenure if the files do finally come to light. For more from Nate and Maria, subscribe to their news...

Humanity’s attempts to achieve artificial superintelligence will be our downfall, according to If Anyone Builds It, Everyone Dies . That’s the new book out by AI experts Nates Soares and Eliezer Yudkowsky. And while their provocation may feel extreme in this moment when AI slop abounds and the media is hyping a bubble on the verge of bursting, Soares is so convinced of his argument tha...

Despite a blue wave in recent state and local elections, Senate Democrats caved to Republican demands on the shutdown, giving up the health care subsidies they started the shutdown over nearly 50 days ago. Nate and Maria argue that the Democrats are squandering their momentum, and discuss the consequences for key figures like Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer. They also reflect on the election...

From social media and dynamic pricing to meme stocks and AI hype, gamification has taken over our lives—and a recent op-ed argues that it’s even spread into our economy, driven by Trump. Nate and Maria discuss the psychology behind the “casino economy” and why speculation and risk are so addicting. They talk about what it means when governments, businesses, and individuals...

With traffic down, gambling down, and hotel prices bottoming out, everyone’s asking: Is Las Vegas dead? Nate and Maria wade into the frenzy with some real data and hard-won experience. They talk about why casinos are struggling, what this indicates for the broader economy, and why high-end steak houses are, in fact, a recession indicator. For more from Nate and Maria, subscribe to their news...

Last week, two federal indictments and several high-profile arrests rocked the NBA. One indictment accused defendants of sharing insider information to cheat at sports betting, and the other accused over 30 co-conspirators, including members of various mafia families, of rigging poker games. For more from Nate and Maria, subscribe to their newsletters: The Leap  from Maria Konnikova Silver Bu...

Nate and Maria sit down with the elite amateur runner Nicholas Thompson (who also happens to be the CEO of The Atlantic) to talk about his new book The Running Ground. They discuss what running can teach about productivity and fulfillment, his favorite brand of gels, and…his late-father’s brothel in Bali. For more from Nate and Maria, subscribe to their newsletters: The Leap  fro...

We have a special episode for you today! In which Nate and Maria join their fellow Pushkin hosts to dive deep into the art of failure. Tim Harford of Cautionary Tales shares stories of minor mistakes with massive consequences. Jonathan Goldstein of Heavyweight speaks with his friend, the writer Sheila Heti about the cost of mistakes and whether we're really in control of how many we make. And, our...

Over the weekend, some 5 million people across the United States marched in ‘No Kings’ protests. Nate and Maria sit down to talk about why this matters, the psychology of protests, and how Democratic strategists can build on the momentum going forward. For more from Nate and Maria, subscribe to their newsletters: The Leap  from Maria Konnikova Silver Bulletin  from Nate Silve...

The 2025 Nobel Prizes have now been announced, and Maria convinces Nate to learn about the winners. They discuss the selection process, the economic award for research on “creative destruction,” and what prizes they should be considered for. For more from Nate and Maria, subscribe to their newsletters: The Leap  from Maria Konnikova Silver Bulletin  from Nate Silver  See...

Last week, Paramount bought digital news site The Free Press for $150 million, and made one of its founders, Bari Weiss, the new editor-in-chief of CBS. Everyone has opinions on Weiss…and so do Nate and Maria. They debate whether Weiss has the expertise to be editor-in-chief of a TV network, discuss what her appointment says about Paramount CEO David Ellison’s vision for the company,...

Pioneering primatologist and anthropologist Jane Goodall died last week at 91. Nate and Maria talk about Jane’s career path and how her research influenced the fields of both animal and human cognition. They also discuss the significance of the outsider status she held when she began her research, and what everyone can learn from outsiders. For more from Nate and Maria, subscribe to their ne...

Nate and Maria discuss how and when the government shutdown is most likely to end. Then, they turn to OpenAI’s newest release: Sora 2, an AI video generation app that allows users to create a video from a text prompt. As Maria struggles to think of some possible positive uses for this app, Nate considers what its release tells us about Open AI's goals for the future. From The Information: Wh...